WASHINGTON DC – While Washington sleeps off the holidays and Europe eases back into work, the Ukraine peace process is quietly roaring into high gear.
A high-stakes diplomatic sprint is set to kick off as early as this Saturday, according to multiple officials familiar with the planning.
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It marks the most coordinated effort in months to move the needle from abstract slogans to the “nuts and bolts” of a durable ceasefire.
US officials are set to join this weekend’s sessions via secure video link, with a potential in-person follow-up in Europe next week.
On the ground in Kyiv, European and Ukrainian officials will huddle on January 3 in a hybrid format that diplomats say reflects the “hair-on-fire” urgency of the current front lines.
New Year’s eve rollout
Behind the scenes, coordination didn’t pause for the ball drop.
On December 31, US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and President Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner held a marathon conference call with national security heavyweights from London, Paris, and Berlin. Ukraine’s top negotiator, Rustem Umerov, was also on the line.
The goal? Moving past the “if” and into the “how.”
According to Witkoff, the focus has shifted to “practical” next steps: security guarantees with teeth, deconfliction mechanisms to prevent a “frozen conflict” from reheating, and a “prosperity package” designed to entice private capital back to Kyiv.
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The new year will be about adjusting to the realities of US retrenchment.
“There’s less theory and more sequencing now,” one US official told Kyiv Post on Thursday, adding, “This weekend and next week are about stress-testing whether the pieces that look good politically can actually work on the ground.”
Security advisers meet in Kyiv
That stress test begins January 3, when national security advisers from over 10 countries, plus the “Euro-crats” from the European Commission and NATO, descend on Kyiv. US officials are expected to participate virtually.
Umerov confirmed that Kyiv has already aligned positions with American and European partners and has scheduled additional meetings throughout January.
A senior European official involved in the preparations said expectations are intentionally restrained.
“No one expects a breakthrough on Saturday,” the official said, adding, “What matters is locking in a shared understanding of security guarantees and making sure there are no surprises heading into the military and leaders’ meetings.”
Military talks follow as guarantees take shape
Momentum continues January 5, when the “Brass” take over. Military chiefs of staff will meet to map out the “triple-threat” security guarantees across air, land, and sea.
This is the technical bottleneck: everyone agrees Ukraine needs protection, but no one has settled on who pulls the trigger if a ceasefire is breached.
President Volodymyr Zelensky used his New Year’s Day address to remind his partners that diplomacy isn’t a substitute for shells.
European officials say that dual-track message – diplomacy paired with deterrence – will define next week’s discussions.
“The message from Kyiv is very clear: peace talks don’t replace security assistance,” said a second European diplomat, adding, “If anything, the credibility of the talks depends on it.”
By January 6, European leaders and members of the so-called “Coalition of the Willing” are expected to meet in Paris at the political level, aiming to reinforce confidence in both the security guarantees and the broader peace framework.
While the West talks shop, Turkey is eyeing playing the middleman again. Umerov was in Ankara on Thursday to grease the wheels for prisoner exchanges – the “low-hanging fruit” that diplomats hope can build enough trust to keep the larger process from stalling.
Washington watches – and calibrates
Washington’s decision to participate remotely this weekend – following with potentially in person next week – is a calculated bit of “leading from behind.”
It allows European partners to take the public heat for the compromises being discussed, while keeping American fingerprints firmly on the framework.
As one US official put it: “This is Europe’s neighborhood, but it’s still America’s peace process. The goal for next week isn’t headlines – it’s making sure everyone is reading from the same script,” the official told Kyiv Post.
After months of hardened public red lines, officials caution that January’s meetings are not designed to produce dramatic announcements.
Instead, they are meant to narrow gaps, build confidence, and ensure that any future agreement rests on enforceable security guarantees rather than political promises.
As one European diplomat put it, the coming days may matter most precisely because they are unfolding quietly.
“If this works,” the diplomat said, “it won’t feel dramatic at first – and that’s exactly the point.”
