ISW: Russia fakes battlefield gains in Kherson city to convince the West it’s winning the war—but Ukrainian troops filmed strolling there next day

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In its latest disinformation effort, the Kremlin launched a staged narrative claiming Russian forces had seized a strategic bridgehead in Kherson Oblast. But geolocated footage published by Ukrainian troops shows otherwise. Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports the operation is part of Moscow’s broader cognitive warfare campaign aimed at making Ukraine submit and discouraging Western support by convincing the US and EU that a Russian victory is inevitable.

Amid the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war, Moscow continues its propaganda campaigns targeting both Ukraine’s will to resist and the West’s will to support it.

Russia stages false bridgehead in Kherson

Russian-installed Kherson occupation head Vladimir Saldo published footage on 22 October showing a Russian soldier raising a flag on Karantynnyi Island in the 5th Selyshche Microraion in southwestern Kherson City. Saldo claimed Russian reconnaissance and airborne units had crossed the Dnipro River, repelled Ukrainian counterattacks, secured a bridgehead, mined access routes, and begun organizing logistics for a sustained presence.

Some Russian milbloggers echoed Saldo’s narrative, crediting drone operators of the 31st VDV Brigade with establishing air superiority and artillery units of the 18th Combined Arms Army with striking Ukrainian targets on the island and nearby bridges. One milblogger also alleged Russian sabotage groups were preparing to hunt Ukrainian forces in the Korabelnyi Microraion on the northeastern part of the island.

Ukrainian forces bust Russian claims

On 23 October, a Ukrainian brigade released a geolocated video showing its troops moving freely through Ostriv Microraion—part of Karantynnyi Island—directly contradicting Russian claims of an active military presence. The brigade stated that Karantynnyi Island, as well as the areas of Antonivka and Sadove east of Kherson City, remain “silent,” with no sign of Russian forces on the west bank of the Dnipro River.

A Russian milblogger focused on the Kherson front had claimed Russian troops had pushed Ukrainian forces out of Sadove and conducted sabotage near Antonivka. ISW assessed that no available evidence supports these assertions.

“The Kremlin is attempting to falsely portray Russian forces as having established a bridgehead in west (right) bank Kherson Oblast – a new Russian cognitive warfare effort against Ukraine and its partners,” ISW wrote, adding: “Available evidence continues to indicate that Russian forces have not established a bridgehead or begun an offensive in west bank Kherson Oblast.“

According to ISW, this information operation fits within a larger pattern: the Kremlin wants to project inevitability of victory to the European Union, the US, and Ukraine itself, encouraging submission to Moscow’s demands and eroding foreign support for Ukraine. ISW notes this narrative undermines Russia’s own occasional signals of willingness to negotiate territorial matters in southern Ukraine.

“ISW continues to assess that this Russian cognitive warfare effort is incompatible with any claim that Russia is willing to make territorial concessions in southern Ukraine,” the think tank concluded.