In IDF briefings, officials speak of 2,000 terrorists waiting in the strip’s capital. The real number is 10,000. Here’s the twist: until now, when the army operated step by step, terrorists fled from combat zones into the humanitarian areas to preserve their strength — and lives. Indeed, there are soldiers who have been operating in the strip for months without seeing a single terrorist with their own eyes.
Now, Hamas operatives are streaming into Gaza City for what they perceive as the ultimate battle.
Hamas’ view is that Israel has gone mad, that Netanyahu has gone mad. Where are the Jews who used to surrender when hostages were on the other side? Where are the Jews who avoided operating in an urban zone with hundreds of thousands of civilians? Amongst Hamas’ external leadership, spirits are high after the failed assassination attempt in Doha. But in Hamas ranks inside Gaza, there’s silence in order to preserve operational security, alongside widespread hysteria ahead of the IDF’s conquest of Gaza City.
And afterwards? Netanyahu believes the fall of the strip’s capital would be like the fall of Jerusalem to the Romans in 70 CE. Masada and a few other outposts would remain, but the war would be decided. The shrinking diplomatic timetable, however, together with low stockpiles of ammunition and legitimacy, may not allow further operations in the central camps. But the cabinet believes that the IDF won’t need to move into the camps in central Gaza. After all, when 95 percent of the strip is cleansed of Hamas and its terror infrastructure, the door will open for an alternative authority to rule Gaza. On the table is an American plan with the involvement of Arab states.
So, what could disrupt Israel’s plans? If the IDF gets bogged down in Gaza City, if the American plan collapses, and if the UAE and Egypt, already on edge, refuse to join in. Where won’t the disruption come from? The United States. Those hoping for Donald Trump to lose patience and break with Israel, or those worried about it, should think again. Here’s proof of how close the ties really are: the White House recently asked Netanyahu confidant Ron Dermer to advise it on an international matter entirely unrelated to Israel or the Middle East.
Of course, if Kamala Harris were in Trump’s place, Israel’s situation would be desperate. Only Washington’s efforts (along with Hungary and the Czech Republic) are standing between Israel and international sanctions. Had Harris been elected, there would have been no strike on Iran’s nuclear site in Fordow, no entry into Gaza City, and the arms embargo would have already begun. Trump, and the wise ties built with him, are all that separate “a people that rises like a lion” from “a people that dwells alone.”
Partition Plan 1
After naming his new party “Straight,” if Gadi Eisenkot joins forces with Naftali Bennett, could the united list be called “Straight and Right”?
On a more serious note: When should they unite? Should they unite at all? Polls show that no merger increases the bloc’s strength — and some even reduce it. Should they draft a joint platform, as Avigdor Liberman suggests, or each run separately and form a coalition later, as coalitions are formed? And in general — how much is each party worth? Who should drop out? And who should be the anti-Netanyahu “change bloc’s” candidate for prime minister?
Gadi Eisenkot. Photo: Yossi Zeliger Yossi Zeliger
This week, Eisenkot said something intriguing: that the ties between the parties in the bloc are deeper and broader than they appear. He may have been referring to a large, in-depth poll currently underway, with questions drafted jointly by the different lists. It’s a wide-ranging project, designed to test all the questions above. Its main goal is to check if the bloc’s grassroots supporters — who are so vocal on social media and see unity as the order of the day — are right, or if it’s a mistake that would play into Netanyahu’s hands. And even if it is a mistake, since some sort of merger will happen anyway, the real question is not if, but when.
The Democrats, for example, suggested testing a “triangle” run of Yair Golan-Gadi Eisenkot-Yair Lapid. Their lesson from Zohran Mamdani’s success in New York, and from radical right-wing parties in Europe, is that attempts to build a “fake center” and shy away from concrete positions don’t work with the public. Lapid, for his part, would prefer uniting with the United Torah Judaism party.
Such a poll is more than just shared expense (especially since an external donation funded it). It reflects a level of coordination not born of great love, because there isn’t any, but of enormous pressure from voters. No vote in the bloc will be wasted, but the grassroot supporters won’t accept too much independence, inevitably leading to tighter coordination. Indeed, Bennett’s main fear is that coordination will be too tight. He won’t attend the planned Saturday night meeting at Yair Lapid’s home, citing a memorial for his late father, but he’ll also be glad to avoid a photo with Yair Golan, the “red flag” for the right-wing voters Bennett’s 2026 party is chasing.
Eisenkot, meanwhile, hasn’t decided yet. He devotes 20 percent of his time to organizing the bloc. When will the decision be made? Only after the Jewish New Year.
