Dan Driscoll. Photo: Wikipedia
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US Army Secretary Dan Driscoll, during his visit to Kyiv to hand over the 28-point “peace plan”, warned European diplomats that the missile threat from Russia extends beyond Ukraine, thereby promoting a swift settlement of the war.
Source: The New York Times (NYT), citing European officials
Details: According to the NYT’s sources, European diplomats were in Kyiv last week to hear how US President Donald Trump’s administration would present its “peace plan”.
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The sources said Driscoll had stated that for some years Moscow had been launching missiles towards Ukraine almost as quickly as it could produce them. But he said Russia is now producing enough to build up a growing stockpile of long-range weapons.
European officials noted that the implication was clear: a swift settlement is necessary because of the increasing missile threat, which could deliver a devastating blow to Ukraine and extend beyond its borders.
The NYT wrote that although “Russia is considered unlikely to significantly slow its arms production even if the war ends, a halt to the conflict could remove a potential justification for Moscow to fire missiles or drones at another European country.”
Western officials who took part in the meeting with Driscoll and spoke to the NYT described Russia’s military build-up as alarming and said his warning had struck a chord.
Quote from the NYT: “Traditionally, the United States would have been more likely to criticise Russia for stockpiling weapons than to use its arms manufacturing as a way to sell a peace deal unfavourable to a target of Russian aggression..
The emerging dynamic in Moscow’s missile production has become a backdrop to the Trump administration’s latest efforts to end the war, a push that is continuing this week as Mr. Driscoll prepares to return to Kyiv for more negotiations.
Mr. Driscoll, an ally of Vice President JD Vance who has become an unlikely leader of the American diplomacy, will be discussing a peace proposal that has undergone significant revisions after Ukrainian and European pushback.
But the Trump administration argument that Russia has the upper hand in the war and that Ukraine should accept a settlement soon still stands.”
Details: The US assessment that Moscow is stockpiling missiles, confirmed by Ukrainian military data and analysts’ calculations, indicates a significant shift in Russia’s defence industrial base.
Analysts noted that Russia could use its stockpiles to destroy Ukraine’s already damaged energy infrastructure.
They also pointed out that Russia could threaten missile or drone attacks on other European countries.
According to an analysis of air force data by The Times, Russia attacked Ukraine with 2,061 cruise and ballistic missiles last year and it plans to launch even more this year.
But even with the increasing intensity of its strikes, Russia still has hundreds of additional missiles in storage.
“The launches are not keeping up with production,” said Fabian Hoffmann, a missile weapons expert at the University of Oslo who monitors the war in Ukraine.
Hoffmann said Russia may be replenishing its stockpiles in the event of unforeseen circumstances, such as a military conflict beyond Ukraine or to increase pressure on Kyiv.
Ballistic missiles are already being launched towards Ukraine at a faster rate than Ukraine can deploy the two types of interceptors capable of shooting them down: the US-made Patriot and the French and Italian-made SAMP/T missiles.
Hoffmann said that this trend points to a moment when Ukraine will run out of interceptors to protect Kyiv. “It is of great concern” among those monitoring missile quantities.
Although Driscoll may have cited the growing missile stockpiles as a reason why Ukraine should end the war, Hoffmann warned that Russia’s stockpiles will only grow if the fighting stops.
“If Russia gets away victoriously from this war, they might feel very adventurous in the future and have a massive stockpile of long-range armaments,” he said.
Previously: NBC News reported that Driscoll, when presenting a 28-point “peace plan” to Ukrainian officials during his visit to Kyiv, warned them that Ukrainian troops would suffer an “imminent defeat” against Russian forces and stressed that Kyiv’s negotiating position could weaken if the war continues.
Bloomberg learned that the Russian negotiating team discussed a strategy to present the Russian “peace plan” proposal to Trump’s team so that the Americans could pass these ideas off as their own initiative.
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