Gareth LewisWales political editor
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Reform had a tough end to 2025 in Wales – but there’s expectation the party will hit the ground running in the new year
If you thought 2025 was a busy year for Welsh politics, buckle up for a frenetic 2026.
Wales goes to the polls on 7 May and campaigning is likely to crank up as we enter the new year.
This Senedd election will make history, with big changes for Wales’ parliament and Labour’s 26-year reign in power under threat from Plaid Cymru and Reform.
With no party likely to win a majority we could be looking at one party attempting to run a minority government – or doing a deal with someone else.
Here’s a look at where each of the parties are at the start of a potentially seismic year.
Labour
Labour in Wales has never been in this position before.
Does it have the vision to win back voters and the energy for “one hell of a fight”, as the first minister herself has put it?
Eluned Morgan certainly got people talking after her traditional end of year interview, by claiming she was part of a “new generation” of Labour politicians.
In practice, “new generation” is likely to mean that as well as Morgan herself, new candidates like Cardiff council leader Huw Thomas, general secretary of the Wales TUC Shavanah Taj, and Torfaen council leader Anthony Hunt will be prominent faces in the campaign.
But winning over voters will not be easy.
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There have been public and private disagreements between Eluned Morgan’s Welsh Labour and the UK Labour government led by Sir Keir Starmer
There might be new candidates and perhaps fresh energy, but Labour’s record on areas like the NHS and education is also on the line, and the party’s opponents will try to hammer home where they have gone wrong.
One of Labour’s other challenges will be to present a united front.
Despite agreement on things such as scrapping the two-child benefit cap and a new nuclear power station at Wylfa, 2025 also featured plenty of public and private disagreement between Welsh and UK Labour.
One insider insists that the “Labour family” will “pull together” for the election and that the “relationship is strong enough to always have disagreements”.
That will take a big effort.
Plaid Cymru
Between Plaid’s victory in the Caerphilly by-election and with polls suggesting it could be the biggest party next May, it ends 2025 in a strong position.
There is a growing sense from some within the party – as well as outside it – that it is increasingly hard to conceive of a scenario in which Rhun ap Iorwerth does not become Wales’ first non-Labour first minister.
But could Plaid become complacent?
“Not at all,” says the party’s finance spokesperson, Heledd Fychan.
“We’re not locked in a cupboard preparing for government. We are out there campaigning on doorsteps and on social media.”
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Plaid leader Rhun ap Iorwerth (centre) is hoping to make history by becoming the first non-Labour first minister of Wales
Policies on the NHS, the economy and childcare have already been announced and there will be more to come – but perhaps nothing to take voters by surprise.
Plaid doesn’t have the financial strength that some of its rivals have, which gives other parties potentially greater reach on the ground and online.
There is a risk its voice, especially in UK media and on social media, could be drowned out.
But there are no complaints from Plaid that Reform keeps mentioning a two-horse race between the parties.
That publicity is free.
Reform
“This is our big opportunity,” says a Reform UK Wales spokesperson, after a year in which the party has vied with Plaid for top spot in opinion polls in Wales.
It missed out on its big target at the Caerphilly by-election which, although a chastening experience, gave it a vote share to build on.
Leader Nigel Farage is seen by the party as its greatest asset and is likely to feature heavily in the upcoming Welsh campaign.
But there are still many unknowns – no Welsh leader, no specific set of Welsh policies, and no list of candidates.
How will Reform cope with increased scrutiny when it begins to unveil plans?
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Laura Anne Jones and Nigel Farage have seen strong support for Reform in Wales throughout 2025
The party hasn’t had an easy end to 2025.
Former Welsh leader Nathan Gill is in prison for accepting Russian bribes and the party’s only current MS was suspended earlier this year from the Senedd for using a racial slur.
But there is an expectation Reform will hit the ground running in the new year.
Look out for some eye-catching pledges – the party’s 2021 Senedd manifesto promised to “halve” Wales’ 22 local councils.
Council reform was even hinted at by defeated Caerphilly candidate Llyr Powell in a post-election Walescast debate on BBC Wales.
Conservatives
The Conservatives in Wales face the same problem as their colleagues across the UK – supporters appear to be deserting them for Reform.
In Wales their problems are compounded by the fact that they often struggle to turn out their vote for a Senedd election anyway.
They will need a huge turnaround to prevent a drop from main opposition to potentially fourth biggest party – and polling suggests they face a tough election.
Privately there is acknowledgement it is hoping to win six to 10 of the 96 seats – for comparison, it currently holds 14 out of 60.
Tory sources say they are trying to persuade some of their natural voters it has a chance of succeeding because of the new proportional representation system.
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The Conservative’s leader in the Senedd Darren Millar will be hoping UK leader Kemi Badenoch’s presence can boost the party’s Welsh election hopes in 2026
The party is both open to a deal with Reform to form a government – although the two parties combined still might not have a majority – and campaigning hard against it.
One Tory source wonders whether Reform will “start to fall apart”.
“Will they have the calibre of people to function properly and effectively in the parliament?
“We have got to tell voters that a vote for Reform is a vote for the unknown.”
The Tories will also hope to draw a contrast between what they say are sensible and costed plans – such as a 1p cut to income tax and opposition to the scrapping of the two-child benefit cap – with what they claim is the “incoherence” of Reform.
Expect to see Kemi Badenoch on the campaign trail – the UK party leader is on firmer ground in recent months after a shaky start, and is seen as an electoral asset.
Liberal Democrats and Greens
Under the Senedd’s new system, tactical voting is almost a thing of the past – as every vote should count with parties rewarded for their percentage share of the vote.
In theory this also makes it more difficult for parties to target specific areas.
The exception to this rule might well be these two parties.
One recent poll suggested they could win three and four seats respectively in parts of Cardiff, Swansea and mid Wales.
Any seat would be a first for the Greens; three would be an improvement on the Lib Dems’ current one.
It might not sound like a lot, but they could still have influence depending on how the final seat tally looks.
Could either party end up with the decisive numbers in a left-leaning block to stop a Reform/Conservative run government?
