NAIROBI, Kenya Dec 23 – The death of veteran opposition leader Raila Odinga has dramatically altered the country’s political landscape, complicating President William Ruto’s path to re-election in 2027, a new opinion poll suggests.
According to a survey by TIFA Research conducted in mid-November, 41 per cent of Kenyans believe Odinga’s absence makes it harder for President Ruto to secure a second term.
Only 30 per cent think the President’s re-election bid has become easier following the opposition icon’s passing.
The findings challenge long-held assumptions that Odinga’s exit from the political scene would automatically benefit the ruling Kenya Kwanza coalition.
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Traditional Strongholds
Perhaps most striking is the level of skepticism within regions traditionally aligned with President Ruto. In Mt Kenya, 56 per cent of respondents said the President’s re-election prospects have worsened, while 52 per cent in the South Rift (Nakuru, Kericho, Narok, Bomet and Nandi) shared the same view.
Even in Nyanza long regarded as Odinga’s political base 40 per cent believe Ruto now faces a tougher contest, compared with 25 per cent who think his path has eased.
“Overall, a plurality of Kenyans believe that Raila’s passing will make it more difficult for President Ruto to be re-elected in 2027,” the report states.
The opinion poll noted that current perceptions are partly driven by wishful thinking across rival political camps.
Ethnic Political Control
The poll points to a deeper structural shift in politics,the weakening of ethnic kingpin influence. Among Luo respondents, the proportion who say their community has a specific political leader to look up to has dropped sharply from 63 per cent before Odinga’s death to 47 per cent today.
The 16-point decline suggests that voters in former opposition strongholds may be entering a period of greater political autonomy.
In Odinga’s absence, the report observes, ODM leaders and supporters are likely to feel freer to make up their own minds about which party, coalition or presidential candidate to support.
ODM at a Crossroads
While support for the Broad-Based Government (BBG) arrangement has doubled to 44 per cent since May, the alliance remains polarising. Those in favour cite national unity and stability (72 per cent), while critics point to corruption (35 per cent) and the erosion of democratic checks (31 per cent).
Within the Orange Democratic Movement itself, divisions are stark. Half of all Kenyans expect ODM to return to the Opposition by 2027. Only 19 per cent of ODM supporters want the party to back President Ruto for a second term, while a plurality of the party’s base (34 per cent )prefers ODM to field its own presidential candidate.
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Politics of Incentives
The survey also sheds light on the practical realities of political mobilisation. About 26 per cent of Kenyans say they have attended a political rally since the last election, and nearly half of them (49 per cent )admit receiving cash or gifts as a thank-youfor turning up.
The practice is most prevalent in Lower Eastern and Nyanza, where 66 per cent and 65 per cent of rally-goers respectively reported receiving incentives. For most recipients, the amounts ranged between Sh101 and Sh500.
The poll suggests President Ruto’s greatest challenge may lie not in facing a single dominant rival, but in navigating an increasingly fragmented and unpredictable electorate one less bound by the old rules of ethnic and personality-driven politics.
