Ukraine’s defeat is not inevitable, Europe needs to hurry up before it’s too late, The Economist says. The U.S. demands a Ukraine peace deal before security guarantees, Politico says. Ukraine and the UK sign a licensing agreement to produce Octopus interceptor drones.
Ukraine’s defeat is not inevitable, Europe needs to hurry up before it’s too late, Economist says
If Ukraine and Europe want to control their destiny they must seize the initiative. Unjust peace is not inevitable, The Economist said on Wednesday. The paragraphs below are quoted from the article.
Has Ukraine’s moment of maximum diplomatic danger passed? It looks that way, at least for now. A week after the leak of a 28-point surrender plan, America’s secretary of state, Senate Republicans and European leaders have managed to get a hand on the controls. They will seek to protect Ukraine in talks—though, this being Trumpland, nobody can be sure that they will be able to scotch the plan’s most harmful elements. And even if they succeed, the choices confronting Ukraine and its backers in Europe are only going to get harder.
The original plan pretended to be about peace, but in reality paved the way to the next war by hampering Ukraine’s ability to defend itself rewarding Vladimir Putin’s aggression and setting up sanction relief and investment that would provide Russia with the cash to rearm. Encouragingly, the Americans have relaxed a deadline of Thanksgiving and backed away from a reported threat to deprive Ukraine of American intelligence and weapons if Volodymyr Zelensky does not sign a deal. Mr Zelensky and his European allies have also won some concessions. But much remains to be negotiated, and each step towards an agreement that could offer Ukraine the foundation of a secure future will, for that very reason, provoke fresh objections from Russia. If no plan can be contrived that is acceptable to both sides, even under American pressure, then the fighting will continue.
This newspaper has long argued that for Ukraine success means emerging as a thriving, Western-leaning democracy. Yet each of those things is increasingly in doubt. To thrive, Ukraine needs capital and people to return. But if Russia is likely to attack, again, capital and people will flee. To be Westward-leaning, Ukraine must be bound into European political, economic and defence networks. To be a healthy democracy, Ukraine’s politicians must provide leadership. However, the 28-point plan was leaked as a vast corruption scandal rocked the increasingly centralised and unpopular government of Mr Zelensky.
Yet, despite what some around Mr Trump insist, defeat is not inevitable. Saying it is only hastens it. Mr Putin is paying a terrible price for each metre of Ukrainian soil. The Russian economy can sustain the war, but is under pressure. Money is getting tighter.
The rub is that, in this war of attrition, Ukraine lacks men and weapons—Russia is making more drones and can breach its air defences. Europe, with an economy ten times bigger than Russia’s, could help solve this by a generous, multi-year commitment of money. Its leaders understand the threat, but cannot seem to turn words into actions.
If Europe continues to work on Brussels time, help will come too late to save Ukraine.
U.S. demands Ukraine peace deal before security guarantees, Politico says
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has told European allies that the U.S. wants a peace deal before it agrees to any security guarantees for Ukraine, according to a European diplomat and a person with knowledge of the conversations, Politico said Wednesday. The paragraphs below are quoted from the article.
That condition has underscored American proposals to Kyiv over the past week, the people said. Rubio, on a Tuesday call with European officials, argued President Donald Trump will negotiate long-term guarantees for Ukraine’s safety, they said, that would ensure Kyiv feels secure.
The secretary also broadly mentioned several other issues to address after a deal, which the Europeans took to mean Ukrainian territorial integrity and frozen Russian assets, according to the diplomat.
The State Department refuted the portrayal of Rubio’s comments.
The White House also insisted any final peace plan will have security guarantees. “The Trump administration has repeatedly affirmed, publicly and privately, that any deal must provide full security guarantees and deterrence for Ukraine,” said spokesperson Anna Kelly.
Rubio told his European counterparts on Thursday that the U.S. was not seen as a fair mediator in the talks because it supplies both U.S. military aid to Ukraine and institutes sanctions against Russia, according to two of the European diplomats.
But some European countries worry that the Trump administration will tip the scales toward Russia. “Nothing about human rights, humanitarian law, international law nor principles,” said a four European diplomat in reference to the peace plans. “This is creating a new European ‘security architecture’ full of holes.”
Ukraine, UK sign licensing agreement to produce Octopus interceptor drones
Delegations of the Ukrainian and UK defense ministries signed a licensing agreement for the production of Ukrainian Octopus interceptor drones, Ukraine’s Defense Minister, Denys Shmyhal said in a statement on Thursday.
“It’s a historical precedent and important next step that will allow Ukraine to produce interceptors in the UK that have proved to be efficient in countering Shaheds,” he said.
The parties plan to manufacture up to several thousand interceptors a month. “The drones that will be manufactured will be given to Ukraine to reinforce the defenses of our skies,” Shmyhal added.
The Octopus has entered series production, he announced on November 14. Ukraine passed the technology to three manufacturers, while 11 others are preparing their production lines, Shmyhal explained. The Octopus employs a Ukrainian battle-tested technology of intercepting Shahed drones. It can be operated at night, resist jamming and fly at low altitudes.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi demonstrated the Octopus drone to UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer in London last month.
