Statehood would be unlikely to have an immediate effect for people in Gaza or on Israel’s war with Hamas, but could help influence conversations about the future of the Middle East.
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Albanese said on Monday that a two-state solution was “humanity’s best hope to break the cycle of violence in the Middle East, and to bring an end to the conflict, suffering and starvation in Gaza”.
What is Palestine’s current status?
Gaza and the West Bank form modern-day Palestine, officially referred to by the Australian government as the Occupied Palestinian Territories. It has no unified government, standing army, or settled borders.
Professor Ben Saul, chair of international law at the University of Sydney, said Palestine met most of the requirements to be legally considered a state, including having a permanent population and the ability to enter into international relations, but it did not have an effective, independent government. He said because of its disputed status, other countries’ recognition carried more power in supporting Palestinians’ right to self-determination.
Almost 150 of the 193 UN member states recognise Palestine as a state, including many developing countries.
Militant group Hamas – designated a terrorist organisation by countries including Australia – has run the Gaza Strip for almost 20 years.
The Palestinian Authority, through which Australia officially engages with Palestine, has limited autonomy in the West Bank. The Oslo Accords in the 1990s gave the authority direct control of about 20 per cent of the territory.
There are numerous Israeli settlements across the West Bank, which have been expanding. Israel retains control of security in much of the West Bank. According to the CIA, approximately 468,300 Israeli settlers lived in the West Bank in 2022. The agency estimated that 236,600 Israelis lived in East Jerusalem, which Israel annexed in 1980, as of 2021.
Australia and most countries officially oppose the settlements on the basis that they are illegal under international law. Israel disputes the illegality of the settlements.
The Palestinian Authority, which was formed in the 1990s as a result of the Oslo Accords, is the territory’s representative at the UN, where it is a non-member observer state and has no vote in the 193-member General Assembly.
What will happen at the United Nations General Assembly session in September?
Australia has joined France, the UK, and Canada in saying it will separately recognise a Palestinian state and use the 80th session of the UN General Assembly, which opens September 9, as the stage for that move.
Professor Saul said the announcement at the UN was a political move rather than a legal one, but the choice of location was important.
“Recognition is just the political act. You could do it by press release … it’s just that doing it in a high-level, multilateral forum like [at the UN] is absolutely designed to have a much greater impact politically,” he said.
Saul said the declaration could come as a joint statement, but it was likely each leader would want to speak for their country.
“Some of these states have been issuing joint statements lately … so it could be done as a joint statement,” he said. “I think it would more likely be that each leader, assuming they attend, would want to state their own government’s position on it.”
Does that mean Palestine will become a member of the United Nations?
Probably not. Membership of the UN is separate from statehood and “is open to all peace-loving states that accept the obligations contained in the United Nations charter.” The charter contains rules, including a prohibition on the use of force against other nations.
To join, a prospective member must submit a letter to the secretary-general of the UN, currently António Guterres, stating it will abide by the charter.
Then it requires the votes of at least nine of the 15 members of the UN Security Council. Any of the five permanent members – the US, China, Russia, France and the UK – is allowed to veto membership.
Of the five permanent Security Council member countries, Russia and China recognise Palestine. If France and the UK do as they have indicated, the US will be the sole member not to recognise Palestine.
The US has historically vetoed Palestinian applications.
If no state vetoed the application, the secretary-general would then present it to the full general assembly of the UN, where it would require a two-thirds majority vote.
The United States vetoed a push in April for Palestinian statehood.
What conditions have been put on potential statehood?
Speaking to reporters in Canberra on Monday, Albanese said recognition was happening in part because of commitments the government had received from the Palestinian Authority.
“Our government has made it clear that there can be no role for the terrorists of Hamas in any future Palestinian state,” Albanese said. “This is one of the commitments Australia has sought and received from President [Mahmoud] Abbas and the Palestinian Authority.”
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Albanese said the PA had committed to demilitarise, hold general elections, and reaffirmed its recognition of Israel’s right to exist – commitments he said were bolstered by the Arab League’s previous “unprecedented demand” that Hamas disband and surrender its weapons to the authority.
“This is an opportunity to deliver self-determination for the people of Palestine in a way that isolates Hamas, disarms it and drives it out of the region once and for all,” Albanese said.
Albanese and Foreign Minister Penny Wong did not say what Australia would do if the authority does not fulfil its promises.
The UK and Canada’s recognition in September is also conditional.
The UK will recognise a Palestinian state unless Israel agrees to a ceasefire in Gaza, stops building settlements in the West Bank and commits to a two-state solution. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long rejected such terms and almost certainly won’t agree by the deadline.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said his country’s decision to recognise Palestine was predicated on the PA committing to “much needed reform”, the demilitarisation of the Palestinian state, and the release of the Israeli hostages still held by Hamas.
Do Palestinians support a two-state solution?
Support for a two-state solution sat at about 30 per cent for both Palestinians and Israelis in 2022, down from about 50 per cent in 2016, according to the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research. Support has dropped even further in Israel since the October 7 attacks.
The Palestinian Liberation Organisation, a nationalist coalition then led by Yasser Arafat, recognised Israel’s right to exist in peace at the start of the US-backed peace process in 1993 that set up the Palestinian Authority. It was hoped that it would be a step towards statehood.
Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and Palestine Liberation Organisation chairman Yasser Arafat mark the signing of the first Oslo peace accord with a handshake at the White House in September 1993.Credit: AP
Hamas’ establishing charter called for the destruction of Israel, but in 2007, Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal said the group accepted the fact of an Israeli state but would not recognise it, according to the Wilson Centre.
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In 2017, the group presented a new charter accepting a Palestine with borders as they were immediately before the 1967 Arab-Israeli war, signalling tacit acceptance of two states.
The Wilson Centre also records another Hamas leader, the late Ismail Haniyeh, saying after the October 7, 2023 massacres by the group that: “All the normalisation and recognition processes, all the agreements that have been signed [with Israel] can never put an end to this battle.”
