The by-election is happening in the most tragic of circumstances but it will tell us a lot
A Senedd by-election will take place in Caerphilly in October(Image: WalesOnline/ Rob Browne)
The word by-election doesn’t usually conjure excitement in most circles. But by October 24, when the votes are counted to determine who the next Senedd member for Caerphilly is, the result will be more than snapshot of political climate in Wales. There are numerous ways it could be interesting, but it could have an absolutely massive impact on everyone.
The by-election is happening in the most tragic of circumstances, the death of a 47-year-old dad. But such is the world of politics, Hefin David’s post cannot be left vacant and the rules dictate an election day needs to be declared. So two days after his funeral, a short but concise statement from the Senedd’s Llywydd said that people in Caerphilly will be asked to go to their polling booths on October 23.
A lot of disclaimers are given about by-elections by analysists, warning how they’re not really an accurate reading of the national picture and we shouldn’t take a single by-election result and make big projections about what it will mean when there is a general election.
However, there are two key things this by-election will teach us. Firstly, how Reform is actually doing and secondly, the very real danger of a Welsh Government budget failing to pass next year.
Not only would that prospect have a massive impact on anyone who uses any council service, or health care, education, national park or service in Wales. But it would also set the battleground for a deeply bitter Welsh election in May next year.
First up – the threat of Reform.
Caerphilly is a Labour seat. It’s only ever been represented by Labour in both the Senedd and Westminster. For our free daily briefing on the biggest issues facing the nation, sign up to the Wales Matters newsletter.
Yet in 2016, Ukip (remember them?) took a huge chunk of Labour votes. Reform is now posing a threat to the political status quo in Wales and this will be the first big test of how those polls will translate to reality when people come to vote.
As an indication of intent of the parties, we can already see Plaid and Reform are out of the blocks. Plaid released a statement announcing their candidate within hours of the by-election date being confirmed. Reform did a mail drop of literature to every home in the constituency, showing the resources (and money) at their disposal, and how they think they can do well.
They want to, a source said, “devour” the Tory vote and eat into Labour’s, going further than Ukip did in 2016, and they could well do so.
That would not only give Labour a kicking, but would also give Reform a second Senedd member to join Laura Anne-Jones on the benches of the siambr, and its first genuinely elected one. Another feather in the cap of Nigel Farage.
Labour is, it’s safe to say, reeling from the impact of their friend and colleague’s death. This isn’t a campaign they want, but they have to do it, and a lot rides on it, but depending on who you speak to it shows just how open this whole election is.
Some say they have to win, not only because this is a heartland seat but to preserve the legacy of their colleague.
Others throw their arms in the air saying “who knows?” pointing you to the result in the Scottish by-election in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse when all signs pointed to a Reform victory, only for them to come third with Labour narrowly winning.
Others are more pessimistic and think a loss is guaranteed. That would create nothing short of a huge headache because of what that means in parliamentary terms, let alone what it shows voters and their membership.
If Labour loses Caerphilly, it would mean the party faces an even bigger challenge to pass its budget in the Senedd. The budget is a huge, detailed, massively important thing that determines where money will be spent in all devolved areas. A Reform win in Caerphilly would put the flagship and most important thing the Welsh government does in jeopardy.
While it is the government’s responsibility to draw up, it only passes if a majority of politicians vote for it in the Welsh parliament.
Labour currently has 29 of the 60 seats in the Senedd. To get the budget through last year, they needed the support of Lib Dem Jane Dodds (so 29 plus one). That was secured via concessions to her, which you can recap here.
If Labour loses Caerphilly, even offering concessions to her would not be enough. For the budget to pass Plaid or the Tories would need to back it (unlikely) or abstain.
Any party could decide strike a deal with Labour, as has happened many times before.
Plaid or the Tories could pick something and enter negotiations with the ruling party. The Tories could go and say “we’ll back you if you sell Cardiff Airport/ditch 20mph/stop your plans to change farming subsidies.” Plaid could do the same on any of its policies such as rail spending, further powers on policing, justice, broadcasting and welfare (although Welsh Labour would need UK Labour to agree those).
Getting any of those concessions from Labour is, however, highly unlikely but it would mean the opposition parties could print on election leaflets in big letters “we got that for you”.
But will they want to bail out Labour for the sake of a policy win just months away from an election? The opposition parties will find themselves weighing up the benefit of a policy win against being able to print how much of a lame duck Eluned Morgan’s administration is. A government that can’t pass a budget – well what’s the point in that?
Plus, a budget has to pass. If not, there are huge financial penalties. While the ifs and buts continue and impact just how much of a financial headache it creates, the figure the Senedd’s research team say will be lost if no budget is agreed is £3.5bn out of the £26bn budget.
Labour has a response to that ready. Plaid failing to back the 2025 budget has been one of Eluned Morgan’s favourite attack lines, saying their lack of votes but billions of pounds at risk, billions that fund health, education and people’s wellbeing up and down Wales.
Critics of Plaid will say that if you are going to go out in May and say you will run the next government and all that comes with that, then you have to be serious about governing. Leaving a country without a budget and losing it a few billion pounds it can ill afford is not serious politics.
Plaid also have their own battle. While the polls for the new boundaries and electoral system put them first or second, this is an election contested on the existing boundary, and with the first past the post system.
They have a good start. Their candidate Lindsay Whittle is a local campaigner with local knowledge, and a former Assembly Member (as was). The party has run the council before too, so there is strong Plaid presence lurking. Labour will likely announce its candidate in the coming days. Reform say it could be a couple of weeks while the Tories are yet to announce either.
If you live in Caerphilly, be warned; your doorstep is likely to be very busy with politicians of all colours trying to persuade you to back them.
