“We are not at war, but we are no longer at peace either,” is how German Chancellor Friedrich Merz from the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party summarized the mood in Germany back in late September.
Ever since Russia’s attack on Ukraine in February 2022, there has been talk of hybrid warfare among German security and political experts. Germany is being hit hard by a mix of military and intelligence operations, often accompanied by misleading propaganda. Classic methods include sabotage, espionage and disinformation to fuel uncertainty among the general population.
What is wrong with Germany’s early warning system?
The core task of the German domestic intelligence services, or Bundesamt für Verfassungsschutz (BfV), is to identify threats early enough to prevent attacks. Given the current level of threats, BfV Director General Sinan Selen said his agency needs more powers.
More powers are urgently needed, said Sinan Selen, director general of Germany’s domestic intelligence serviceImage: Bernd von Jutrczenka/dpa/picture alliance
“We have forms of communication that we are no longer able to decrypt in parts. We have actors who operate under pseudonyms,” Selen said at the annual Constitution Protection Symposium in Berlin. “As an intelligence service, I must be able to penetrate these areas.”
Selen is counting on changes to security laws to achieve this goal. German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt has already announced reforms, while support has also been voiced from the chancellor’s office, where Philipp Wolff coordinates the country’s three central intelligence agencies: the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, the Federal Intelligence Service and the Military Counter-Intelligence Service.
Wolff insists that increased online surveillance and the storage of IP addresses are necessary. He also wants security agencies to be able to exchange personal data more easily.
However, whether this will be possible remains uncertain. Opposition parties and civil society organizations have almost always challenged stricter security laws in Germany’s Federal Constitutional Court — and often successfully.
France and the Netherlands as role models?
But Selen remains confident. Other European Union countries like France and the Netherlands are significantly further ahead, he said at the Berlin conference, referring to two countries with fewer legal restrictions on the surveillance of suspects and less stringent data protection laws.
Following President Donald Trump’s recent National Security Strategy, it’s hard to tell how the BfV’s future intelligence links with the US will develop. However, Selen signaled a business-as-usual approach. “I would not draw the conclusion from such a strategy that we are breaking with America,” he said. “I also do not believe that our partners are breaking with us.”
The use of controversial US software Palantir has stirred debate, also in GermanyImage: NurPhoto/IMAGO
At the same time, he emphasized the importance of continuously reviewing and developing alliances. In his view, Europe must become more independent from the US.
Selen is also considering developing the domestic intelligence services’ own IT programs for monitoring and analyzing digital communications.
Many countries use the controversial US software Palantir for this purpose, but German security authorities have been debating its use for some time. Selen voiced support for a national alternative. “We have industries, we have companies that can do this,” he said, adding that perhaps they need more support.
Critical infrastructure at risk
For his part, intelligence coordinator Wolff said the BfV and the other German security agencies are already effective. “The Russians know that too; they already take us seriously,” he said, adding that the national debate on how to tackle hybrid threats is being closely followed in Moscow.
Wolff’s chief concern remains how to deal with a country that does not abide by any rules. Hybrid threats are playing an increasingly important role in this context, he said, adding that at the symposium had not outlined a definitive answer to this form of attempted influence and destabilization.
Carlo Masala, a military specialist at the Bundeswehr University in Munich, described Russia’s strategy toward the NATO member states as “increasingly bold.”
Is Germany prepared to answer drone incursions?
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Viewed from a Russian perspective, Germany, in particular, was a target, he said. “We are the hub,” Masala said, referring to Germany’s central location in Europe and its strategic importance within NATO.
Experts such as Masala suspect Russia is behind a rising number of acts of sabotage on railways, airports, and water and electricity supplies. However, critical infrastructure can also be paralyzed indirectly, Masala warned at the symposium. “There is a substation in Austria, and if it is knocked out, large parts of Germany will lose power,” he explained.
In early October, drones flying near Munich Airport in Bavaria also made headlines when they disrupted operations for an extended period of time. According to Masala, the objective was to cause fear and panic among the public. However, he suggested another possible motive was to demonstrate that the Bavarian state government is unable to take action against such attacks. The intelligence service can warn of such scenarios, he said, “but it cannot prevent them.”
This article was originally written in German.
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