SINGAPORE – In one of the most climate-threatened corners of the planet lies a small island nation, its shores being eaten away by rising sea levels.
Home to some 10,000 people, Tuvalu – located between Hawaii and Australia – is dealing with sea-level rise by building seawalls and reclaiming land.
But it is also moving its people elsewhere.
More than 80 per cent of its population has applied to move to Australia
under a landmark climate visa designed to help people escape rising sea levels, reported France 24 in July.
As a small island nation, Singapore is also not spared from sea-level rise.
But the concept of managed retreat, where people are moved away from the coast so the sea is allowed to swallow up land, is unimaginable for Singapore, home to over six million people.
Critical infrastructure also dots the country’s coastline – from an expanding airport to power plants, military bases and reservoirs.
These are things that Singapore, a city that has to accommodate the needs of an entire country, cannot afford to relinquish to the sea.
Programmes like climate visas should be seen as a last resort, said Mr Bryce Rudyk, legal adviser to the chair of the Alliance of Small Island States, which Singapore and Tuvalu are part of.
“I think all small islands would prefer not to move elsewhere. While Singapore has some adaptation capacity, if seas rise by 2m, 4m, it will become so incredibly expensive that it can drag down the rest of the economy.”
In places like Emao Island in the Pacific nation Vanuatu, residents are forced to abandon their homes and move to higher ground at financial, cultural and emotional costs.
“Unlike cyclones or floods that bring immediate and visible destruction, sea-level rise creeps forward quietly, year after year,” said Dr Christopher Bartlett, special climate adviser at Vanuatu’s Ministry of Climate Change.
By 2100, Singapore’s sea level is projected to rise by up to 1.15m.
When combined with extreme events such as high tides and storm surges,
sea levels could potentially rise up to 5m.
But about 30 per cent of Singapore is less than 5m above mean sea level.
Doing nothing would mean coastal flooding events could severely impact homes and businesses, and disrupt daily lives.
Singaporeans got a taste of this in January. Parts of Jalan Seaview in Mountbatten were inundated for nearly three hours, leaving some vehicles stranded, and the premises of a nearby house flooded.
The flooding event was due to a confluence of factors – a high tide, heavy rain and a storm surge, when storms offshore cause tides to go up higher than usual.
A car passing through a flooded low-lying section of Mountbatten Road connecting Jalan Seaview on Jan 10.
PHOTO: ST FILE
Assistant Professor Elisa Ang from the Singapore Institute of Technology’s (SIT) engineering cluster, said storm surges have brought abnormal sea levels as high as 0.75m to the country in 1999.
When mean sea levels are higher due to melting ice sheets, such “triple whammy” flooding events could become more common.
Associate Professor Tay Zhi Yung from the same SIT cluster said: “Storm surges can temporarily raise sea levels significantly, pushing seawater inland. When this is combined with high tides or heavy rainfall causing flash floods, (the) drainage systems might overflow causing these low-lying zones to face a compounded threat of inundation.”
Climate change first shot to the top of the national agenda in 2019, when then Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said in his National Day Rally speech – considered one of the most important political speeches of the year – that Singapore’s coastal defences were as existential for the country as its armed forces.
Climate change defences should be treated like the Singapore Armed Forces – with utmost seriousness, said Mr Lee then.
“These are life and death matters. Everything else must bend at the knee to safeguard the existence of our island nation,” he said.
Since then, Singapore has moved to act on climate change on multiple fronts. Coastal protection and tackling flooding have been a large pillar of the country’s efforts.
These include widening drains, building underground tanks to hold stormwater, and studying the sea level risks faced by each corner of the coastline.
“Coastal protection works require careful planning and are a significant undertaking,” said Ms Hazel Khoo, director of the coastal protection department at national water agency PUB.
“We need to take into consideration several factors, such as the effectiveness of measures, existing and potential land uses, environmental impact and cost. Trade-offs are therefore inevitable,” she said.
Reclaiming land offshore to protect the East Coast area, for example, can impact the marine environment.
In August, the small island nation of Nauru in the Pacific Ocean sold its first passports as part of a programme to fund climate action, including retreating from rising sea levels.
Each applicant has to contribute US$105,000 (S$135,500) to the fund to be eligible for Nauru citizenship.
Coastal protection efforts can be costly.
Singapore has estimated that coastal protection efforts could cost $100 billion over the next 100 years, due to significant construction works.
To protect the East Coast, it is looking to reclaim around 800ha of land offshore – about twice the size of Marina Bay – with a new reservoir in between.
PUB has also since 2023 been studying the feasibility of installing large barriers to protect the south-western coastline – including Jurong Island, Pasir Panjang Terminal and Tuas shipyards – from extreme events like storm surges.
But as flood risk expert Matthijs Bos puts it: “Luckily enough, Singapore is a very wealthy country, and that gives it the capacity to adapt.”
The Coastal and Flood Protection Fund, established in 2020, is one way Singapore will fund long-term investments in coastal protection, said Ms Khoo.
To date, the authorities have dipped into the $10 billion pot for drainage projects including the Syed Alwi Pumping Station, Alkaff Lake and upgrading works at a section of Bukit Timah Canal.
Ms Khoo added: “This is in addition to long-term borrowing via Singa bonds, and the use of past reserves to fund land reclamation.” Singa bonds are government securities used to finance long-term infrastructure.
Ms Khoo said that the high costs of coastal protection works mean that Singapore would need to stage its coastal protection planning and construction in phases, to ensure a sustainable pace.
Singapore has divided its coastline into eight sections to determine the most suitable ways to protect each stretch.
There are four ongoing site-specific studies, she said, with plans to commence two new studies at Singapore’s south-west coast and Sentosa by 2026.
The first study commenced in the city-east coast stretch of Singapore’s coastline in 2021, and Long Island is expected to protect much of the stretch.
Ms Khoo said PUB will be sharing the proposed coastal protection scheme for the two ends of the stretch – the Greater Southern Waterfront and Changi – at the first coastal protection exhibition to be held at VivoCity from Aug 28 to 31.
Mr James Lam, Surbana Jurong’s executive director for coastal engineering, said the studies for different sites will also help the country decide on the best and most cost-effective solutions for each stretch, given their differing characteristics and tolerance to floods.
The global urban and infrastructure consulting firm has been appointed to study two of the eight sections – Jurong Island and the north-west coast, which runs from Tuas Checkpoint to Lim Chu Kang jetty. Its Jurong Island study is done together with consulting firm Jacobs.
“The north-west is more natural and less built up. The measures we are considering will likely blend with the ecosystems. For Jurong Island, home to many petrochemical companies, the measures will consider their operations and the assets to protect,” he said.
The construction of some coastal defences is expected to start from the 2030s.
While the authorities will armour up most of the country’s shoreline, there are seaside businesses and private properties that will need to become the second line of defence.
To pave the way for that, a law on coastal protection will be tabled by the first half of 2026.
“This legislation will define the roles and responsibilities of the relevant stakeholders, safeguard land needed for coastal protection measures, and ensure that coastal protection requirements are met and sustained over time,” said Ms Khoo.
Mr Lim Peng Hong, managing director of engineering firm PH Consulting, said: “It is not useful to remind the public continuously about being flood-resilient without providing possible solutions.”
Mr Lim is helping to put together a PUB-backed guidebook of solutions that is slated to be published by mid-2026.
Mr Lim, who is also president of the Professional Engineers Board, added that property owners should also budget for the cost of being flood-resilient, like how they do for repair and maintenance.
“The rising seawater level will not be a sudden event and the investment made by the property owners, whether individuals or small and medium enterprises, will span over many years, even decades,” he said.
