WASHINGTON DC – Paul Goble, a former State Department special adviser and ex-CIA analyst, warns that US President Donald Trump’s recent 50-day ultimatum to Russia regarding a peace deal with Ukraine, coupled with the threat of sanctions, may backfire.
Goble suggests the move could inadvertently embolden the Kremlin, giving it relatively free hands for the next seven weeks to act rather than pressuring it towards peace.
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In an interview with Kyiv Post, Goble expressed grave concerns, stating that the Russians “don’t take this kind of ultimatum seriously.” He highlighted a historical pattern of past deadlines set by Trump that have been disregarded by Russian President Vladimir Putin, suggesting that the Kremlin views such pronouncements as mere posturing.
“I think the Russians don’t like the idea that the Americans think they can give them a deadline,” Goble emphasized, “but they are smart enough to realize that what the Americans have done is simply say we’re going to look away for seven weeks, and the Russians will then do what they want.” This interpretation, he warns, poses a “very serious problem for Ukraine.”
The timing of Trump’s deadline is particularly perilous, according to Goble. Coming in mid-July, it coincides with the “prime time for military advance” for Russian forces, as the ground is dry enough for significant troop and tank movements.
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“The 50-day limit has come at a time when Russians in the next seven weeks, which is to say taking us the rest of July through August into early September, is the prime time for military advance,” he explained. “The Russians understand that, and that’s how they read what was done.”
Goble’s analysis of Russian commentaries suggests that the Kremlin perceives itself as “winning” and views this 50-day period as “another victory.” He fears that Russia will exploit this window to inflict as much damage as possible on Ukraine.
“For seven weeks, they can behave as bad as they want, and while Trump has said he might cut 50 days to some shorter period, he probably won’t,” Goble stated. “And the Russians will do as much damage as they can to Ukraine.”
The next 46 days: a grim outlook
When asked about his expectations for the remaining 46 days of this period, Goble painted a bleak picture. He anticipates “more advances, territorial advances in the eastern efforts,” and a significant increase in Russian targeting of civilian areas.
“I think we’re going to see a lot more Russian targeting of civilian targets in the cities, not just military targets, but civilian targets,” he predicted. “I would expect deaths and injuries from Russian drone and missile attacks in the major cities will increase.”
Beyond the eastern front, Goble expressed a particular concern about a potential Russian thrust towards Odesa. “Given what we know about Russian strategic goals, I would expect to see a Russian thrust in the direction of Odesa, because Putin writers have been suggesting for some time that if we can reduce Ukraine to a landlocked country without a port on the Black Sea, we can gradually strangle it, even if we get a ‘peace’ out,” he detailed.
“I would expect to see a major Russian trust toward Odesa sometime in the next 46 days,” Goble added.
Should Odesa fall, Goble warned, Ukraine’s “ability to function” would be in “big trouble.”
The “Why 50 Days?” question
The rationale behind the 50-day figure remains elusive to Goble. He speculated that it may have been an arbitrary number “that came to someone in his head when he was thinking, what do I want to say?” rather than a “considered policy.”
However, he also entertained a more cynical possibility: “Maybe there are people who said, Putin’s not going to want to start talking until the early fall, because he’s going to see this as the prime period of the year to make an advance.”
He further suggested that there is a “fair consensus in the American administration that Putin is going to win this war.” This could explain the timing, providing Russia an opportunity to make progress. While expressing hope that this view is not widespread, Goble admitted, “it would explain what we see.”
A fundamental misunderstanding of Russia
Goble attributes this perceived misstep to a long-standing American challenge in comprehending Russia. “Americans have always had a hard time understanding Russia. It is sufficiently different that they don’t have a way to fit it neatly into what the United States looks like,” he asserted. Instead of acknowledging this profound difference, he argues, the default approach has been to apply American frameworks, leading to persistent “trouble.”
He critiques the notion that announcing a future consequence will deter an authoritarian like Putin. “If you announce to someone that you’re going to do something terrible to them in 50 days if they don’t do what you want, what’s going to happen is they’re going to do all the horrible things they can think of in days 1 through 49,” Goble stated starkly.
This is not merely a failure to understand Russia, he concluded, but a “failure to understand how the international system works, or even interpersonal relationships.”
Goble also touched on the perception that the current US President may “envy” Putin’s ability to act without constraint, a dangerous parallel given the differences in their respective political systems. He further cited American optimism, a professional bias within the foreign policy community for optimistic outcomes, and a lack of deep area specialization as contributing factors to this ongoing misunderstanding.
He lamented the historical failures, recalling his own advocacy more than a decade ago for Ukraine’s snap admission to NATO, and a fast track to EU membership, arguing that such decisive actions would have deterred Russia’s aggression. “We didn’t do that despite the fact that we had the commitment in the Budapest Memorandum we signed to defend the territorial integrity of Ukraine,” he stressed.
A Dangerous Phase
Goble concluded by emphasizing the “dangerous phase” the situation has entered. He reiterated that those who believe Putin will negotiate out of personal preference or good relationships are “fooling themselves.”
He also expressed concern over recent signals that American diplomats are now instructed to merely congratulate winners of foreign elections, irrespective of their democratic legitimacy.
With Russia’s full-scale invasion ongoing, and the Kremlin actively calculating what it can achieve in the remaining days of this imposed “grace period,” Goble’s message is clear: the 50-day deadline, far from compelling Russia to the negotiating table, has provided a critical window for intensified aggression and further suffering in Ukraine.
