Sparta. This is one of the best kept secrets. Few know its full details, and here it will be sketched only in broad strokes for reasons of national security. Anyone who does know the full picture should not be sleeping soundly at night, unless they are recklessly irresponsible. The IDF faces an inventory problem. In several central systems its situation raises questions about its ability to meet missions in the short term and to satisfy its long-term reference scenarios.
This is not about one or two systems; it is many. In some, arms are missing; in others, spare parts; and in some cases both. The Defense Ministry and the IDF are working around the clock to fill the gaps, with only very partial success. The result is that units fighting now, or those that will be required to fight later, will not be fully equipped, in a way that will directly affect combat outcomes and could also influence casualty figures.
This reality is the result of three factors. First: the intense war that has lasted for two years, during which the IDF consumed an exceptional amount of materiel, ammunition and spare parts, far beyond its original planning. Second: embargoes imposed by various countries on the sale of arms and parts to Israel, part of their criticism of the ongoing campaign in Gaza. And third: the relatively long time needed to open alternative production lines in Israel’s defense industries.
One example is Germany, Israel’s second-largest weapons supplier (after the US), the main provider of engines for Merkava tanks and of tank and artillery shells. In January 2024 it even agreed to sell Israel 10,000 tank shells and additional equipment to assist in the war against the Hamas terrorist organization. But the prolongation of the war and the scope of civilian casualties in Gaza led Germany — one of Israel’s closest friends in Europe — to announce recently that it would halt weapon sales to Israel, as widely reported in the German press.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Photo: Chaim Goldberg/Flash 90, AP Photo: Chaim Goldberg/Flash 90, AP
A similar situation exists with other countries. In some cases Israel is given an official reason, and at times the Defense Ministry encounters elegant evasions. The bottom line is the same: growing difficulty in supplying the needs of the war, which sets every warning light blinking nervously.
That distress has produced two background noises in recent weeks. One is the decision to set up an Armaments Administration at the Defense Ministry, headed by the ministry’s director general, Amir Baram. The published tasks of the administration are to identify armament gaps and prepare for future threats; manage agreements with foreign states on armament supplies, production cooperation and knowledge exchanges; centralize monitoring of the national stockpile of critical armaments; develop emergency production capabilities and rapid wartime throughput; coordinate between IDF requirements and the capabilities of defense industries; and create a central interface among the Defense Ministry, the IDF, the Finance Ministry, the Economy Ministry and other regulatory bodies.
The second noise was Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s “super-Sparta” speech. In the press briefing he held the next day he tried to clarify that he meant the need to wean off defense dependencies, but his remarks were drowned out by the market sell-off and by attention to autarky in the economy. Few, if any, addressed the motive behind that unusual statement itself, which stems from the acute distress in the IDF.
Responsibility for the IDF’s readiness rests with the government, through the Diplomatic-Security Cabinet. Oversight is supposed to be exercised by the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, via its subcommittee. The cabinet, so far as is known, has been kept out of the full details on Netanyahu’s instruction. The subcommittee knows them, but does nothing. It has not even summoned Netanyahu or Defense Minister Israel Katz for an urgent hearing to obtain answers from them.
In the past, when responsibility was required on various issues, Netanyahu argued that no one had tugged at the hem of his coat. He cannot claim that now. The full details have been on his desk for some time. He made the decisions to continue and intensify the war in Gaza while ignoring the state of inventories. On the eve of the holiday, at a meeting with the General Staff forum, he signaled that new-old fronts are soon to join the campaign. “We need to destroy the Iranian axis,” he told the generals. “That is what lies ahead of us in the coming year, which could be a historic year for Israel’s security.”
There are two messages for Israeli citizens in those words. One: they can expect another year of war, which, surprisingly, collides with an election year (bringing all the unanswered questions about whether elections will be held on time and in what form). Two: despite Netanyahu’s declarations that Iran and Hezbollah were defeated, it turns out that victory over them is not behind us, but ahead of us.
Interceptions over Tel Aviv during the war with Iran. Credit: AFP AFP
It is reasonable to ask how Netanyahu intends to manage and win those wars, given what he knows about the IDF shortages. And not only: manpower levels are far from encouraging, and, of course, legitimacy is also in question. Netanyahu arrived in New York yesterday to attend the UN General Assembly debates in a situation unprecedented in Israel’s international standing. The world will need very good reasons to permit Israel to fight again in Lebanon and in Iran. It is not certain such reasons will be found.
The person who was supposed to turn things around in this situation is the defense minister. Full synchronization of the operational and logistical sides takes place in the ministry he heads. People there know exactly how long it takes to open a production line, how long until it begins producing at full capacity, how complex (and sometimes near impossible) it is to acquire certain raw materials, and how much time will be required before the gaps in needs are closed, and there is no alignment between any of that and the ambitious war plans Netanyahu presents.
Instead, Israel Katz focuses his activity on childish tweets. The result is that the headache remains the burden of the professional teams in the IDF and the Defense Ministry, who do not sleep at night. If Israeli citizens knew the full details, an entire nation would lose sleep.
