Buried in the small library of documents released alongside the Albanese government’s new 2035 emissions reduction target on Thursday was a stark illustration of the challenge ahead.
As part of its advice recommending a target of 62% to 70% reductions from 2005 levels, the Climate Change Authority gave a speedometer of progress on decarbonisation to date. It showed in the five years to 2023-24, Australia reduced emissions by an average of 9 megatonnes (Mt). Last financial year, emissions reduced by 7Mt.
But to meet the government’s 2030 target, emissions reductions need to more than double that, cutting 16Mt per year. They need to go further still to hit the new 2035 goal, cutting 19 to 24Mt annually.
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At the heart of the government’s announcement – described by Anthony Albanese as a practical and “responsible target supported by science” – is a ramping up of the country’s efforts to get the job done on tackling the climate crisis.
It is clear from the advice and government modelling that every sector of the Australian economy will have to change. Progress on closing coal-fired power stations and installing solar panels and household batteries will be essential, but so will dramatically shifting the way transport, electricity supply and heavy industry work.
The new target range is lower than the 65% to 75% range originally proposed by the Climate Change Authority and sits somewhere between the demands of environment groups and the business community. Much like Albanese’s own style, it reflects a calculated, middle of the road approach, designed to offend as few people as possible.
The climate and energy minister, Chris Bowen, has stressed the target sticks closely to what the international community has agreed is necessary to limit warming in the world’s atmosphere to 1.5C. On Thursday he was at pains to point out the UN climate authority’s 2021 assessment that emissions needed to be cut by 68% globally by the middle of the next decade to meet that goal.
Australian government announces 2035 emissions reduction target – video
While it is unlikely to legislate the new target, Labor has signalled there is no going back on changing the country and looks set to use political capital from the election to steer the transition in this parliamentary term and beyond.
In the immediate term, the government needs to meet its goal of cutting emissions by 43% by 2030 and needs to boost investment in wind and solar developments, as well as transmission infrastructure and storage systems.
It has packed one political punch, however. Treasury modelling released on Thursday showed the required electrification of households will reduce energy bills by about $1,000 per year, even accounting for upfront costs. Homes with solar panels, batteries and EVs might save as much as $4,300. But, burned by Albanese’s 2022 promise that Labor would bring down power bills by $275, the prime minister, Bowen and the treasurer, Jim Chalmers, wouldn’t go near the possible savings.
Political attacks will flow from warnings of “a disorderly transition”, essentially a plan other than the one Labor wants to pursue. Treasury said such an approach, like the Coalition’s plans for nuclear power, would mean fewer jobs, less investment and a smaller economy.
Comparing the % emission reduction targets announced by each country for 2035, set to a 2005 baseline year
The opposition leader, Sussan Ley, dismissed years of work within hours. She said the Coalition did not accept the assumptions and would oppose the new targets. The Liberals and Nationals are tearing themselves apart over net zero by 2050 policies, and expecting a more considered response this week was unrealistic. The Greens and teal MPs said the target wasn’t ambitious enough and would not get the job done.
Albanese has begun making the case for Labor’s plan, noting solar panels today are 10 times more powerful than they were a couple of decades ago and almost 10 times cheaper.
Australia’s action on climate change matters, the prime minister stressed.
“It matters to our neighbours, it matters for our economy and it matters for the country that we pass on to our children.”
Whether or not Australia’s political system is up to the challenge remains to be seen.
