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The Russian salient north of Pokrovsk may have been an elaborate diversion

Marching through porous Ukrainian defenses toward Dobropillia, the Russians threatened Ukrainian logistics

The march may have had another purpose: to draw Ukrainian reinforcements away from Pokrovsk

The yearlong siege of Pokrovsk is coming to an end. At the same time, the three-month battle for the Dobropillia salient, a few kilometers north of Pokrovsk, is also coming to an end.

It may not be a coincidence. It’s possible the Russians have fought just hard enough around Dobropillia to tie down Ukrainian reserves who otherwise might have rushed south and reinforced Pokrovsk.

In other words, Russian commanders may have viewed the Dobropillia salient as a “counter-fixation axis for Ukrainian reserves,” according to military theorist Delwin. The tactic—known as a counter-fixation axis—works by threatening a secondary objective to pin down enemy reserves, preventing them from reinforcing the primary target. The Russians may have committed just enough forces to the salient battle, primarily from a quintet of marine brigades and regiments, to keep the Ukrainian 1st Azov Corps busy … and keep it out of Pokrovsk.

Delwin’s theory makes some sense, and could serve as a warning for Ukrainian commanders as the Ukrainian garrisons retreat from Pokrovsk and neighboring Myrnohrad and the campaign for Donetsk Oblast enters a new phase. That warning is simple: expect deception and diversion.

The timing of the fall of the remainder of the Dobropillia salient strangely coincides with the closing of the Pokrovsk pocket.

Russian forces have offered little resistance since the surrender of Kucheriv Yar. It seems this was planned as a counter-fixation axis for Ukrainian… pic.twitter.com/4hEYUIINVM

— Delwin | Military Theorist (@DelwinStrategy) November 6, 2025

The Russian breakthrough toward Dobropillia

When the Russian 132nd Motor Rifle Brigade discovered gaps in the undermanned Ukrainian line north of Pokrovsk and swiftly marched 15 km toward the village of Dobropillia back in early August, they initially aimed to gain fire control over the village—and pummel it with drones and artillery.

And for good reason: one of the two main supply lines into Pokrovsk threaded through Dobropillia. Severing that supply line could’ve accelerated the starvation of the two Ukrainian brigades in the Pokrovsk garrison.

Ukrainian forces countered the Russian salient near Dobropillia, but lost Pokrovsk. Map by Euromaidan Press

But the Ukrainians reacted swiftly, deploying the 1st Azov Corps and several of its well-equipped brigades. The Ukrainians squeezed the 40-square-kilometer salient from both sides, forcing the Russians away from Dobropillia proper and surrounding them in at least two groups, including one in the village of Kucheriv Yar.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian 225th Assault Regiment and 33rd Mechanized Brigade established a strong defense in the village of Shakhove, which anchored the southeastern corner of the salient. The defenders of Shakhove rebuffed repeated Russian mechanized assaults, preventing heavy Russian reinforcements from entering the salient.

Erasing the salient

In late October, the Ukrainian 132nd Reconnaissance Battalion liberated Kucheriv Yar, taking Russian prisoners and eliminating around half of the salient. North of Pokrovsk, the momentum was on the Ukrainians’ side as they eliminated the two-month-old incursion and straightened their line.

Farther south in Pokrovsk and Dobropillia, however, the Russians had the momentum.

Russian regiments failed to captured Dobropillia, but they still managed to put pressure on the supply lines into Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad by pushing drone teams as close as possible to the front line.

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First Russian truck enters Pokrovsk as fog blinds Ukrainian drones

The strategic gamble: trading Dobropillia pressure for Pokrovsk penetration

Russian infiltrators slipped into Pokrovsk from the south, suffering enormous casualties but managing, slowly yet steadily, to accumulate enough forces inside Pokrovsk to destabilize the increasingly outnumbered and outgunned Ukrainian garrison.

When the Ukrainian Tymur Special Unit staged a daring helicopter assault into Pokrovsk on 29 October, it wasn’t a sign the Ukrainians were winning in the city. Quite the opposite.

The Tymur commandos were part of a wider Ukrainian effort to hold a few key fighting positions in northern Pokrovsk—and keep open an escape route for the last survivors of the city’s garrison.

“The battle for the city is coming to an end,” observer Thorkill concluded on Wednesday.

We may never know how much longer the city may have held if the Russians hadn’t occupied the 1st Azov Corps in a long battle around Dobropillia. But it surely helped the Russian strategy in Pokrovsk that the 1st Azov Corps never fought in the city itself.

The Russians’ apparent plan worked. And it may have worked even better if, for example, those mechanized columns had been able to get past Shakhove and bolster the Dobropillia salient. A harder fight over the pocket could’ve drawn in even more Ukrainian units, further weakening defenses in and adjacent to Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.

“Overall, Russian commanders in charge of the operation cannot be overly praised,” Delwin wrote, “as they should have exploited this further.”

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Ukrainian commandos rush into Pokrovsk to hold escape corridor open for fleeing garrison

Key developments in the Dobropillia operation:

Early August 2025: Russian 132nd Motor Rifle Brigade exploits gaps in Ukrainian defenses, advances 15km toward Dobropillia

Mid-August: Ukrainian 1st Azov Corps deployed to counter the salient, squeezes Russian forces from both sides

September 15: Ukrainian forces liberate Pankivka as Russia rushes four infantry brigades and one marine regiment as reinforcements

Late October: Ukrainian 132nd Reconnaissance Battalion liberates Kucheriv Yar, eliminating roughly half of the salient

29 October: Tymur Special Unit helicopter assault in Pokrovsk supports wider Ukrainian retreat rather than counterattack

6 November: Pokrovsk battle nearing conclusion as Russian forces accumulate inside the city

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