Russia is targeting Germany already — and Berlin believes worse is coming

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Germany is increasingly alarmed by a surge in Russian covert attacks targeting its infrastructure, warning that these hybrid threats may serve as preparation for a broader conflict, according to a classified military document obtained by Bloomberg. The German Defense Ministry document, known as Operationsplan Deutschland (OPLAN), outlines how Berlin sees itself as a key target in the early stages of any escalation with Moscow, given Germany’s strategic role as NATO’s central logistics hub in Europe.

This warning comes amid Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine and a broader trend of sabotage, espionage, and intimidation tactics targeting Ukraine’s allies within the European Union. These covert operations form part of Moscow’s escalating hybrid war against the West.

Russia’s hybrid attacks seen as first strike tactic

According to the document, Germany anticipates covert hybrid attacks — involving non-military or irregular methods — will likely precede any direct military confrontation. These attacks are expected to focus on energy systems, defense-related infrastructure, and the functioning of German institutions.

“Only after an open armed attack on NATO’s eastern flank will Germany increasingly be threatened or attacked with military means such as long-range missiles, armed drones, and special forces,” the document reads, according to Bloomberg.

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The paper frames ongoing hybrid threats inside Germany as not just part of Russia’s current tactics, but also as deliberate tools within its broader security policy and its ongoing confrontation with what it calls the “collective West.”

The Ministry described these hybrid measures as attempts to explore weak links in government cooperation and unsettle citizens.

A shift in tone — and a warning echoed by intelligence

The language used in the OPLAN marks a significant escalation from previous strategy documents. The Ministry explicitly states that Russia is now regarded as “the greatest and most immediate threat to Germany’s security,” aligning with the stance in Germany’s national security strategy.

Asked about the document at a regular government news conference on Monday, a defense ministry spokeswoman declined to comment on its contents due to confidentiality. However, she acknowledged in general terms that covert Russian attacks on German infrastructure had intensified.

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Russia’s long-term war planning — and Germany’s role

The OPLAN is grounded in information from both national and foreign intelligence sources. It suggests Russia is actively developing capabilities to conduct and withstand a large-scale war against NATO.

“Even if Russia’s war against Ukraine continues unchanged, it is expected that Russia will have developed these capabilities and strategic options by 2029 at the latest,” the document states. At the same time, the defense ministry believes that Russia seeks to confine any future conflict to Europe to avoid direct military confrontation with the US.

Map: ISW.

While Germany is not expected to become a direct battlefield in the event of a conventional attack on NATO’s eastern flank, the military believes Russia will attempt to sabotage the deployment of NATO forces for deterrence and defense by undermining logistics and decision-making capacities.

“The aim is to prevent the early detection of these hybrid measures and their actual extent and impact, and to slow down and paralyze our decision-making and response capabilities of the various responsible parties at federal, state and local level,” the defense ministry notes in the cited document.