Shafaq News
Since October 7, 2023, the Middle East has entered a new
phase of upheaval. States across the region appear to be falling like dominoes
under shifting geopolitical balances. The emerging picture suggests the
possible end of an era defined by the “Axis of Resistance,” which Iran has
sponsored for more than two decades.
In Beirut, anxiety is mounting that the country could be
dragged into uncharted territory, reminiscent of Lebanon’s darkest
chapters—whether the 1975–1990 civil war or the Israeli invasion of the 1980s.
These fears come amid regional storms: the war in Gaza, the attempted
re-engineering of Syria under transitional President Ahmed al-Sharaa, rising
tensions in Iraq, and a looming confrontation between Israel and Iran.
Lebanon in the Regional Equation
Lebanon is not the only state caught in this domino effect.
Yet the Lebanese scene itself could become a catalyst for a broader crisis if
political divisions deepen. Any internal collapse would reverberate across the
Middle East.
Domestically, tensions escalated after Prime Minister Nawaf
Salam’s government moved earlier this month to restrict weapons to the state
authority. The decision was widely viewed as a response to what is known in
Beirut as the “US paper,” presented by Envoy Tom Barrack. The
proposal—reflecting Israeli conditions—ties Hezbollah’s disarmament to promises
of economic aid and security guarantees, though Lebanese officials privately
describe them as vague and non-binding.
The move has divided Beirut’s political class. Christian
leaders from the Kataeb Party and Lebanese Forces praised it as “a necessary
step to restore sovereignty.” Druze figures remain split: Walid Jumblatt warned
against provoking Hezbollah into confrontation, while Talal Arslan cautiously
supported the principle of state monopoly on arms.
Syria’s unsettled situation compounds the crisis. More than
1.5 million Syrian refugees remain inside Lebanon, a burden that successive
governments have failed to resolve. Damascus under al-Sharaa has prioritized
the return of Syrian prisoners from Lebanese jails but has avoided substantive
discussion of refugee repatriation, despite repeated Lebanese overtures.
Syrian officials—including new Foreign Minister Asaad
al-Shibani—have notably avoided visits to Beirut, signaling a frosty approach.
Border Tensions
On the ground, smuggling networks and sporadic armed
incursions persist along the Syrian-Lebanese frontier, some reportedly linked
to Syrian security elements. Recently, tribal groups in Syria threatened to
cross into Lebanon to secure the release of more than 2,000 detainees. This has
forced the Lebanese army—already deployed on the southern and northern
fronts—to reinforce its border positions.
Lebanese officials fear that tribal involvement could ignite
wider clashes, dragging in local clans, the army, and Hezbollah units in border
communities. Such escalation would undermine Saudi-brokered understandings
reached earlier this year, when Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman
mediated to halt cross-border fighting.
Some Lebanese politicians warn that Damascus could exploit
the detainee issue as leverage. While claims that Syria is “warming ties with
Israel” remain speculative, analysts note that al-Sharaa’s government appears
less committed to Hezbollah than Bashar al-Assad was. Christian opposition
figures have even suggested that Washington and Tel Aviv may quietly encourage
Damascus to increase pressure on Hezbollah through indirect means.
The Hezbollah Question
Against this backdrop, Hezbollah’s weapons remain the most
contentious issue. For many Lebanese, the government’s disarmament initiative
evokes memories of the 1970s and 1980s, when militias rivaled the state.
Hezbollah reacted sharply. Sheikh Ali Daamoush, head of the
party’s Executive Council, denounced the decision as “a grave mistake, lacking
national legitimacy and even basic rationality.” He warned it could push
Lebanon “to the edge of explosion,” stressing that Hezbollah’s arms will remain
as long as Israel occupies Lebanese land and threatens its people.
Daamoush hinted at escalation if the government does not
reverse course, saying the party has so far avoided mass protests or street
actions but could shift strategy after the cabinet’s September 2 session.
The confrontation comes despite Hezbollah’s heavy losses during
the “support war” it fought alongside Hamas between October 2023 and November
2024. While that conflict ended in a ceasefire, Israeli violations of UN
Security Council Resolution 1701 continue. Just today, an Israeli drone strike
killed a civilian in Aita al-Shaab.
According to Beirut’s Information International Center,
Israel committed 85 violations in the week following the government’s
disarmament decision, leaving 11 dead, 20 injured, and widespread destruction.
Iran, Iraq, and the Wider Axis
These developments explain the swift arrival of Ali
Larijani, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, in Beirut. His
trip followed a stop in Baghdad, where he oversaw the signing of a new security
agreement as Iraqi politicians debated the future of the Popular Mobilization
Forces (PMF).
The PMF debate mirrors Lebanon’s crisis: both revolve around
whether Iran-backed armed groups can be absorbed into state structures. Some
Sunni and Kurdish parties in Baghdad argue the PMF’s autonomy undermines
sovereignty, while Shiite factions warn that disbanding the force would leave
Iraq vulnerable to ISIS and US influence. American officials, meanwhile,
continue pressing Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani to enforce tighter
controls.
Larijani’s presence underscored Tehran’s red line: Iran will
not allow Hezbollah—or the PMF—to be isolated, even if Lebanon’s government and
Syria’s transitional leadership signal willingness to accommodate Western or
Israeli demands. For Tehran, these battles are inseparable from the regional
balance of power.
Israel, emboldened by the Gaza ceasefire, appears determined
to reset the “rules of engagement.” Analysts in Tel Aviv openly discuss
widening operations against Hezbollah and Iranian assets in Syria. This raises
the specter of a broader confrontation, reminiscent of the 12-day war fought
directly between Iran and Israel in 2024.
Domino Risks Ahead
The Lebanese government has tasked its army with drafting a
plan to implement weapons restrictions. Yet senior officers, according to
Shafaq News sources, have privately told politicians and Hezbollah leaders they
will not execute any plan that risks plunging the country into civil conflict.
This delicate balancing act underscores Lebanon’s fragility.
Historical memory looms large: in 1975, a single spark—the Ain al-Rummaneh bus
shooting—ignited 15 years of war. Today, many fear Lebanon could once again become
the flashpoint for regional escalation—a single domino whose fall would send
shockwaves from Beirut to Baghdad, Damascus, Tel Aviv, and Tehran.
Written and edited by Shafaq News staff.
