No 10 accepts people are ‘disappointed with the pace of change’ as Plaid Cymru celebrates Caerphilly byelection win – as it happpened

Downing Street: government understands ‘people are disappointed with the pace of change’

The prime minister’s press secretary has responded to the Caerphilly Senedd constituency byelection, which saw a huge swing away from Labour, by saying that “Byelections are always difficult for incumbent governments,” PA Media reports.

It quotes them saying:

This one is no different, but we are determined to show the people of Caerphilly and working people across Wales the change the UK Government is delivering hand in hand with the Labour government in Wales.

(We are) determined to go further and faster, understand people are disappointed with the pace of change, and that is what the Government is relentlessly focused on delivering for working people in Wales and across the UK.

Updated at 13.42 CEST

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Martin Belam

The prime minister’s press secretary has responded to the Caerphilly Senedd constituency byelection, which saw a victory for Plaid Cymru with Reform UK in second place and a huge swing away from Labour, by saying “By-elections are always difficult for incumbent governments. [We] understand people are disappointed with the pace of change”

Lindsay Whittle has been sworn in as the Plaid Cymru Senedd member for Caerphilly in Cardiff after taking 47% of the vote with 15,961. Reform UK’s Llŷr Powell polled 12,113 with Labour’s Richard Tunnicliffe a distant third on 3,713

Chart showing vote outcome

Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth said the result was “real evidence” people are turning to the party, and it was “clear” that “momentum is with Plaid Cymru now” heading into the 2026 Senedd election

Liz Saville Roberts, the Plaid Cymru leader in Westminster said “Plaid Cymru’s hope beat Reform’s hate” and that the result was another blow to Labour, showing the party’s “limp managerialism won’t cut it”

The leader of Reform UK, the Clacton MP Nigel Farage, said next year’s Senedd election – the first to be held under a proportional representation system – will be a “two-horse race between Reform UK and Plaid Cymru”

Nick Thomas-Symonds, a Cabinet Office minister and MP for Torfaen in south Wales, told Times Radio that Labour’s defeat in Caerphilly was “disappointing” and that the party had “a very tough fight” on its hands ahead of next year’s Senedd elections

In other news, the Liberal Democrats have decided gone on the offensive against Kemi Badenoch and the previous Conservative government over the collapse of the China spy trial, demanding “radical transparency” after it emerged that Rishi Sunak was the only politician to see a witness statement by the deputy national security adviser at the centre of the controversy about the collapse of a case against two British men

Your Party, the new left-wing movement led by Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana, has secured its first elected representatives in Scotland after three Glasgow councillors defected from the Scottish Greens

Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrived in Downing Street for a bilateral meeting with Keir Starmer. Sarah Haque has been following that story on our Europe live blog

That is it from me, Martin Belam, today. Thank you for reading and all your comments. I will see you on the website somewhere soon.

Labour MP for Bradford East, Imran Hussain, who has spent a period during this parliament with the whip suspended, has said what he called the “devastating” loss in the Caerphilly Senedd constituency by-election was a “wake-up call” for his party.

In a post to social media, Hussain wrote:

The devastating loss in Caerphilly is a wake-up call for Labour. To rebuild support, we must return to real Labour values. Those with the broadest shoulders should bear the greatest burden. We should tax the very wealthiest and act urgently on the cost-of-living crisis.

Richard Burgon, Labour MP for nearby Leeds East, who also had the whip restored in February of this year, took a similar tack, posting “The historic loss of Caerphilly is the direct result of the disastrous direction taken by the Labour leadership.”

The Liberal Democrats have decided to go on the offensive against Kemi Badenoch and the previous Conservative government over the collapse of the China spy trial.

Earlier Peter Walker reported that Rishi Sunak was the only politician to see a witness statement by the deputy national security adviser at the centre of the controversy about the collapse of a case against two British men.

Liberal Democrat home affairs spokesperson Max Wilkinson has called for “radical transparency” from the Conservatives. In a statement he said:

Kemi Badenoch has well and truly been hoist by her own petard. We’ve long suspected that both the Conservatives and Labour had serious questions to answer over this case. Today’s revelations make a mockery of the Conservative leadership’s faux outrage over the past fortnight – they owe the public an apology for misleading them. 

