We hear it every other week. But this time Keir Starmer’s leadership really is in trouble after the fallout from Lord Peter Mandelson’s friendship with convicted paedophile Jeffrey Epstein.
The calls for change at the helm of the Labour Party – and the government – have never been louder. This time, it is a massive problem for the Prime Minister: it is coming from within his own party.
Startling revelations about Lord Mandelson’s close relationship with disgraced financier Epstein revealed supportive messages after his conviction of soliciting prostitution from a minor in 2008.
No 10 insists it only learned of the new information when it leaked last week, but Sir Keir asked Lord Mandelson about his links to Epstein before he appointed him as British ambassador to the US in February.
The Prime Minister asked about the extent of the friendship, and about reports the Labour peer stayed in Epstein’s Manhattan apartment while he was in prison, but was content with the assurances Lord Mandelson gave, according to the BBC.
Starmer has had a rocky year in government. Many of his problems have been self-inflicted – cuts to winter fuel payment, a freebies row, welfare cuts and maintaining the two-child benefit cap.
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The tumultuous term in office was rocked further after Angela Rayner resigned as his deputy for underpaying on stamp duty for a property purchase.
But nothing seems to have rocked the boat quite like Lord Mandelson.
Starmer was repeatedly warned about Lord Mandelson’s links with Epstein but still chose to appoint him in the diplomacy role.
It does now seem like the clock is ticking on Starmer’s leadership.
But does Labour have anyone who could step in and replace him – and when is the right time?
In May, voters in Scotland go to the polls for the Holyrood election, as well as in Wales and locally in the north of England.
Changing leadership in London so close to an election could be disastrous for Scottish Labour, especially since Anas Sarwar’s leadership is so closely aligned with Starmer.
The consensus is that poor election results next year could finish Starmer’s leadership.
But worse than that, there is serious concern within the party that the Prime Minister may not be able to hang on until May.
Labour’s rule book requires a leadership challenger to get at least 20% of support from Labour MPs – currently 80 MPs – to trigger a contest.
The challenge Labour faces though, is that no obvious successor stands out. Rayner had been considered the obvious replacement before she was forced to quit government.
Characters like Wes Streeting, the UK health secretary, emerge as possible candidates, but he may not have the profile that the party needs to see off threat from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, while Bridget Phillipson, the education secretary, the favourite for deputy, is in a similar boat.
When replacing Keir Starmer as leader is discussed, only one name sticks – and he’s not even an MP: it’s Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester.
Burnham is not an MP and therefore cannot currently seek leadership but there are growing rumours that he could be about to make a comeback to Westminster.
Labour leadership would likely block any such move, but senior party figures suggested an existing MP in Manchester could be about to step down due to ill health, with Burnham being tipped to step in when a by-election is called.
The reality is though, that Starmer has clung on throughout his problematic leadership and he is not going to give up the top job without a fight, following the emphatic general election result in 2024.
During a press conference, Farage was asked who he would rather go up against in an election.
“Keir or Andy B?” he said. “It’s a very hypothetical question… Keir Starmer will not be leader of the Labour Party in the next election – in fact he might not last to night year. Look, if it’s Andy Burnham, you might say he’s very personable but he also could drag Labour way to the left and that’s not the direction… this country is going.”
“So I’m not bothered to be honest,” he added.
Given how bad things are for Labour – and the persistent threat of Reform – the party has a choice: stick with Starmer despite the turmoil or cause upheaval with a coup.
