U.S. President Donald Trump attends a press conference with U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer (not pictured) at Chequers at the conclusion of a state visit on Sept. 18, 2025 in Aylesbury, England. (Leon Neal/Getty Images)
The rapid thawing of long-frozen U.S.-Belarusian diplomatic relations continues to make the headlines, with U.S. President Donald Trump’s Envoy John Coale making another trip to Belarus on Sept. 11.
This visit secured the release of 52 prisoners and led to the U.S. lifting its sanctions on Belarus’s national airline, Belavia. More prisoner releases are expected in the coming weeks.
However, this fast-paced process has left the observers wondering what both sides stand to gain. For Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko, the benefits are slowly becoming apparent, as he sees sanctions on his regime being lifted.
The benefits for the United States, in contrast, remain obscure.
The negotiations process, which reportedly started over a year ago with U.S. President Joe Biden still in office, accelerated after President Donald Trump took office in January.
The United States engaged with Lukashenko in anticipation of setting up peace negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin, during which Lukashenko was to be a “whisperer in Putin’s ear.”
According to journalist Simon Shuster, the year of backchannel talks paved the way for the infamous and so far fruitless Alaska summit on Aug. 15. However, the talks also seem to have attracted Trump’s attention to Belarus and its over 1,100 political prisoners — he has posted about the issue three times on his social media platform Truth Social and mentioned the topic during a White House briefing on Sept. 5.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, flanked by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (R), meet during a U.S.-Russia summit on Ukraine at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska, on Aug. 15, 2025. (Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images)
“Trump’s administration somehow managed to sell it to him as a potential humanitarian victory. (…) Trump wants to have a traditional victory as a great leader who freed more than 1,000 hostages,” said Artsiom Shraibman, nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
Washington’s interest in negotiating with Minsk is best described as highly personalistic and fragile, according to Shraibman.
The prisoner releases in early 2025, including those of U.S. citizens and journalists from the U.S. broadcaster Radio Free Europe, appeared to be a form of down payment from the Lukashenko regime to build trust — they were met with only symbolic gestures, in the shape of social media posts by Trump and the visits by U.S. envoys.
June releases, including the one with opposition activist Siarhei Tsikhanouski, and the recent freeing of 52 more hostages seems to have achieved a tangible concession – the lifting of sanctionions placed on Belarusian air carrier Belavia, targeting aircraft servicing, parts, and software procurement.
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Considering Minsk’s close ties with Moscow, the license still comes with limitations. While restrictions were removed from eight aircraft in Belavia’s fleet, the Boeing 737-8EV (EW001PA) in Lukashenko’s direct use remains sanctioned. And authorization to use the fleet still prohibits flights to Russia, which Belavia performs extensively, and to Cuba, Iran, North Korea and the Russia-occupied regions of Ukraine.
The U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security to separately review Belavia’s aircraft parts requests on a case-by-case basis to ensure that they are deemed for its commercial fleet and not diverted to Russia or other “unsupported” end-users.
Boeing has not responded to the Kyiv Independent’s request for comment.
Securing prisoners’ freedom has become part of the efforts to “normalize relations” between Belarus and the United States, according to John Coale.
“President Trump feels that if you can have a relationship with people with whom you wouldn’t have had in the past, but try to build it up, then maybe we wouldn’t have as many wars on the table,” Coale said in an exclusive interview with DWS News.
Aside from the ambition to score a “humanitarian victory,” regional security is another factor to consider, according to Dr. Ryhor Astapenia, a Belarusian political scientist and director of the Belarus Initiative in the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House.
“(Trump administration) would like to have a voice within the Russian political system (and at this point, they likely view Lukashenko as a certain representative of it) to talk more about de-escalation,” Astapenia notes. “The rhetoric about the need for peace and negotiations used by Trump and Lukashenko is quite similar.”
Finally, according to Astapenia, creating room for maneuver for Lukashenko can be listed as another possible consideration.
“Looking at the increased Belarusian dependence on Russia over the past five years, (Trump’s administration) has likely come to the sad conclusion that Belarus might cease to exist in another 5-10 years under this regime,” Astapenia told the Kyiv Independent. “Stretching this process out for another 20 seems a better prospect.”
Lukashenko has reason for optimism so far, as he is slowly moving away from being an international pariah and is looking to restore the U.S. diplomatic mission in Minsk, and having U.S. sanctions lifted from Belarusian banks and producers of potash fertilizers — the country’s primary export.
Lukashenko has been in this position before: In 2015, he released the country’s political prisoners in exchange for improving relations with the West. Minsk went on to host negotiations set to resolve the war sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and annexation of Crimea.
A replay of this scenario would be favorable for Lukashenko, Dzianis Kuchynski, Tsikhanouskaya’s diplomatic advisor, who has been in touch with the U.S. administration, told the Kyiv Independent.
But it’s not yet the time to soften the approach to Lukashenko, Kuchynski says. “Lukashenko is even more dependent on Putin. Without him, Lukashenko would last about as long as a scuba diver without an oxygen tank. He might swim for a little while, but he would not reach the surface.”
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Kuchynski outlines two tracks for U.S.-Belarusian negotiations, much in line with Coale’s framing: the humanitarian track, which focuses on releasing unjustly detained individuals, and the political one, envisioning a halt to repression, a process of democratization, and, eventually, free elections in Belarus.
Political analysts conclude that the development of U.S.-Belarusian relations could be restricted by a variety of external factors, including Trump’s highly personalized interest, which might fade over time, possible deadlock in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, and the continuation of European sanctions — if European restrictions are not lifted, any suspension of U.S. sanctions would be fuitile.
Lithuania, home to Klaipeda Seaport, which served as the European gateway for Belarusian potash exports, remains firm in upholding sanctions against Lukashenko. Poland, which recently saw around 20 Russian drones invade its airspace, has taken even harsher measures in its dealings with Lukashenko – including a temporary yet total shutdown of the Polish-Belarusian border.
“We don’t see that the European Union has any appetite right now to change its policy towards Lukashenko, lift some sanctions from him, or do some legitimization reset with him,” Kuchynski said.
Still, despite the risks of the West falling victim to Lukashenko’s deceptions, there may still be value to be gained from the process, Shraibman argues. He points to the previous thaw in relations in 2015, during which Belarusian civil society received a respite, which it used to develop and grow, ultimately leading to the 2020 mass protests.
But the reversal of any liberalizations after the conclusion of the negotiation process is also quite possible, considering Lukashenko’s need to prepare for the transition of power in Belarus in the not-to-distant future, according to Shraibman.
“But honestly, this is still hardly a reason not to try to save people’s lives in this process. And perhaps that is valuable in itself.”
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