Partition Plan 2
What happened to Bezalel Smotrich? Many have been asking this for a long time, seeing the polls that place him on the edge of the electoral threshold. Some blame his disconnect from voters on the ultra-Orthodox draft law, while others link it to his unpopular tenure as finance minister. The truth? Nothing happened. The world goes on as usual.
Ahead of the last election, as the talks for a technical merger with Itamar Ben Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit party dragged on, the polls reflected the same picture: Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party hovering near the threshold, and Otzma Yehudit easily passing.
Bezalel Smotrich. Photo: Oren Ben Hakoon Oren Ben Hakoon
In fact, since its founding in 1999 as “Tkuma,” across 11 consecutive elections, the National-Haredi party never dared run alone. It always ran under Benny Begin, under Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu, with the national-religious Mafdal, with Otzma Yehudit, with Bennett’s Jewish Home, and most recently with Ben Gvir. Indeed, Israel’s National-Haredi population was never large enough to clear the current threshold. Ironically, the party is now stronger than ever. After a quarter century, natural growth has had its effect, and Smotrich may now pass the threshold alone.
Whether he’ll take that risk is another question. The proposal he brought this week to cancel party primaries is more significant than it seems on face value. Smotrich also demanded to secure his position as party head and add another reserved slot of his choice. In some parties, they guarantee representation for Ethiopians or Druze; in Religious Zionism, they guarantee representation for what former MK Uri Orbach called “the normal religious”: neither National-Religious, nor those on the “soft” end of the religious spectrum.
The thinking is that with an attractive candidate, say Brigadier General Ofer Winter, or a well-known reservist, the party could add just enough to its base to pass the threshold. Winter intends to run, and is even preparing to form his own party, but may compromise for a top slot and ministerial post.
Netanyahu, of course, has different plans entirely: to pit Smotrich and Ben Gvir against one another. He’s very worried about wasted votes falling below the threshold, a risk to his bloc in the upcoming election, but not to his rivals. On paper it seems impossible, since the enmity between the finance minister and national security minister should rule out cooperation. But trust Netanyahu not to let petty details block his way. The idea: another purely technical bloc, only to split on election night. Remember, Ben Gvir has never passed the threshold alone either. The bonus for Ben Gvir: he’d lead the list. Smotrich’s payoff: more seats than he’d get in any other scenario.
As before, it will end with a summit by Bibi’s pool in Caesarea.
Even Better
A few months ago came the dreaded message every Israeli knows: your passport is about to expire. And right on its heels: your ID card needs replacing too. The horror stories about chaos at the Population and Immigration Authority offices were fresh in memory, including the impression that to get an appointment you’d have to book two years in advance in Taybeh, and only on a full-moon night.
So, I cleared an afternoon while the kids were at summer camp, and booked an appointment for late August in Mevasseret Zion. It was set for 15:06, a sad Israeli joke about punctuality in a place where a one-hour delay isn’t even upsetting. To my astonishment, at exactly 15:06 I was already sitting in front of a polite, efficient clerk. Four minutes later I was out, with a promise that within six weeks the passport and ID would arrive by mail.
Israeli Passports. Photo: Ami Shooman Ami Shooman
Both the Population and Immigration Authority and the postal service, what could possibly go wrong? Never mind that I was supposed to fly six weeks later. In the end: just a week and a half later, the new passport and ID were delivered straight to my door. I don’t know who deserves credit for the reform in the Population Authority, but kudos to them.
Less credit goes to us, the press. What makes us report only bad news, and when things improve, forget it all? And no, this isn’t about portraying Netanyahu’s government negatively. After COVID, massive queues developed at Ben Gurion Airport, and were widely reported. Six months later, the Airports Authority and Transport Ministry recruited staff and solved it — and poof, zero coverage.
They say, “no news is good news,” but in truth, “good news is no news.” That’s why two huge achievements of the past year virtually disappeared from the radar: the brilliant victory over Hezbollah in the winter, and the stunning success against Iran in the summer. That’s the nature of journalism, and human nature too, to get used to the good and complain about the bad. But sometimes it goes too far.
I’ve long noticed that the most violent online reactions don’t come after expressing support for Netanyahu’s positions, but after posting something optimistic. No wonder the fiercest ridicule was reserved for Sasson Shaulov’s viral song “Even Better.” How dare he celebrate and rejoice when there is sorrow all around? Some radio hosts even seemed to prefer playing on loop the Otzma Yehudit jingle. And still, according to predictions, Shaulov’s song will take first place in the year-end charts. For the Israeli public, despite everything — not all is bad, and some things are getting even better.
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