Any analysis of Ukraine’s current situation and prospects requires a realistic assessment of best- and worst-case scenarios. Without wanting to spread pessimism or undue optimism, here’s a brief attempt to weigh up some of the difficulties Ukraine will continue to grapple with before Russia’s war against it is ended.
So, where are we at?
JOIN US ON TELEGRAM
Follow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official.
By the end of 2025, Ukrainians had to deal with power outages that lasted up to 16 hours every day because of constant Russian drone and missile attacks. People had to plan their lives around blackouts, figuring out when they could cook, work, or keep warm.
This struggle – of light over darkness – has become a symbol of what Ukraine is facing in 2026. With the war dragging on into its fifth year, the big question is not just if Ukraine can hold the front lines, but if it can keep the country running while under constant attack.
The energy war: A picture of the bigger fight
The attacks on Ukraine’s power plants show how war has changed. Russia has been working to destroy Ukraine’s society piece by piece and has already ruined about 60% of Ukraine’s ability to produce gas. From October to December 2025, they bombed civilian areas harder than they had since the start of the war, trying to break the people’s spirit.
But energy workers keep fixing things while more drones fly overhead. Hospitals use backup generators. Businesses work around the blackout schedules. Families charge their devices when they can.
Other Topics of Interest
In the Time Russia Has Been Mired in Ukraine, the Soviets Already Defeated Nazi Germany
If you look at the casualty rates, it was probably about two or even three times safer to have been a soldier in the WWII Red Army that conquered Europe than to serve right now in Ukraine for Russia.
This toughness is costing a lot. Resources have to be constantly found while the mental stress keeps building up each month.
The economic strain
It’s no secret that to stay afloat during wartime, Ukraine relies on massive help from other countries and international financial institutions.
This critical external support is not endless or without strings attached. People are getting tired of donating, and the Trump administration’s hesitation has made things worse.
Businesses never know if they will have power. It’s hard to collect taxes.
Inflation stood at around 9.3% last November. The government is trying to do the impossible: keep spending on defense while still taking care of retired people, those who have lost their homes, and everyone else who has sacrificed so much.
Keeping things together
The constant corruption scandals show how tense things are inside Ukraine. When there is not much to go around, and everyone is sacrificing, it makes people angry when they think the rich are getting richer while soldiers are dying.
Ukraine has to keep its democratic system going even while it is at war. President Volodymyr Zelensky’s government has done better than expected at protecting democracy, but it is getting harder and harder.
The government has launched investigations and charged some top officials, but fighting corruption remains difficult. Agencies that fight corruption face resistance from those in power, even as they pursue cases against powerful individuals.
Keeping leaders responsible during wartime – when the easy thing to do is put off dealing with problems – shows whether Ukraine can fight both corruption and Russia at the same time.
There’s also the pressure on Ukraine from Moscow and Washington to hold elections during wartime. It is a potentially destabilizing factor, as it, among other things, detracts from the need for political unity and encourages division.
Losing people
And all the while, Ukraine keeps losing people. Millions have sought refuge abroad or been internally displaced.
The military has drafted hundreds of thousands of people, leaving fewer workers. Meanwhile, 3.6 million people have been forced to move within the country and 5.7 million have left the country altogether. People keep getting hurt or killed in the war. More and more men have tried to avoid being drafted by paying bribes, running away, or disappearing into the underground economy.
All of these things are draining the country’s limited workforce. Every skilled worker who leaves, every young man who dies, every engineer who avoids being drafted means less productivity, less tax money, and a reduced ability to rebuild.
The effects of this will be felt for years. Ukraine is trying to maintain a large army, keep important industries running, provide public services, and save enough people to rebuild after the war – all with a population that was already shrinking before the war started.
Capacitating the defense industry
Ukraine’s defense industry is growing quickly. By 2026, about 75% of purchased weapons will come from Ukrainian companies, and over half of the weapons being used at the front are made in Ukraine.
For a country that started the war depending on old Soviet weapons and donations from other countries, this change is amazing.
Ukrainian companies have been inventive, making drones, artillery, and electronic warfare equipment that works against Russian forces. Making weapons at home gives Ukraine more control and keeps defense money in the country.
But Ukraine is reaching its limit. A country with a significantly depleted workforce can only produce so much while also having a large military and keeping society running.
Making things at home requires materials – raw materials, parts, energy – that are hard to get because of the war. A missile that hits a power plant does not just cause blackouts; it also shuts down factories that make artillery shells.
External support
Ukraine’s problems at home cannot be separated from what is happening around the world.
The Trump administration’s reduced support has created both problems with supplies and problems with morale. While European countries have tried to help, European politics are unstable. Populist movements are getting stronger, and Ukraine fatigue is becoming an issue in elections.
Most worrying is that more people are pushing for peace talks that would involve giving up territory, which most Ukrainians reject. The difference between what other countries think is acceptable and what Ukrainians will accept is growing, which is a threat to the alliance that is keeping Ukraine’s resistance going.
The test ahead
The numbers show suffering that is almost too big to understand.
Keeping people’s spirits up requires more than just patriotic speeches. They need to see real evidence that their sacrifices are making a difference. As the war goes on into 2026, it is getting harder to keep that spirit alive.
The initial unity from 2022 has turned into exhaustion mixed with stoic determination, a more serious calculation of how long they can last.
So, as energy workers risk their lives to keep the lights on, as government officials try to balance impossible budgets, and especially as soldiers hold their ground along hundreds of miles of front lines, Ukrainians face a completely different test than they did in 2022.
They have shown their ability to survive the initial shock of the invasion. Now the question is if they can maintain the complex systems of a working country under constant attack in many different ways.
The danger in 2026 is not necessarily a sudden military collapse but a slow weakening – a gradual breakdown of the government’s ability to function, the economy’s strength, and the bonds that hold society together, making it impossible to keep resisting.
The darkness threatening Ukraine might not come from a Russian military victory but from the weight of the problems inside the country, which even the most determined nation cannot handle forever.
Can Ukraine’s government keep things running under this constant pressure? Will other countries provide enough support? Can a country fight a modern war of attrition without being worn down – not by the enemy but by the sheer exhaustion of trying to do too much with too little for too long?
The energy workers who work in the dark understand something important: the lights must stay on, not because it’s easy or doable, but because the alternative is unthinkable.
The same goes for every part of Ukraine’s struggle in 2026.
Whether they can last long enough to reach an outcome Ukrainians can accept will decide what the next year looks like.
But, Ukrainians and their allies also remember, and are no doubt hopeful, that the darkest hour is just before dawn.
And they are aware that no matter how devastating the attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure have been, the lights keep coming back on.
The views expressed are the author’s and not necessarily of Kyiv Post.
