• Ex-vice president more formidable, has more structures, resources –Supporters
• ‘No, Kwankwaso appeals more to ordinary folks’
From Desmond Mgboh, Kano
On July 13th, 2025, Nigeria’s former president and retired military General, Muhammadu BuharI died in London, after a prolonged but undisclosed illness. Two days after, his remains were flown to Nigeria and buried in Daura, his hometown, according to Islamic rites.
On his graveside were thousands of bereaved Nigerians, peasants and dignitaries, including President Ahmed Bola Tinubu, his deputy, Emirs, a cross breed of politicians, his family members and those closest to him during his lifetime.
As is expected, his burial was succeeded by tributes from across Nigeria, with speaker after speaker attesting to his profile as a politician, who left behind enduring footprints and milestones.
But days after his passage, the vacuum he left behind, especially in the politics of the North, is only becoming manifest. It is for this reason that in many parts of Kano State, just like in most parts of the North, the topic of talk is about the political future of the region in the wake of his demise. Although some may not agree, the near consensus is that Buhari was a phenomenon and would be difficult to replace.
But a more pressing reckoning is that Buhari did not groom a successor nor apprenticed an apostle to step in for him in the event of his departure. His politics, many told Sunday Sun, was like a whirlwind that encircles around itself and eases away once the glaciating force is gone.
Anthony Sani, an elder statesman and member of the Board of Trustees (BOT), Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) noted: “I am sure our leaders in the North have now learnt that honesty, integrity, discipline and simplicity as well as vision for betterment of the people matter more as exhibited by the late Muhammadu Buhari in his lifetime.
“The former President may be no more, but no one can fill the void he has left behind. But in a way again, Buhari is very much around, because he needs no tombstone to remind Nigerians of his legacies.”
Right now, the argument about Buhari’s successor is on the front burner in many parts of the North. The two names being canvassed as the most probable beneficiary of Buhari’s political dynasty are former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, as well as former governor of Kano State, former minister, former Senator and former Presidential candidate, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso.
Buhari’s shoes
Speaking to Sunday Sun about the former President, a political analyst in Kano, Usman Kabo noted: “Though it is too early to comment on a replacement, the truth is that the one single thread that held the texture of Northern politics together is gone. And I think it will take a very long time for us to get a politician and statesman that is accepted by the masses and tolerated by the elites.”
But the former president’s astronomical rise in Northern politics was not by chance nor was it an accident of time. Several combinatorial factors worked together to throw him up.
Kabo continued: “Buhari did not set out for power- at least not overtly; it was the North that searched out Buhari and dragged him into politics.” He noted that then the North had needed a strong figure that would match President Obasanjo and defeat him at the polls.
“They first cast their net on former President Ibrahim Babangida, but the Minna General was not forthcoming. They later turned to Buhari, a man with the same profile and rating as a former head of state and a retired military General.
“This sort of background- where the protagonist is reluctant and shows no altruistic interest is always a ripe field for the making of heroes and political icons. That is true of Buhari.
“Buhari’s military years also benefited his profile and politics. As the Head of State years ago, he fought corruption head-on, jailed politicians and appealed to the masses when he broke into warehouses, brought out hoarded food items and sold them at controlled prices.
“In his various bids for the Presidency, therefore, many Northerners, especially the masses, felt assured and trusted him as sincere, God- fearing and just. They just believed he would wipe out the corruption in the land, clean the stable and end their long hostage in the hands of sufferings and poverty.
“That perception of him being sincere, being God – fearing, being just, truthful is very important in the study of the rise of Buhari’s politics in the North. These are commendable virtues that are expected of a good Muslim.
“Our people are religious. These religious attributes elevated his political appeal. Thus, it was very easy to sell the Buhari candidacy to the any northerner, many of whom see a man of good breeding in him” he added.
“So, as far as I am concerned, there is simply no politician in the North today, who is this lucky to have time and circumstances in his favour.”
