Day 1,342: dozens of drones attack Moscow

Dozens of drones attack Moscow, with explosions audible across the city. Putin is unlikely to accept a peace plan that Ukraine is drafting with European allies, Zelenskyi says. Putin and Gerasimov make exaggerated claims of Russia’s battlefield victories, ISW says.

Dozens of drones attack Moscow

Dozens of drones attacked Moscow on Sunday evening and in the early hours of Monday, the city’s mayor Sergey Sobyanin said. Reports of explosions in the Moscow region were shared across social media. One image showed a mobile air defense team outside the Kremlin.

Russia’s defense ministry said it had shot down 193 Ukrainian drones overnight on Monday, including 40 in the Moscow region, of which 34 were flying toward the capital.

Social media reports said explosions were audible across several neighborhoods in the city. Moscow’s Domodedovo and Zhukovsky airports were briefly closed.

Russia said it had also shot down 47 drones over the Bryansk region, 42, 32 and 10 drones over the regions of Kaluga, Tula and Kursk respectively.

Putin unlikely to accept peace plan Ukraine is drafting with European allies, Zelenskyi says

After the meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi on October 17, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer suggested putting forward a peace proposal for Ukraine, Axios said Monday.

The plan should be short, without too many details, Zelenskyi said. “Some quick points. Like a plan for a ceasefire. We decided we will work on it in the next week or ten days.” He stressed he’s skeptical that Putin is ready to accept any peace plan.

European nations are working with Ukraine on a 12-point proposal to end Russia’s war along current battle lines, Bloomberg News said on October 21.

A peace board chaired by U.S. President Donald Trump would oversee implementation of the proposed plan, according to people familiar with the matter.

In a statement issued on October 21, European leaders said they “strongly support” an immediate halt to Russia’s war in Ukraine along current battle lines to start peace talks as they try to renew momentum toward ending the war. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi has backed the idea of freezing the fighting along the frontlines and was included in the statement, Bloomberg News said.

Other leaders endorsing the call included German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

“We strongly support President Trump’s position that the fighting should stop immediately, and that the current line of contact should be the starting point of negotiations,” the leaders said. “We remain committed to the principle that international borders must not be changed by force.”

Putin and Gerasimov make exaggerated claims of Russia’s battlefield victories, ISW says

Russian leader Vladimir Putin and Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov continue to make exaggerated claims of battlefield victories while demonstrating that the Kremlin remains committed to seizing the entirety of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in an update on Sunday. The paragraphs below are quoted from the report.

Putin held a meeting on October 26 with Gerasimov and the commanders of the Russian groupings of forces. Putin notably wore a military uniform for the meeting, only the third time he has worn a uniform to a public event since the start of the full-scale invasion, and only a few weeks after the second time he did so on September 16.

Gerasimov opened his report to Putin by stating that Russian forces continue to carry out tasks to seize Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts. Gerasimov’s statement reiterates Putin’s longstanding demand that Ukraine hand over the entirety of the four illegally annexed regions to Russia while undermining recent Russian offers to exchange territory in southern Ukraine for full control over Donetsk Oblast.

Gerasimov claimed, very likely falsely, that Russian forces have surrounded up to 5,500 Ukrainian troops in the Pokrovsk direction and blocked a group of 31 Ukrainian battalions near Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad (east of Pokrovsk). 

Gerasimov claimed that Russian authorities have tasked the Central Grouping of Forces with destroying the allegedly encircled Ukrainian forces near Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.

Gerasimov also claimed that Russian forces have advanced in southern Vovchansk (northeast of Kharkiv City) and seized over 70 percent of the town. 

Gerasimov claimed that Russian forces continue urban combat in Siversk and Kostyantynivka.

Gerasimov similarly claimed that the Russian Western Grouping of Forces have encircled Kupyansk (…), and worked with elements of the 47th Tank Division and 27th Motorized Rifle Brigade (both of the 1st Guards Tank Army [GTA], Moscow Military District [MMD]) to block Ukrainian forces on the east (left) bank of the Oskil River east of Kupyansk. 

Putin similarly falsely claimed in October 2024 that Russian forces encircled 2,000 Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast and later claimed in March 2025 that Russian forces had “isolated” Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast and that it was “impossible” for small groups of Ukrainian forces to withdraw from positions in Kursk Oblast.

Russian forces did not encircle significant numbers of Ukrainian forces during the Russian operations to retake Kursk Oblast in late 2024 and early 2025, despite Putin’s claims.

Russian milbloggers widely denied Gerasimov’s claims. Several milbloggers claimed that Gerasimov was lying and that Russian forces had not encircled Ukrainian forces in Kupyansk and Pokrovsk. One milblogger stated that there is still a multi-kilometer corridor between Russian groups operating west and north of Pokrovsk, and another noted that Russian fire control over Ukrainian GLOCs does not mean that Russian forces have encircled Ukrainian forces in the area. 

One milblogger noted that Ukrainian forces often maintain positions in settlements that Russian sources claim that Russian forces have seized and stated that Pokrovsk and Kupyansk are “100 percent chaos.” Another milblogger assessed that Gerasimov is “getting ahead of himself again” and expects reality on the ground to “soon catch up with his reports.”

The milblogger assessed that Gerasimov’s report aims to provoke US President Donald Trump to “request mercy” for the encircled Ukrainian forces and to give Trump the impression of serious Ukrainian problems on the front, as the milblogger assessed Putin’s claims about encircled Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast in March 2025 aimed to do. Gerasimov similarly presented exaggerated territorial claims in late August 2025, including about Kupyansk, that Russian milbloggers heavily criticized.

The Kremlin is exploiting Russia’s recent reliance on infiltration missions and the absence of contiguous front lines in some tactical areas, as well as the resulting interspersal of forces to make exaggerated battlefield claims. The Ukrainian General Staff acknowledged on October 26 that the situation near Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad remains difficult and noted Russia’s use of infiltration missions into Pokrovsk. ISW continues to assess that Russian forces are making gains near and within Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad that are tactically significant but likely do not portend the imminent collapse of Ukrainian defenses in the area. Russian forces have been increasingly leveraging infiltrations between Ukrainian positions to make false claims of advances and consolidated gains.

Putin’s and Gerasimov’s claims of battlefield victories are part of the ongoing Kremlin cognitive warfare effort to falsely portray a Russian victory as inevitable, such that Ukraine and the West should concede to Russia’s demands now.

Putin attempted to justify Russia’s slow pace of advance because of Russian concern for civilian safety and casualties. Putin falsely claimed that Russian forces will not be working toward any specific deadlines but will put the safety of Russian servicemembers first, setting conditions to justify continued slow Russian advances in the future. Putin asked Russian forces to ensure Ukrainian forces can safely surrender and claimed that Russian forces have “historically always treated defeated enemies with mercy.” ISW has observed ample evidence of Russia’s blatant disregard for civilian safety and deliberate murders of Ukrainian civilians, including prolific first-person view (FPV) drone strikes against civilians in Kherson Oblast since late 2023 and recent murders of civilians in Pokrovsk and Zvanivka, Bakhmutsky Raion. ISW has also observed repeated reports of Russia executing surrendering Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs).


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