IDF spokesman’s response: “The readiness of equipment and combat means is good for the maneuver, and allows the mission in Gaza to be carried out alongside maintaining readiness on the various fronts. The shortage of different spare parts does not impede combat readiness. According to the various needs arising from the field, many actions are carried out to maintain maneuver effort readiness across all its components, with emphasis on engineering equipment and armored vehicles. The IDF and the security establishment are working to preserve and expand stock levels and to create alternatives for items required for that purpose.”
Sparta 2. A friend, a veteran (and successful) member of the Israeli foreign service, asked to comment on something I wrote here last week, where I said Israel is a hair’s breadth away from becoming a pariah state shunned by the world like North Korea, Iran and Russia.
“I fear we will long for being in the place of those three pariahs,” he wrote. “We have become a unique example where hostility toward a state/policy/elected government is instantly translated into hostility toward the public. Once you are labeled Israeli, regardless of your identity or views, you are a target. Agree with me that, factually, they do not beat up a Russian or Iranian tourist just because he dares, heaven forbid, to speak his language.
“I have not seen Iranian, Russian and other intellectuals, academics and scientists who are not identified with their regimes (and certainly not supporters) being denounced and ostracized irrespective of their professional standing. This treatment is reserved only for us. Call it antisemitism? Probably yes, but that is not the whole explanation.”
No Israeli diplomat does not feel that wind, with varying intensity depending on the country in which he serves. No Israeli businessman, academic or even tourist has not encountered it in one form or another. Israel has become the most hated country in the world: it managed to turn the just war of all wars into multigenerational damage.
Macron in historic announcement: France will recognize a Palestinian state. Photo: EPA/AFP/Reuters EPA/AFP/Reuters
I see myself as one of those who think the sky has not yet fallen over the sweeping recognition of a Palestinian state. Mainly because it comes with a list of conditions, replacing Hamas rule, changing curricula, stopping support for prisoners, demilitarizing Gaza and more, conditions that are doubtful to be met in our lifetime.
But the trend is hard to ignore. Fifty-eight and a quarter years have passed since the Six Day War, the war Israel sees as liberation and the world sees as occupation. Fifty-eight and a quarter years during which Israel managed, with impressive diplomatic skill, to avoid the tsunami we are experiencing now. Fifty-eight and a quarter years in which it prospered while the Palestinians stagnated. Fifty-eight and a quarter years in which it succeeded in signing peace agreements while skipping the largest mine of all.
Even now Israel could have jumped over it, and even easily. All that was required was initiative. The whole world (and most of Israel) begged, proposed and demanded that it deal with the day after in Gaza, but Israel refused. The whole world (and most of Israel) begged, proposed and demanded that it be ready to include some Palestinian element in future governance of Gaza, but Israel refused. The whole world (and most of Israel) begged, proposed and demanded that Israel signal the end of the war, but it refused. In the end, the world (and most of Israel) grew tired. That is why Israel is now experiencing what it is on the international stage. That is why domestic support for the government is low.
As noted, for now it is mainly diplomacy. Only for now. The moment is near when we will all feel it. In our pockets, because boycotts will raise prices here, and as a result taxes will rise; in freedom of movement, because boycotts will require visas and restrict Israelis’ entry to some countries; and even in personal security, because more and more places are displaying overt and worrying hostility toward anything connected to Israel and Israelis.
Another friend who lives and works abroad for many years told me this week he fears Kristallnacht. I asked what he meant and he replied: “Given the current level of hatred and hostility toward Jews and Israelis, it would not take much for some group to decide to systematically burn synagogues, schools, businesses or homes of Jews and Israelis. Anyone who does not see that is not reading the map.”
Unlike then, Israel has a state. Unfortunately, its elected officials do not understand the situation and do not grasp their responsibility, or worse, they understand and do not care. When MK Miri Regev tweets on the eve of the holiday “sovereignty now!” she harms. When MK Yoav Kisch tweets “now is the time to apply sovereignty in Judea and Samaria!” he harms. Not to mention Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, who have turned the war in Gaza into a real estate project, which is damage on another scale.
Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich None
Fortunately, we will always have MK Nissim Vaturi to make us smile in hard days. His tweet that “Britain, Canada and Australia support the Nazis, like then and like today!” was a paradigmatic proof of the Knesset’s and of the Israeli education system’s level. Vaturi deleted the tweet, when he realized the scope of the fiasco. Reality, however, is harder to mend.
Questions. Although it is not Passover but Rosh Hashanah, six questions are required in the early days of the new year:
Will the government and its ministers treat the families of the captives with basic human decency?
Will the coalition stop the disgraceful preoccupation with draft-evasion legislation and work for real and immediate equality in the burden of service?
Will the scandalous streams of funds to sectoral groups at the expense of the general public and the needs of the war stop?
What is Israel’s contingency plan in case President Donald Trump reverses course, as he did with Russia, or simply gets tired of our wars?
Will a state commission of inquiry be established to investigate the failures of October 7?
Will elected officials replace incitement with a genuine effort to heal the rifts in the nation?
There are many more questions. Some are existential at the national level, some at the personal level. They touch every area of our lives — security, economy, education, welfare and more — and demand immediate attention and care. Worryingly, that is not happening. Israel is relying on miracles as solutions to its problems. Meanwhile that steers it along problematic and dangerous paths.
Still, may it be a good year.
