On December 4, 2025, Brazil was officially presented by a report from Austin Rating as 11th largest economy in the world by GDP measured in dollarsRussia has been overtaken by Russia after the ruble appreciated by more than 39% this year, according to projections from the International Monetary Fund. This change removes it from the group of the ten largest global economies, the so-called G10 of GDP in dollars.
The downgrade in the ranking occurs even with an upward revision of the country’s growth projections for 2025 and after a third quarter in which the Gross Domestic Product advanced 0,1% compared to the second quarter, according to data released by IBGE also on December 4th. The decisive factor, according to the IMF and Austin Rating, is not an abrupt worsening of activity, but the behavior of exchange rates, which has repriced the value of GDPs. nationals in dollars.
How exchange rates knocked Brazil out of the G10 of the world economy
In its ranking of the world’s largest economies in dollar terms, the IMF’s calculation combines projections of real GDP growth with currency trends against the dollar.
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In 2025, the strong appreciation of the ruble changed the picture.
According to the Austin Rating report, The Russian currency has appreciated by more than 39% in 2025., supported by capital controls implemented following economic sanctions imposed by the United States and European countries since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
In terms of GDP converted to dollars, this increase allowed Russia to surpass not only Brazil, but also Canada, which held ninth place in 2024.
In practice, this means that when converting Russian GDP to dollars at a stronger exchange rate, the size of the economy measured in US currency grows faster, even if the actual increase in production is not as significant.
It is this exchange rate effect that is pushing Brazil towards the 11th position in the world economy in 2025.even though the Brazilian economy has shown some resilience and appreciation of the real throughout the year.
Brazil is in 11th place and is expected to remain there until the end of the decade.
The IMF’s long-term projections, cited by Austin Rating, indicate that Brazil It is not expected to surpass Russia and Canada again until 2030..
In the scenario outlined today by the multilateral organization, the country remains the 11th largest economy in the world in dollar terms until the end of the decade.
The report highlights that Brazil, Canada, and Italy did not experience a sudden economic “downturn.” between the beginning of 2025 and the present moment.
On the contrary, the text notes an appreciation of the real, improved growth expectations, and a reduction in the gap with Canadian and Italian GDP.
Nevertheless, more intense exchange rate changes in other economies, especially the Russian one, have reorganized the ranking in dollars.
In political and symbolic terms, leaving the group of the world’s ten largest economies comes at a time when the country is trying to strengthen its role in multilateral forums and global negotiations.
Even if the direct economic impact is limited, the loss of this position tends to fuel the internal debate about competitiveness, productivity, and dependence on the commodities cycle.
Real growth: Brazil in the middle of the table among 51 countries.
When the analysis shifts from exchange rates to actual economic growth, the picture changes but remains modest.
In the third quarter of 2025, Brazil’s GDP grew 0,1% compared to the second quarter. This is according to a list compiled by Austin Rating of 51 countries that have already released their data. Brazil ranks 34th in quarterly growth rate..
At the top of the table, the report cites Israel, with an increase of 3,0%, followed by Malaysia and Singapore, both with 2,4%, as well as Denmark, Indonesia and Peru, with results between 2,3% and 1,4%.
On the other hand, Thailand recorded a contraction of 0,6% compared to the previous quarter, ranking as the worst performer among the economies monitored.
This chart reinforces that The country is not in recession, but it is growing slowly compared to other emerging economies..
Combined with the exchange rate effect, this moderate pace helps consolidate Brazil’s position outside the group of the world’s ten largest economies in dollar terms.
The role of Russian exchange rates and capital controls
One of the central points of the report is the explanation for the appreciation of the ruble.
Austin Rating attributes the move to capital controls adopted by Russia following Western sanctions that followed the military offensive in Ukraine in 2022.
By restricting capital outflows, requiring the conversion of export revenues into local currency, and imposing barriers to certain financial transactions, the Russian government artificially sustained the demand for the ruble.
According to the IMF’s accounting, this stronger exchange rate inflates Russia’s share of the world economy in dollar terms., even amidst a turbulent geopolitical environment and internal challenges.
Brazil, on the other hand, saw the real appreciate in 2025, but at a lower rate.
Austin Rating itself points out that the gap with Canada and Italy has narrowed, and that growth projections for Brazilian GDP were even revised upwards by the IMF in October.
In addition, The combined effect of strict controls in Russia and the new parity of the ruble was enough to reorder the global ranking.
What does the downgrade in the ranking signal for Brazil?
From a technical standpoint, being ranked 10th or 11th in the world economy, measured by GDP in dollars, does not, by itself, alter the flow of trade or the productive structure. But the movement carries important signals:
This highlights Brazil’s sensitivity to exchange rate fluctuations in international comparison.since a large part of the GDP in dollars depends on the exchange rate between the Brazilian real and the US dollar.
This reignites the discussion about how much the country depends on favorable external commodity cycles to rise in the rankings.
It exposes the need for stronger sustained growth to offset currency exchange movements in other jurisdictions.
This puts additional pressure on the agenda of structural reforms, productivity, investment, and the business environment—issues that influence medium- and long-term growth.
Experts consulted by Austin Rating note that, even without an acute crisis, The combination of only moderate growth and a relatively unstable exchange rate limits Brazil’s potential to gain significant weight in the global economy.opening up space for other emerging economies to reorganize the top positions in the ranking when There are local shocks in their currencies..
Given this scenario, with Brazil outside the top ten largest economies in the world in dollar terms until at least 2030, do you think the main focus for regaining ground should be a more competitive exchange rate, accelerating economic growth, or profound structural reforms to increase productivity?
