Assam Election 2026: The politics of Assam is once again heating up as the state moves toward its next Assembly elections, scheduled for 2026. Known for its unique blend of ethnic diversity, identity politics, and other challenges, Assam has long been a key battleground in Indian politics, and the recent infiltration issue has sharpened the political rhetoric in the state that shares borders with Bhutan and Bangladesh. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has held power since 2016, marking the end of over a decade of Congress dominance.
The upcoming political battle could serve as a pivotal rematch between two contrasting political figures: Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma and Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi. Himanta Biswa Sarma, once a part of the Congress, has now turned into one of the most influential faces of the saffron party in the Northeast. Under his leadership, the party secured a consecutive term in 2021, a first for any non-Congress government in Assam. On the other side of the ring is Gaurav Gogoi, who has big shoes to fill, as his father, the late Tarun Gogoi, served as Chief Minister of Assam for 15 years.
Gaurav Gogoi vs Himanta Biswa Sarma
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While Gogoi is the Lok Sabha MP at present, his capability to spearhead the Congress into power in the state has repeatedly been questioned. When asked if Gaurav Gogoi can realistically close the gap and overturn CM Sarma’s dominance in the 2026 Assam elections, Dr. Alankar Kaushik, Professor at EFL University, stated that Gaurav Gogoi is the Congress party’s comeback hope in Assam. Handed the party’s top post in May 2025, he is being positioned as the man who could reignite the Congress fire in a state where the BJP’s grip looks unbreakable.
“His crushing win in the 2024 Jorhat Lok Sabha battle, beating BJP’s Topon Kumar Gogoi by over 1.4 lakh votes, wasn’t a fluke. It was a statement: he knows how to connect, campaign, and win…But the challenge is monumental. Himanta Biswa Sarma’s BJP remains disciplined, dominant, and deeply entrenched. Yet, power breeds complacency, and that is where cracks are forming. Anti-incumbency is brewing, digital campaigns from Congress are gaining ground, and whispers of unrest within the BJP’s ranks are growing louder,” Dr. Kaushik elaborated.
He also explained that though it’s too early for predictions, the stage is set, the battle lines are drawn, and Assam’s political future could hinge on whether Gogoi can ride the wave before it recedes.
Congress’ Support For Gaurav Gogoi
Dr. Kaushik elaborated on the role that Congress’ central leadership is playing by backing Gogoi with resources and strategy.
“Congress is rallying behind Gaurav Gogoi with strategy and symbolism, but it’s still trailing. The BJP, meanwhile, dominates with money, manpower, and a relentless ground game. This isn’t just an ideological clash anymore; it’s a contest between resources and resolve. Gogoi’s challenge is clear: can he convert support into real momentum before the BJP’s well-oiled machinery outpaces him?” he said.
Personal Attacks
Dr. Kaushik explained that the personal attacks, like targeting Gogoi’s family or citizenship, are a double-edged sword. He added that while they may energize certain voters by playing on identity and emotions, they shift focus from real issues. Furthermore, they also risk alienating moderates and undecided voters, who may view such tactics as divisive or petty.
“In sensitive regions like Assam, this could deepen polarization and even boost sympathy for the target. The outcome depends on whether the public sees it as a fair critique or a smear and whether it backfires. Such attacks may bring short-term gains but come with serious strategic and reputational risks,” he added.
When asked about the saffron party’s assessment of Gaurav Gogoi’s influence as the opposition’s face in Assam, Kishor Upadhyay, Assam BJP spokesperson, stated that they do not view the Congress leader as a significant threat in the upcoming elections.
In contrast, Manoj Chauhan, AICC Secretary, Assam in-charge, expressed confidence in Gogoi’s role as the party’s prominent face in the state and assured that the top leadership would be actively involved in the election campaign.
Also Read: From Assam, Amit Shah’s Big Anti-Infiltration Pitch; Says, ‘Not Even Single…’
Role Of Identity Politics
According to Dr. Kaushik, since 1979, issues related to identity, citizenship, and migration have been deeply embedded in Assam’s political landscape and continue to shape electoral outcomes. With elections nearing in 2026, voter alignment along ethnic, religious, and linguistic lines is expected to intensify.
“The BJP’s narrative of safeguarding Assamese identity appeals to certain groups, while the opposition’s calls for fairness and inclusion aim to attract marginalized communities. Identity politics remains a key driver of Assam’s political contest,” he continued.
In February, Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma alleged that Congress MP Gaurav Gogoi’s wife, Elizabeth Gogoi, had links with Pakistan and the ISI, claiming she had visited Pakistan even after their marriage. Responding to the claims, Gaurav Gogoi dismissed them as baseless, sarcastically stating that if his wife were an ISI agent, then he must be a R&AW agent, and accused the CM of trying to deflect from allegations against himself.
As the 2026 elections approach, the question that brews up: can the Congress, under Gaurav Gogoi, mount a serious challenge to the BJP in Assam? The polls are certainly going to be a spectacle to watch.
