(Bloomberg) —
China placed quotas on beef imports as it seeks to protect domestic farmers and producers, dealing a blow to Brazil and other major shippers including Australia and Argentina.
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Shipments exceeding the limits will be subject to a 55% duty, after authorities determined that rising imports had harmed China’s own industry. The series of quotas will be in effect from Jan. 1, the Ministry of Commerce said on Wednesday.
The trade measures, which follow an investigation launched in December 2024, are likely to restrict flows of beef into the world’s top importer, and could hurt producers and cattle farmers elsewhere. China brought in a total of 2.6 million tons of beef through November this year, according to customs data.
The move may be good news for consumers outside of China, however, boosting supplies and potentially easing prices that have surged to record highs amid strong demand and limited supply.
The US, the world’s largest market for the red meat, has struggled to match shrinking herds with resilient consumption. President Donald Trump has moved to cut tariffs on beef, along with other pricey grocery items, to appease voters increasingly disgruntled over high living costs.
Shares of major beef producers were slightly lower in thin holiday trading in New York on Wednesday. JBS NV, the world’s largest meat company, fell as much as 0.9%, while Tyson Foods Inc. slipped as much as 0.6%.
The total quotas for all imports are set to rise incrementally each year, from 2.69 million tons in 2026 to 2.74 million tons in 2027 and 2.8 million tons in 2028.
Brazil is likely to be one of the hardest hit countries, as China accounts for nearly half of its total beef exports.
The South American nation could lose up to $3 billion in revenue in 2026 as a result of the new policy, the country’s Association of Refrigerated Meat Packers said. It could also discourage ranchers from expanding production, just as they had been about to start the years-long process of rebuilding herds.
Brazil has been allocated just over 1 million tons a year, less than the 1.7 million tons the country shipped in 2025, according to the Brazilian Association of Meat Exporting Industries and the Brazilian Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock.
“Adjustments will be required throughout the entire chain, from production to exports, in order to avoid broader impacts,” the industry groups said.
Brazil Agriculture Minister Carlos Favaro said the country is entering discussions with China starting in January to discuss what counts toward the quota, and to see if countries that don’t fully use their quotas can transfer those quantities to Brazil.
Suppliers may try to front-load shipments earlier in the year to avoid reaching the new thresholds, according to Altin Kalo, the chief economist at Steiner Consulting Group. “It will also provide buyers in other countries more leverage; no longer can suppliers rely on China to absorb ever increasing supplies,” he said.
The impact on the US will less severe, at least for now. Quotas for the US are set at 164,000 tons in 2026, rising to 168,000 tons in 2027 and 171,000 tons in 2028. That’s well above current trade flows as shipments have constricted after China earlier this year did not renew export registrations for US beef plants.
The market is hard to replace, while the absence of Chinese buyers reduces competition and lowers the value of sales to other Asian markets, said Joe Schuele, the US Meat Export Federation’s senior vice president of communications.
“Our main priority is to get the market fully reopened,” Schuele said. “Once we are back into the market, the safeguard is certainly a concern, but we don’t see an immediate impact on export volumes.”
The Australian Meat Industry Council, meanwhile, said it was “extremely disappointed” and warned the measures could slash its beef exports to China by about a third from recent levels, hitting trade worth more than A$1 billion ($668 million).
“This decision will have a severe impact on trade flows to China over the duration of the measures’ enforcement,” said AMIC Chief Executive Officer Tim Ryan. “Imports of Australian beef are not a cause of damage to the domestic beef industry in China.”
China’s beef imports have surged in recent years, along with rising incomes, but domestic production has also climbed as the government urged farmers to raise more cattle at home. Plentiful supply is now straining the local industry as consumers cut back, leaving freezers full. Wholesale beef prices fell to the lowest since 2019 earlier this year.
The measures could also broadly protect the Chinese pork industry, which has declined as consumers “are eating too much foreign beef and not enough domestic pork,” said Brian Earnest, the lead animal protein economist at CoBank ACB.
–With assistance from Carolina Pulice and Michael Hirtzer.
(Updates with industry group comments in ninth and 15th paragraphs, and economist comment in last paragraph.)
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