Good morning. Canada built a boatload of new condos that nobody wants to buy now – more on that below, along with Mark Carney’s hopes for a deal on softwood lumber and Genie Bouchard’s last tennis match. But first:
Today’s headlinesOpen this photo in gallery:
Toronto’s preconstruction condo market is in rough shape.Sammy Kogan/The Globe and Mail
Real estateBoxed in
It is not a good time to be a new condo. No one wants to build you: Developers in Vancouver are cancelling projects and laying off staff. No one wants to buy you: Toronto’s preconstruction sales just slid to their lowest level in 32 years. No one wants to keep you, so they’re willing to take a hit: 96 per cent of Calgary’s condos sold below asking in the first quarter of 2025.
Now there’s nothing left to do but sit around vacant. As of the end of June, a record 2,478 new condo units were languishing on the market in the Toronto and Hamilton region. That’s double the amount from last year. It’s five times higher than two years ago. It’s also probably not even the true number, according to Shaun Hildebrand, president of industry research firm Urbanation. He suspects developers have a bunch of condos on their books that aren’t up for sale yet, because some preconstruction buyers are still trying to close.
And closing really, really sucks in Toronto right now. Urbanation found that the vast majority of condos ready to be occupied in the past three months were presold at an average price of $1,187 per square foot. But lenders don’t usually provide a mortgage for the amount a buyer agreed to pay. They’re interested in the condo’s current value – and that now averages $903 per square foot, a 24-per-cent decline from its original price. In order to close, the buyer is on the hook for the difference. That shakes out to more than $170,000 in a 600-square-foot unit.
“The market has gone from bad to terrible,” Hildebrand told The Globe’s real estate reporter Rachelle Younglai. And it isn’t poised to rebound any time soon. A record 17,117 units are still under construction and should be completed in the next six months, bringing the total number of condos in the Toronto and Hamilton area to 31,422. It would take more than five years to clear the glut of inventory if the pace of sales were at 2024 levels – which, of course, isn’t remotely the case. Urbanation reported a measly 533 condo sales in the first quarter of 2025, down 62 per cent from the same time last year. In the second quarter, just 502 units moved.
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Tiny units are a tough sell.Fred Lum/The Globe and Mail
It’s hardly a surprise that some developers are simply cutting their losses. Across the region, 21 condo projects – adding up to more than 4,400 units – have been cancelled in the past year and a half. Four projects were spiked in the last three months alone. Investors have similarly scurried away from the market, keenly aware that condos are no longer a money-making venture. Those investors used to account for at least 70 per cent of preconstruction sales.
But their absence provides an opportunity for people who’d rather not bunk in a shoebox. Real estate developers have geared condo designs to short-term buyers’ concerns: price and return on investment, rather than, you know, a unit that fits more than a twin-sized bed. However, developers are now rediscovering “end users,” otherwise known as folks who intend to live in the condo they buy. “We kept making units smaller and smaller and smaller,” Christopher Wein, chief operating officer of Equiton Developments, told The Globe. “Lo and behold, people don’t want them.”
So after one his condo projects in Toronto had a disappointing launch last year, Wein took apart the building and started again. He shed 25 units, which let him shift the mix from mostly studios and tiny one-bedrooms to larger condos with up to three bedrooms. He also bumped up the average unit size by about 10 per cent. That suddenly allowed for walk-in closets, double-sink bathrooms and even enough space for a king-sized bed. Or, at least, definitely a queen.
The Shot“Part of the reason why we don’t have a deal is that deal is not yet on the table.”Open this photo in gallery:
The Prime Minister on a steel-plant tour yesterday.Chris Young/The Canadian Press
A day after Prime Minister Mark Carney dashed expectations of tariff-free trade with the U.S., he refused to say what sort of permanent levy Canada would accept – though he did call a deal on softwood lumber “a top priority.” Read more about the negotiations here.
The WrapWhat else we’re following
At home: First Nations chiefs are skeptical about today’s meeting with Mark Carney over Bill C-5, which waives environmental reviews in order to fast-track major projects.
Abroad: A British military data breach that put roughly 19,000 Afghans at risk after the Taliban returned to power was kept secret for nearly two years.
On the clock: Unionized Canada Post workers will get the chance to vote directly on a new offer as of Monday.
Off the court: Wimbledon runner-up Genie Bouchard will retire from professional tennis at her home tournament in Montreal later this month.
Off the rails: In an extremely long Truth Social post, Donald Trump called the Jeffrey Epstein conspiracy a “hoax” and his own supporters “weaklings” who fell for it.
Off the books: The Giller Prize said it will be forced to shut down at the end of this year unless it secures millions of dollars in federal funding.
