The American deadline to Lebanon’s government – requiring Hezbollah’s full disarmament by year’s end – expires Wednesday night, with Israel’s security establishment now waiting for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s final go-ahead after his meeting this week with US President Donald Trump.
Fresh IDF figures show Hezbollah has breached the ceasefire 2,024 times, while the Lebanese Armed Forces took enforcement action in just 593 instances. Israel filed 863 violation complaints with Lebanon’s military, which claimed to address 593 of them. The IDF moved to stop roughly 90 breaches, leaving 145 targets classified as “open” strikes that Lebanon’s army never enforced.
US President Donald Trump (R) and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shake hands as they arrive to speak to journalists during a joint press conference at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on December 29, 2025 (Jim WATSON / AFP)
Defense sources indicated Wednesday that Lebanese officials are falsely portraying progress in neutralizing Hezbollah. Beirut maintains that 90% to 95% of territory below the Litani (river in southern Lebanon) has been cleared of the terrorist group, but Israeli intelligence paints a starkly different picture. Lebanon’s army won’t even enter private property and villages throughout the south – proof that Hezbollah’s presence remains extensive, Israeli officials note, adding that intelligence confirms the organization is actively working to restore its capabilities south of the Litani. For all Beirut’s optimistic rhetoric, Lebanon’s military remains too feeble and insufficiently committed to truly dismantle Hezbollah.
Israel has launched approximately 390 interdiction strikes in Lebanon since the truce began. Eliminated figures include Lebanese nationals functioning as liaisons between southern villages and Hezbollah, which continues rebuilding its network within civilian areas south of the Litani. Current intelligence estimates place several hundred to a few thousand Hezbollah operatives in the region, though not positioned directly along Israel’s border. Any suspected terrorist activity near the contact line draws immediate fire, IDF officials confirm, citing Tuesday night’s strike on a structure believed used by Hezbollah. Defense sources add that the group maintains infrastructure south of the Litani – some installations predating the war that Israeli forces only partially destroyed.
Locals hold Hezbollah flags as they gather in Burj al-Muluk, near the southern Lebanese village of Kfar Kila on January 26, 2025 (Reuters / Karamallah Daher)
Diplomatic pressure on Lebanon’s government has intensified recently, aimed at forcing Hezbollah’s dismantlement and compliance with the ultimatum. Next week should bring another coordination session in Naqoura (UN base on Israel-Lebanon border), attended by diplomatic representatives, mirroring two previous gatherings.
Yet the IDF has spent months preparing for several days of intensive combat in Lebanon, planning strikes against targets typically off-limits to routine operations. Israeli Air Force jets will likely hit not just southern Lebanon but emphasize Hezbollah positions deep in Beirut, where strikes have been rare since the ceasefire due to dense civilian populations. Should political authorization arrive, military planners expect the campaign to span just days, though forces are bracing for potential extensions depending on Hezbollah’s reaction, if any materializes. Regardless, Israel remains resolved to block Hezbollah’s force restoration.