Of Atiku, Kwankwaso
In a slightly different perceptive, Jafar Sani Bello, a gubernatorial aspirant of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Kano State in the 2025 elections appreciated the place of Buhari in the politics of the North.
However, he remarked that at the time Buhari departed Aso Rock, he has lost a lot of grounds and had probably reached the denouement of his politics.
In his words: “To begin with, to say that the legendary “12 million votes” of former President Muhammadu Buhari’s political base was intact before his death is a fallacy that I personally do not believe.
“In truth, if the fallacy would have been true, President Bola Tinubu, whom he supported, would have garnered more than the just over eight million votes he got to win the 2023 elections.
“Thus, it will quite suffice to say that Atiku Abubakar garnered a chunk and Rabiu Kwankwaso got the crumbs from those 12million votes and Tinubu carted a significant portion away, which could be behind the five plus million votes he got from the North.
“I opine that if Buhari were alive today and were to contest today, he wouldn’t garner half the votes he once did. His cult-like following, especially in the North, was based on a deep trust in his capabilities and readiness.
“But after eight painful years and the near catastrophic choice of a successor, Buhari’s political capital has been decapitated from the once blind loyalty of millions turned into quiet regret- and in some quarters, outright rejection.”
He summed up that there is a great possibility of Atiku Abubakar inheriting a good chunk of Buhari’s votes in the years to come.
“That he Atiku has managed to remain the main issue over the years tells a lot to keen observers. Any reasonable politician will know that Atiku is a formidable politician from the North. Interestingly, Kwankwaso is a far cry away from Atiku,” he stated.
Many people told Sunday Sun that in terms of spread, reach and followership, Atiku, not Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, is the nearer to the position Buhari occupied in the North.
Many of those interviewed explained that Atiku has the resources, the experience and the structure to pick things up from where Buhari left them.
“Do not forget that he was a one-time Vice President of Nigeria and that had conferred on him certain privileged goodwill and esteem, which if well harnessed, place him a shoulder high among his contemporaries who may want to step into Buhari’s shoes as the leader of the North,” said a respondent.
Some also noted that the rise of Buhari, years ago, was largely responsible for the stalling of Atiku’s political fortunes in many parts of the North, adding that now that the terrain is plain and unconstructive, Atiku could easily ride to the top.
Those in support of the view that Atiku could – if luck is on his side- grow his politics and emerge as the leader of the politics of the North included the Secretary of the Kano State Chapter of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Alwalu Ibrahim.
Said he: “Atiku is an old horse in the politics of the region and he has the structures all over the North. These structures have been active, not dormant as is the case of many top- flight politicians who abandon their structures once the elections are over and they did not win.
“To me, if you compare all the existing Northern politicians today, one to one and you are honest- you can’t compare anybody or any one of them with Atiku.
“You can’t in all fairness, match Atiku with Kwankwaso. That will be very unfair. Kwankwaso is largely based in Kano, and his noise is all about Kano, but Atiku is in every part of the North.
“The results of the 2023 Presidential elections showed that both politicians are not a match.”
He said that in that election, the NNPP presidential candidate scored 953,179 votes (58.42 per cent) in Kano State and emerged top ahead of his rivals.
But Kwankwaso indeed performed poorly in many Northern states. He scored 72, 103 votes (8.45 per cent) in Bauchi State; 92, 969 votes in Kaduna State (6.83 per cent), 98, 234 votes in Jigawa State (10.67 per cent), 5038 votes in Kebbi State (0.90 per cent), 4517 votes (0.98 per cent) in the FCT; 4,044 votes (0.81 per cent) in Zamfara; 69, 386 votes (6.56 per cent) in Katsina State.
“How can this figure make you a leader of Northern politics? On the overall, I think that Atiku now has the chance to lead the North if he can prepare very well. If he can prepare very well, amend things and resolve differences here and there, he can,” he stated.
But Sunday Sun reports that figures are not all that matters. Opponents of the former Vice President and Waziri Adamawa insisted that Kwankwaso has everything to step into Buhari’s shoes in the North if he prepares well.
