Seventy years ago, Baghdad thrived on abundance. The Tigris and
Euphrates carried nearly 95 billion cubic meters of water annually, sustaining
farms, neighborhoods, and power plants. Iraq’s population was under seven
million, and the capital’s rivers ran full and fast.
Today, with more than 46 million people, Baghdad’s lifeline is no longer
secure. The rivers have dwindled, reservoirs are shrinking, and the city’s
future depends on fragile flows and failing infrastructure.
Numbers That Tell the Story
Iraq holds just eight billion cubic meters of water in storage—barely 8%
of its full capacity. Baghdad alone consumes around five million cubic meters
every day for drinking water. Official planning allows 200 liters per person
daily, but in reality, the capital’s demand is higher, straining every intake
station on the Tigris.
Nationwide, monthly inflows stand at 1.19 billion cubic meters against
consumption of 2.53 billion. Baghdad, as the country’s largest consumer, sits
at the center of this widening gap.
Politics Upstream, Shortages Downstream
Turkiye’s dam projects have reduced Tigris flows to under 200 cubic
meters per second. Iran has diverted nearly all tributaries, cutting off the
Diyala River that once fed directly into the capital. With no binding treaties,
Baghdad depends on unstable upstream politics.
Former officials told Shafaq News in condition of anonymity that
multiple Iraqi delegations to Ankara and Tehran ended with “promises, not
commitments.” The capital’s water supply, they warn, now lives on borrowed
flows.
Fragile Backstops: Dams and Lakes
Mosul Dam, once Baghdad’s insurance policy, is under heavy strain,
releasing 57% more water than it receives. Tharthar Lake, another safeguard,
has dropped so sharply that floating pumps are needed to draw the last usable
reserves for Baghdad’s intake stations.
Shafaq News has learned from water officials that Iraq loses up to 10
billion cubic meters annually to evaporation under soaring summer heat—water
the capital never sees.
The Hidden Threat: Pollution
For Baghdad, scarcity is only half the danger. When river levels fall
below minimum flows, untreated sewage is pushed back into the Tigris. Health
workers quietly warn of rising cases of cholera, diarrhea, and hepatitis in the
capital during low-flow months.
If winter rains fail, Baghdad could face a full-scale public health
emergency—even if water continues reaching homes.
Human Pressures on the Capital
Drought-driven migration from the south is reshaping Baghdad. Families
from Maysan and Basra arrive with little but their needs, swelling demand on an
already fragile water network.
“We left because our land was dead,” says Abu Ali, a farmer from Maysan
who moved his family to the capital. “Now Baghdad is our only refuge, but even
here the river feels weaker every year.”
Mismanagement Deepens the Strain
Iraq receives about 40 billion cubic meters of water each year, but
wastes much of it through outdated farming. Flood irrigation for rice and wheat
consumes more than 70% of the national water supplies. For Baghdad, this means
less water reaches treatment plants, while hydropower shortages trigger
blackouts that now cut through the capital’s neighborhoods.
Reassurances Versus Reality
Optimism in official statements contrasts with the difficulties on the ground.
“The capital will not run dry,” says Turhan al-Mufti, adviser to the prime
minister, pointing to a new surface reservoir in Baghdad. Yet engineers working
at the city’s pumping stations told Shafaq News they are already struggling
with low pressure and rising contamination risks.
A Regional Alarm
Forbes magazine recently warned of “unprecedented drought” across Iraq
and the Middle East, calling the region one of the driest on Earth. Climate
scientist Diana Francis noted that Iraq is among the hardest hit after the end
of the El Niño cycle, which reduced rainfall. With just 2% of global renewable
water resources, the Middle East is home to 12 of the world’s most water-scarce
countries — and Baghdad is now on the frontline.
What Lies Ahead for Baghdad
If this winter brings little rain, Baghdad may avoid dry taps but face
poisoned rivers. A contaminated Tigris flowing through a city of nine million
would spark a public health disaster and intensify migration into the capital,
adding new layers of strain.
The city that once flourished on mighty rivers is now hostage to climate
change, political disputes, and decades of mismanagement. Baghdad is threatened
to become the starkest example of how a nation built on rivers can run out of
water.
