2025-12-27T07:10:37+00:00
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Shafaq News – Baghdad
With just days remaining before the first session of the new Iraqi parliament,
the contest over the speakership has moved beyond a routine power-sharing
negotiation and into a critical test of the post-election political order. The
ability—or failure—of political forces within the National
Political Council to settle the position before the
chamber convenes on December 29 is now widely seen as an early indicator of
whether the next phase of governance will proceed smoothly or slide into
procedural strain.
Under Iraq’s constitutional sequence, the election of the speaker and
two deputies opens the door to the remaining milestones: choosing a president
and tasking a prime minister-designate with forming a government. Despite
repeated warnings from the judiciary that the first session cannot be postponed
or extended, political disputes—most notably within the Sunni camp—have left
the speakership unresolved, placing the incoming parliament under immediate
pressure.
The challenge is sharpened by new parliamentary arithmetic. Sunni
representation has risen to about 77 out of 329 seats, strengthening the
community’s numerical weight but also exposing internal fragmentation. Six
figures initially emerged as contenders, including former speaker Mohammed
al-Halbousi, Al-Azm leader Muthanna al-Samarrai, former Education Minister
Mohammed Tamim, Defense Minister Thabet al-Abbasi, MP Salem al-Issawi, and MP
Mahmoud al-Qaisi. In practice, however, the race has narrowed to
al-Halbousi—who leads the largest Sunni bloc with 27 seats—and al-Samarrai,
whose alliance controls 15.
At the center of the effort to bridge these divisions is the National
Political Council, which brings together Sunni forces that won seats in the
election. MP Faisal al-Issawi of the Al-Tafawoq Coalition revealed to Shafaq
News that the council is set to hold its final meeting on Saturday before the
parliamentary session, aiming to agree on a single candidate. “If consensus
proves impossible, the council may allow two nominees to advance to the floor,
leaving parliament itself to decide through a vote.”
That scenario carries significant risks. Electing a speaker requires an
absolute majority—at least 165 votes—an increasingly difficult threshold in a
fragmented chamber. Failure to reach it could delay proceedings or force
last-minute compromises that reshape committee leaderships and future
ministerial allocations, extending the impact of the speakership battle well
beyond the Sunni bloc.
Political analysts broadly converge on one assessment: prior political
agreement is the decisive variable. Haider al-Barzanji noted that the session’s
viability depends directly on settling the parliamentary leadership in advance.
One deputy speakership, he pointed out, has already been resolved in favor of
Shakhawan Abdullah of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, while expectations are
that the first deputy speaker will be finalized shortly. The unresolved issue
remains the speaker’s post itself. “If Sunni forces coalesce, the session is
likely to proceed normally; if not, a split vote could divide other blocs,
including the Shiite Coordination Framework, between rival candidates.”
While al-Barzanji believed the signs lean toward a resolution rather
than a breakdown, he cautioned that disagreement over names could still
undermine quorum, even though the constitution requires the chamber to convene
at least to administer the oath and begin formal procedures.
Yassin Aziz, another political analyst, framed the stakes more bluntly, arguing
that entering the first session without a unified Sunni candidate would force
an open contest that risks “embarrassing Sunni leaders and exposing already
delicate relationships between Sunni parties and the Coordination Framework.”
In this reading, the damage would not stem from who wins, but from how the
decision is reached and the political costs of a visibly fractured process.
Read more: Six candidates chase Iraq’s speakership
From within the Al-Azm alliance, the dispute is described less as a
personal rivalry and more as a clash over decision-making norms. Alliance
leader Muzaffar al-Karkhi told Shafaq News that the National Political Council
agreed that key decisions should be made by full consensus, including the
speakership. Allowing two candidates to proceed, he argued, was intended to
avoid paralysis and prevent the first session from collapsing into procedural
deadlock.
Al-Karkhi criticized “al-Halbousi’s earlier insistence on running as the
sole nominee,” while acknowledging that all Sunni MPs have the right to compete
under established political custom.
Legal experts warn that room for maneuver is limited. Constitutional
specialist Abbas al-Uqabi explained to Shafaq News that the first session must
convene on December 29 under the chairmanship of the oldest member, which is
now Amer Hussein Jassim Ali Al-Fayez of Tasmeem Alliance, beginning with the
oath and followed immediately by nominations for speaker and deputies, as
stipulated in Article 55 of the constitution.
While some view these timelines as organizational, al-Uqabi cautioned
that ignoring them would amount to a serious constitutional breach, potentially
leaving the country under a caretaker government until the parliamentary
leadership, presidency, and premiership are resolved.
Since 2003, Iraq’s informal power-sharing arrangement has assigned the
premiership to Shiite forces, the presidency to the Kurds, and the speakership
to the Sunni component. The current impasse highlights how this system depends
not only on sectarian balance but on cohesion within each bloc. Whether Sunni
parties can manage competition without derailing the parliamentary process will
signal the resilience of the post-election framework.
In that sense, the speakership vote has become an early stress test of
whether the new parliament can absorb rivalry and negotiate compromise without
tipping into institutional strain—setting the tone for the political phase that
follows.
Written and edited by Shafaq News staff.