Now it’s time for Kemi Badenoch to answer some of the very questions she’s been so keen to ask. Did Matthew Collins meet with ministers between the initial draft and the final submission of the witness statement? And who were the mysterious “backchannels” referenced in Collins statements who were tasked with suppressing the questions of backbenchers while the Tories were in government? It’s time for some radical transparency from the Conservatives.

Last week Badenoch described Keir Starmer not moving to interfere in the case as “a shameful dereliction of duty”. Starmer said she was making “completely scurrilous allegations”.

PA Media reports that Lindsay Whittle has now been sworn in as the Plaid Cymru Senedd member for the Caerphilly constituency.

Tim Shipman in the Spectator’s Lunchtime Espresso newsletter has done his best to find some crumbs of comfort for Keir Starmer and the Labour party in the wake of Plaid Cymru’s victory in the Caerphilly Senedd constituency by-election. He writes:

Hidden within this humiliation, I wonder whether there is good news for the prime minister. This was also a very disappointing result for Reform. Over breakfast I ran into both a major player from No 10 and a senior figure in Reform. The former was sanguine: “It’s not as if we expected to win.” The latter was chastened, saying he was “recovering” from the result.

The reason is that there seems to have been a colossal amount of tactical voting. “It shows that, the more it looks like Reform might win, the more people will try to stop them,” a Labour source said. If that is replicated in 2029, Starmer’s huge majority would evaporate but his chances of remaining in government with an alliance of progressive parties would increase. If the next election is a referendum on Starmer, that could be bad news for Labour. If it is a referendum on Nigel Farage, that could play into Starmer’s hands.

Updated at 15.48 CEST

Lindsay Whittle and Rhun ap Iorwerth have made their way from Caerphilly to Cardiff, where they were greeted by Plaid Cymru Senedd members, supporters and activists ahead of Whittle being sworn in to represent Caerphilly in the Senedd after his by-election victory.

Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth (L) walks to the Senedd with Lindsay Whittle (R). Photograph: Matthew Horwood/Getty ImagesPlaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth (L) with Lindsay Whittle (R) and party members on the steps of the Senedd. Photograph: Matthew Horwood/Getty ImagesShare

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SharePeter Walker

Peter Walker is a senior political correspondent for the Guardian:

Rishi Sunak was the only politician to see a witness statement by the deputy national security adviser at the centre of controversy about the collapse of a case against two British men accused of spying for China.

According to letters sent to the joint committee on the national security strategy, the statement from Matthew Collins in December 2023, which was seen by the then prime minister and his advisers, did not describe China as an enemy, another key element of the case.

The letters also set out that by this point, the start of the prosecution process, both police and prosecutors were told that Collins would not call China an enemy as this was not government policy.

The case against the men, Christopher Cash and Christopher Berry, was dropped in September after prosecutors concluded that a conviction under the Official Secrets Act was not realistic without government evidence China posed a threat to the UK’s national security. Both Cash and Clark have consistently denied any wrongdoing.

Read more of Peter Walker’s report here: Rishi Sunak only politician to see witness statement in China spy case

Volodymyr Zelenskyy has arrived in Downing Street for a bilateral meeting with Keir Starmer. My colleague Sarah Haque has been following that story on our Europe live blog.

Britain’s prime minister Keir Starmer hugs Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Downing Street, Photograph: Henry Nicholls/AFP/Getty ImagesShare

Columnist Will Hayward offers his views on the Caerphilly Senedd constituency by-election result, saying:

UK Labour have long taken Wales, the most stable brick in its red wall, for granted. Yet the party’s support has been crumbling for years, without it even realising. In the aftermath of the result I have heard Labour people talk about the need for a change of messaging, for the party to become more critical of Plaid’s stance on Welsh independence, for instance, or to differentiate Welsh Labour from UK Labour.

While this is undoubtedly needed it misses the fundamental issue here – that for a very long time Welsh Labour has ceased to be visibly improving the lives of people in Wales. Forget changing messaging. Labour controls the Welsh and UK parliaments. It will never be better equipped than it is right now to make change. It should be making meaningful change in the present.

You can read more of Will Hayward’s opinion piece here: Reform swaggered into Caerphilly, ready for a coronation. An unpleasant surprise lay in store