Under house arrest and without a clear indication of his group’s electoral strategy, former President Jair Bolsonaro is set to receive on Monday (29) a key figure in defining the 2026 race: Governor Tarcísio de Freitas of São Paulo. Considered by different sectors as the main heir to Mr. Bolsonaro’s political base, he has signaled a retreat from a potential presidential bid and has again stressed his plan to seek reelection in São Paulo, after losing ground to both rivals and allies.
The visit, authorized by Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, comes after Mr. Freitas denied last week that Mr. Bolsonaro had already endorsed him as a candidate. According to people close to the governor, he wants to focus on São Paulo and his campaign for a second term, seen as a safer bet than facing President Lula in a national race.
According to allies, Mr. Freitas’s shift comes at a time when Brazil’s right wing is under pressure from several fronts. Polls have shown the governor’s image has suffered since the start of tensions between the United States and Brazil. He was forced to change tone after initially supporting the tariff hike against Brazil announced by U.S. President Donald Trump.
One of the governor’s confidants said the experience of “being attacked from both sides” had brought “discouragement.” Allies had long maintained he would run if Mr. Bolsonaro considered it his “mission.” Now, there are doubts about the real level of support within the Bolsonaro family. Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro is openly against his father’s backing of Mr. Freitas, labeling him a candidate of the “center-right bloc” and “the system.” Mr. Bolsonaro himself has never vetoed the governor but is studying other scenarios.
The former president’s group has recently faced a series of setbacks, sparking a crisis in the right wing and making center-right parties more hesitant about 2026. The left’s return to the streets, the resounding defeat of the so-called “immunity amendment,” Mr. Trump’s outreach to President Lula, and President Lula’s improved approval ratings have added more uncertainty to who will emerge as the opposition’s candidate.
Mr. Freitas, considered by centrist parties as their “dream candidate” for being the most competitive, has absorbed part of the crisis. Embarrassed, he was forced to defend protests against the immunity amendment, which his allies in Congress had sponsored. At the same time, former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro has admitted she may run, describing herself as the “lioness of the right.”
A poll commissioned by Mr. Freitas’s party, Republicans, shows the former first lady with voting potential close to that of the governor. However, the survey concluded that her support could “melt away” easily during the campaign, given her limited ability to debate more experienced rivals.
The Bolsonaro family’s lack of consensus on Mr. Freitas, combined with President Lula’s recovering approval, has led centrist leaders to consider other options to challenge the president. “There is more serious attention now being given to Ratinho Jr.,” said a senior Centrist leader, referring to the governor of Paraná.
Another influential party, the Progressive Party, believes Mr. Freitas’s hesitation has made his candidacy unviable. “It’s too late for him to risk losing both the presidency and the governorship of São Paulo. If there is still any endorsement, it is already too late,” said a party heavyweight.
If Mr. Freitas were to run for president, he would need to resign as governor by early April. Allies calculate that a defeat would effectively end his career, leaving him without any office.
An influential Republicans lawmaker said “a significant part of the electorate mobilizes only around the Bolsonaro name,” making Ms. Bolsonaro a relevant political asset. The party would like Mr. Freitas to head the presidential ticket with the former first lady as his running mate. Still, it admits this scenario is unlikely and stresses the governor must improve the timing of his statements to avoid fueling tensions with the Bolsonaro base.
According to aides, the governor made visiting the former president his top priority during his trip to Brasília on Monday. Asked about the visit, he avoided saying whether his stop in the capital would include meetings with other leaders, as had happened earlier this month during discussions on the amnesty bill for participants in the coup plot.
Mr. Freitas already visited Mr. Bolsonaro under house arrest in August, though the details of that conversation were kept secret. This time, he said he would “visit a friend” and “show solidarity.” Senator Flávio Bolsonaro said Mr. Freitas is loyal to his father and will be with them in 2026, but denied that an agreement on his candidacy had been sealed. Speaking to Valor, state legislator Gil Diniz, an ally of Eduardo Bolsonaro, said he finds it unlikely the former president has already decided. “It doesn’t make much sense. Of course, he must be considering it, but that decision will only be made later on,” he said.
Valdemar Costa Neto, national president of the Liberal Party, continues to say the final decision rests with Mr. Bolsonaro. Behind the scenes, however, he believes the former first lady is a strong option—perhaps the best among the family’s choices. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, meanwhile, insists the only viable candidate is his father himself.
