One rider on Lions-phobia is similar projections were made about the barnstorming Melbourne of 2021, and we know what didn’t happen for them.
In addition to Draper and Allen, Brisbane will add a midfielder rated as top five in the national draft, Daniel Annable, from their Queensland academy. The prospective loss of Brandon Starcevich (West Coast) and Callum Ah Chee (Adelaide) hits, but would be necessary to find the space for those free agents and draft picks/points for Annable.
When Gold Coast and then the Giants first arrived in the AFL, constructed by head office with a vast array of generous recruiting concessions, doomsayers warned that dynasties were inevitable. The Russians were coming!
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As we know, the Suns couldn’t keep their talent and the Giants, despite their excellence, couldn’t pay everyone.
But this time, the Russians have landed. This Lions side has the capability to win a third and even fourth flag if the planets align in their favour.
The upcoming trade period, thus, can be viewed as the first opportunity for some of those 17 rivals to attempt to close the gap that the Lions have opened up.
Hawthorn are the obvious watch because they’ve gone hard after Merrett and if they landed the Essendon skipper, would take a step towards the crown.
Essendon’s internal politics – evident in the ascension to the presidency of Andrew Welsh – and the fact of Merrett’s ongoing contract make that pursuit highly problematic. Welsh has flat out said Merrett is out of bounds.
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Will Hawthorn keep up their Zach attack, or flick the switch to plan B, which could still be Petracca? Or someone else.
Petracca has been raised as a possibility for one of Gold Coast or Adelaide, both of which made great leaps forward this year.
The tendency within the competition has been to view each season as a completely fresh beginning, with a third of the teams or more reckoning themselves in the running for the flag.
Brisbane’s position is completely unlike Geelong post-2022 or that of Collingwood after their 2023 flag. They shape as more formidable than they were following the 2024 premiership when Joe Daniher had retired.
Waving goodbye: Joe Daniher after last year’s flag.Credit: AFL Photos
This version of the Lions has a vibe that’s more like a government with a huge majority. To put them in opposition will require a major swing. Or for the Lions to fall prey to hubris, complacency or just wretched luck.
Who’s capable of unseating Brisbane? Hawthorn, but only if they land a midfielder AND regain Day. Gold Coast and Fremantle, maybe. Geelong, written off almost every second year since Chris Scott’s arrival, can’t be discounted.
The Giants blew it in the 2024 finals when they were absolutely primed. Their issue is that, as a team reliant on the draft rather than trades, it is harder to gain ground over one post-season.
Collingwood, the best team for 16 rounds before a gradual unwinding, have indicated they wish to keep rolling and while mindful of their elderly cohort – and of a need to regenerate – the Magpies can be counted on to have a bob each way on continuing to contend.
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If many of the commentariat will be sceptics – there’s a lack of A-list youth – the Pies won’t. Their trading options, however, appear limited to cheap acquisitions such as Sydney’s Jack Buller. The pressing question is imminent – will they retain star forward Jamie Elliott, and/or Brody Mihocek?
The Western Bulldogs have midfield riches to match the Lions, Sam Darcy and Aaron Naughton. But there’s no one who can hold a candle to Harris Andrews down back, nor the array of small forwards that the lethal Lions own. They would like Callum Wilkie from the Saints, and have – pointedly – put a line through Steven May from the Demons.
Would Sydney jump back into contention with Charlie Curnow in red and white? Unlikely, based on an assessment of Brisbane’s squad and the trajectory of rivals.
As with most empires that unravelled, the most credible threat to Brisbane’s empire could come, not from the guns aimed at them but from within.
