B.C. Premier David Eby and Energy Minister Adrian Dix are proposing big changes to energy policy to allow the province to cash in one of its most valuable assets: electricity.
“We need to leverage the benefits that we have here in order to realize the prosperity that we want,” Eby said on Oct. 21 as he unveiled a suite of changes to provincial laws and regulations.
“We need to ensure that we’re accessing that clean, reliable, affordable power — the kind of power that will give us an edge in the global economy.”
According to Eby, the best use for that power is electrifying emission intensive industries, like mining and liquefied natural gas (LNG) production, and ports to ship those goods overseas. Offering interested companies quick and low-cost access to B.C.’s electricity resources — not to mention their own dedicated transmission line — will bring big economic benefits, Eby argued.
The LNG Canada facility in Kitimat, B.C., will be the most emissions-intensive LNG project in the province. Critics wonder how B.C. will reconcile its goal of lowering emissions with a simultaneous push to expand the LNG sector. Photo: Marty Clemens / The Narwhal
Over the past week, the premier and the energy minister have claimed the public benefits of the government’s plans are so self-evident that the usual independent oversight and public scrutiny are not warranted. They said the province needs to fast-track the North Coast transmission line, cap the amount of electricity available for AI and data centres and prioritize power for natural resource projects — and quickly, or risk missing the moment and the money at stake.
Bill 31, the Energy Statutes Amendment Act, would give the government the power to deprioritize electricity access for some industrial customers, while fast-tracking the North Coast transmission line to ensure others have access to the electricity they want. The bill will also make it possible for First Nations to purchase an ownership stake in the North Coast transmission line.
B.C. bets big changes to energy policy will reap massive rewards
But experts in energy and climate policy are skeptical about the rosy economic picture the B.C. government is painting.
Andy Hira, a political science professor at Simon Fraser University and director of the Clean Energy Research Group at Simon Fraser University, said northern B.C. — especially First Nations communities — could use an economic boost and new sources of revenue. But Hira said he is “skeptical that diverting this power towards natural resource industries will provide that economic diversification.”
“The intentions are correct, but there really isn’t a viable plan there to deliver the economic development that they suggest,” Hira told The Narwhal.
Bill 31: B.C.’s claims about prioritizing resource sector electrification lack substance, experts say
The B.C. government has said the North Coast transmission line will bring the province 9,700 full-time jobs and around $950 million a year in public revenue, while adding nearly $10 billion annually to B.C.’s gross domestic product (GDP).
Those benefits would supposedly come from boosting the power supply at the Port of Prince Rupert, eventually electrifying at least two LNG facilities and providing power to multiple critical minerals mines.
Mining and Critical Minerals Minister Jagrup Brar estimated the transmission line could serve “half a dozen private mining projects worth $50 billion in investment.” Michael Goehring, CEO of the Mining Association of BC, said mines electrified by the transmission line “will deliver some $420 billion in economic activity” over several decades.
While those numbers sound impressive, climate and energy policy experts say more information is needed to back up the government’s claims.
“What is the long term economic case for these projects?” asked Kathryn Harrison, a professor of political science at the University of British Columbia who focuses on climate policy. “Why are these projects seen as the best bet for British Columbia’s economic future?”
Michael Goehring, CEO of the Mining Association of BC, says the North Coast transmission line could help electrify critical mineral and precious metal mines that could bring up $420 billion in economic activity to B.C. over several decades. Photo: Province of B.C. / Flickr
Electrifying LNG production could be particularly problematic, Harrison said, if the massive amounts of power those projects use means missing out on emissions reduction opportunities in other sectors.
“If the province is expecting to deliver a lot of clean electricity to mining and LNG, should we be confident that we’re also going to have enough increased capacity to electrify buildings and transportation and other smaller industrial users?” Harrison said in an interview. “Because to get to net zero, we basically will be electrifying almost everything.”
The B.C. government’s belief that LNG projects will be a big economic boon for the province also raises red flags for Hira.
“Every analysis across the board, including the International Energy Agency, suggests that LNG markets and oil markets will tank in the next 10 years because there is such a glut of supply coming online,” Hira told The Narwhal.
Hira disagrees with the government’s position that natural resource projects will bring bigger economic benefits to B.C. than AI and data centres and should therefore be prioritized for power access while the tech sector projects get limited access.
He also strongly believes the government’s analysis of how much power specific projects could use and the jobs, revenue and emissions they would generate should be publicly available.
“There should be an analysis about what is the best use of that electricity and right now, there is no sign that the provincial government has thought through that question at all,” Hira said.
Bypassing independent review of the North Coast transmission line is ‘anti-democratic’
The B.C. government’s decision to exempt the North Coast transmission line from scrutiny by the B.C. Utilities Commission is also cause for concern, Hira said.
