2025-12-07T08:12:56+00:00
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Shafaq News
A series of
signals from Washington—capped by President Donald Trump’s remarks portraying
Iraq as “a much different place”—has injected new momentum into Baghdad’s
political arena, sharpening internal rivalries and raising the stakes for caretaker
Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani as he navigates competing pressures at
home and abroad.
The
controversy surrounding Iraq’s brief terrorism listings for Hezbollah and
Yemen’s Houthis further exposed how quickly US messaging now reverberates
inside the Iraqi system, amplifying anxieties among factions aligned with Iran.
Trump’s
comments, in which he linked Iraq’s improved standing with his claims about
neutralizing Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, were interpreted in Baghdad as more
than a rhetorical flourish. He noted that Al-Sudani nominated him for the Nobel
Peace Prize and asserted that Tehran’s leverage over Iraq has
weakened—statements that Iraqi actors read as a sign of Washington’s
willingness to reopen political space for Baghdad.
Al-Sudani
responded by emphasizing his pursuit of “friendships” that serve Iraq’s
interests and stressed that international cooperation, not confrontation, will
shape his foreign policy. The exchange highlighted a central tension: Iraq is
attempting to stabilize its external ties at a moment when American and Iranian
influence are moving in opposite directions.
The
sensitivity of this moment became clear when Issue No. 4848 of the Official
Gazette (Al-Waqai Al-Iraqiya) appeared to list Hezbollah and the Houthis under
Iraq’s counterterrorism framework. Within hours, the Al-Sudani’s government
moved to contain the fallout.
The Central
Bank clarified that the approvals applied only to ISIS- and al-Qaeda-linked
entities. Al-Sudani ordered an urgent investigation. Iraqi factions tied to the
Axis of Resistance—including armed groups aligned with Iran—denounced the
listing as unacceptable.
Legal
experts told Shafaq News that correcting a decision published in the Official
Gazette is procedurally feasible, but the rapid retreat underscored a deeper
point: Washington’s signals have become political leverage inside Iraq, and
every actor is recalibrating around them.
The head of
the Iraqi Ummah Party, former MP Mithal al-Alusi, told Shafaq News that Trump’s
tone aligns with a longstanding US strategy that seeks to curb corruption and
contain Iranian expansion. “It is misleading to treat these messages as
personal endorsements,” he said. “Trump is signaling Iraq’s centrality to the
equation of war and peace.”
Al-Alusi
argued that the terrorism-listing episode may have reflected Baghdad’s attempt
to draw American support and strengthen Al-Sudani’s position despite resistance
from the Coordination Framework, the Iran-aligned coalition that emerged as the
largest force in the 2025 elections and includes Al-Sudani’s Reconstruction and
Development Coalition.
Political
analyst Aed Al-Hilali said the timing of Trump’s remarks gives them strategic
weight, pointing to a broader American move to rebuild its partnership with
Baghdad after years of fluctuating engagement.
“Iraq’s
polarized environment turns any US signal into political leverage,” he warned,
noting that some political forces now use Washington’s tone to question
Al-Sudani’s independence as domestic competition intensifies.
Al-Hilali
argued that the government’s management of issues like the terrorism listings
will become a test of political balance—whether Baghdad can prevent outside
powers from turning administrative decisions into tools of internal pressure.
Political
researcher Nawal Al-Moussawi told Shafaq News that Trump had not originally
placed Iraq high on his agenda, but recent lobbying efforts “unsettled
long-established networks and revived interest in Baghdad.” She pointed to the
growing role of US Envoy Mark Savaya in shaping Washington’s conversations with
Iraq’s Shiite political class, describing him as a conduit through which the
administration’s comfort with Al-Sudani’s performance is increasingly signaled.
Al-Moussawi
noted that American messaging repeatedly references the past three years—the
duration of Al-Sudani’s tenure—a pattern she interprets as clear preference for
continuity. She added that this shift coincides with what she described as a
decline in Iranian influence. “The perception of an American-backed Al-Sudani,
emerging as Tehran’s leverage recedes, is heightening concerns among
traditional power centers,” she said.
US Special
Envoy for Syria Tom Barrack assessed that Iran-aligned groups now exert
significant influence over Iraq’s parliament. In an interview, he described
Al-Sudani as “capable but constrained” by a legislature shaped by factions
linked to the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), many of which also operate
under the banner of the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq,” part of the broader Axis
of Resistance.
This
parliamentary configuration, Barrack suggested, limits Al-Sudani’s ability to
translate any perceived American support into political advantage. Instead, it
sharpens the pressures on him: a US tone that encourages reform and a domestic
arena dominated by forces wary of Washington’s intentions.
The
convergence of renewed American engagement, fluctuating regional dynamics, and
intensifying competition among Iraqi power centers has placed Baghdad at a
delicate crossroads. Trump’s remarks and the turbulence surrounding the
terrorism listings revealed how external signals now carry amplified
consequences inside Iraq, reshaping calculations for both allies and
adversaries of Al-Sudani.
As
Washington signals openness to deeper cooperation and Tehran’s influence faces
new constraints, Iraq’s leaders are entering a period where every gesture—from
diplomatic rhetoric to bureaucratic decisions—risks being interpreted as
alignment with one axis or another.
For
Al-Sudani, the challenge now is managing these cross-pressures without allowing
external actors to become instruments in domestic political battles.
Written and
edited by Shafaq News staff.