Said one of Kwankwaso’s supporters: “There is no way the North will follow after a man who only knows his political self –interest like Atiku.
“The Nigeria Presidency is the sole reason he is in politics, while the masses of Nigeria are only secondary. This simply means that any Northerner who has the aspiration to lead will certainly avoid joining the same train with him or be ready to wait until whenever he achieves his own dreams before he can start.”
Other arguments levelled against Atiku include the fact that he is not trusted by the ordinary man in the North.
“Atiku is not exactly trusted by a majority of Northern poor and his politics does not appeal or resonate with them in the same way that that of Buhari did.
“He is also seen as part of the capitalist class and is perceived as being too elitist to lead the political North.
“Also, unlike Buhari, Atiku’s politics is bereft of a clearly defined ideology or belief that would appeal to the Northern masses or the Northern poor.
“Atiku’s much talked-about structures are presently fragmented in many states. Many of his erstwhile supporters have defected to other political parties or to parties different from the ADC which he joined recently.”
But could Kwankwso step up his game and pick the crown? Is Kwankwaso the big fish in the waiting in all of this? The death of Buhari has opened a new vista of opportunity for a new political leader of the region to easily emerge.
The arguments in favour of Kwankwso are that he has the Buhari kind of appeal among his Kwankwassiyya supporters and followers, many of whom are blind to his faults and faithful to his commands.
Kwankwaso is also a strong defender of the North and is always the first to speak out, whenever and wherever the North is short-changed or the interest of the North is undermined.
At the Kano State Stakeholders’ Dialogue on the 2025 Constitutional Amendment held on Thursday, Kwankwaso unleashed a barrage of criticisms against the President Bola Tinubu administration over what he said was the neglect of the northern region of Nigeria and the concentration of the nation’s resources on developing the southern part where the president comes from.
In his words, most roads in the northern region remain in deplorable condition whereas the APC government has continued to allocate lump budgetary allocations for infrastructural development in the southern region.
Said he: “Yesterday, I was to come by air, but unfortunately, my airline decided to shift our takeoff from 3pm to 8pm. I had to come by road. From Abuja to Kaduna, to Kano was hell. Terrible. Very bad road. This is a road started many years ago, right from the beginning of the leadership of the APC.
“Now, we are told that there is a road from the South to the East. We support infrastructure anywhere in this country…and any other thing that is good for the masses but a situation where government is taking our resources and dumping it in one part of the country and other parts of the country are left just like that, I don’t believe that is the right thing to do by the government itself.”
Let me advise the Federal Government on the distribution of federal resources,” the former Kano governor said on Thursday
“From the information available to us, it’s like most of the national budget is now tilting in one direction in this country.”
Of course, several Northern groups have given Kwankwaso a thumbs-up for his remarks, adding that he was speaking nothing but the truth.
But some people have also asserted that Kwankwaso is not a team player and does not command the trust and respect of his peers – many of whom accuse him of subtle dictatorship.
Others have argued that his political spread is very limited in places outside Kano State. They cited his performance in the last presidential elections where he failed to match the pre-election’s expectations of him.
Between Tinubu and Kwankwaso
There have been speculations in recent times about Kwankwaso moving with his structure to the All Progressives Congress (APC). Although many associates of the former Kano State governor has dismissed such conjectures, many have held firmly to the claim, insisting that the meetings between Kwankwaso and Tinubu couldn’t be for non-political reasons. Such talks have dominated the political space since June 27 when the then APC chairman, Kwankwaso’s erstwhile deputy and successor in Kano suddenly resigned from his post.
Last week, Kwankwaso and President Tinubu met at the presidential villa. Although details of the meeting were not disclosed, many have stated that Tinubu was working to bring Kwankwaso back to the APC ahead of the 2027 elections to guarantee the president and his party a huge chunk of Kano votes. Some have even speculated that kwankwaso might be chosen as Tinubu’s new running mate.