“The problem is you’re asking BC Hydro, which is a huge entity, to be accountable to itself, and that’s just an inherent conflict of interest,” he told The Narwhal. “They’re suggesting that the normal processes of accountability and due diligence are just being waived for this transmission line.”
Normally, the commission would assess a proposal like the North Coast transmission line by digging into details like potential economic and emission reduction benefits, as well as possible trade-offs, alternatives and conflicts. BC Hydro would lay out its case for building the line and other stakeholders, local governments, First Nations and members of the public would have the opportunity to weigh in.
Dix said the 12 to 18 months needed for the commission to complete its review would do little besides increase costs for the transmission line, which have already doubled since 2023.
“We’ve decided it’s a provincial-interest project,” Dix told The Narwhal. “We’re proceeding with the project.”
For Hira, the time needed for the commission to complete its review of the case for the North Coast transmission line “is nothing compared to the 40 or 50 years in which this will be affecting the province.”
The move to bypass the B.C. Utilities Commission brings up the spectre of another energy megaproject: the Site C dam. The BC Liberal government of the day directed the commission to issue the certificate without a review, a decision the NDP government reversed in 2017.
Hira believes the NDP government is now repeating its predecessor’s mistake.
“This is really anti-democratic in its essence because it’s saying, ‘We don’t want to deal with any pesky potential questions that come up in public hearings, so we’re going to bypass that because we know better,” Hira said.
Richard Mason is a former member of the B.C. Utilities Commission and served on the 2017 panel that reviewed Site C. He believes the commission could help daylight critical information about the North Coast transmission line and whether the province has better options to electrify the northwest.
“Is a transmission line really necessary? Would it actually be better off overall if BC Hydro generated the electricity locally?”
The commission could also help get British Columbians on board with the project.
“I don’t believe we have the social licence for this transmission line, regardless of what Premier Eby says,” Mason told The Narwhal. “And the more people think about it and the more it is publicized, Premier Eby may find he doesn’t have the support he’s claiming right now.”
Who is going to pay?
The most pressing public interest question about the B.C. government’s plans to prioritize electricity for the natural resource sector is a simple one: who is going to pay for it?
The estimated cost for the first two phases of the North Coast transmission line has already doubled to $6 billion and Phase 3 of the project does not yet have a price estimate.
The province is also planning to change the way BC Hydro assigns costs for infrastructure needed to supply major industrial projects with the intent of reducing the amount of money projects have to pony up to connect to the grid.
Currently, a rule — known as tariff supplement 6 — requires new industrial customers seeking more than about 150 megawatts of power to pay the incremental costs of generating and transmitting the power that exceeds that threshold. Tariff supplement 6 is meant to protect other BC Hydro customers from being hit with higher electricity prices as a result of investments to serve large industrial customers.
Eby called the rule “outdated,” while Dix suggested it discriminates against larger industrial customers, weighing their power demand but not their benefits.
“What the current system says is that 130 megawatts is treated differently than 170 megawatts, even though 170 megawatts may produce more jobs,” he told The Narwhal.
Dix refused to say whether the government’s intent is to change the transmission section of tariff supplement 6 so that smaller industrial projects are also required to contribute toward the costs of their BC Hydro connections.
Energy Minister Adrian Dix says there is no question the North Coast transmission line is in the public interest. Photo: Province of B.C. / Flickr
There are only three options for recouping the costs of new electricity infrastructure and generation capacity, Mason noted.
“It’s either the new customers, all customers or the government, which means taxpayers,” he said. “So the fact that Premier Eby and Minister Dix are being evasive on this makes me very nervous.”
Harrison observed that the government’s press release states an intent to “provide cost certainty for large industrial customers.”
“[That] seems to be about giving them certainty that those costs will be shared with other electricity consumers,” she said. “It’s certainty that they wouldn’t have to pay the full cost of the delivery of that electricity to these very large users and that’s a real worry because those costs are still going to exist. Who is going to pay them, if not those big users?”
The question of who pays to add capacity to BC Hydro’s grid is especially pressing as B.C. faces the looming reality that its abundant existing hydropower will fall far short of what the province needs to electrify communities and the economy.
The province could face an energy deficit as soon as 2029, according to BC Hydro’s most recent estimate, without an additional 3,700 megawatts of electricity from new power sources added to the mix. That estimate does not include the massive amounts of electricity that mining and LNG projects in northwest B.C. are seeking.
“There’s going to be an excess of demand compared to the power that’s available and we have to decide what criteria we’re going to use to sell that electricity,” Hira said. “Is it going to be because we believe that resource intensive sectors are better for some reason that’s not clear? Or are we going to sell it to the highest bidder?”
