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Around €133 billion is needed to meet Ukraine’s budgetary and military aid needs in 2026 and 2027 to prevent Ukraine’s efforts in the war with Russia from collapsing. The European Union is exploring options to provide Kyiv with these funds, particularly through loans based on frozen Russian assets.
Source: European Pravda, citing an anonymous European Union official
Details: To prevent Ukraine’s position in the war with Russia from worsening, the European Union is looking for ways of providing Ukraine with about €133 billion in financial and military aid in 2026-2027.
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Quote from the EU source: “To withstand [Russia’s] aggression, Ukraine requires resources. And these are very significant resources. Preliminary estimates from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) indicate that in addition to the significant military assistance needed, Ukraine will require roughly €52-53 billion of financial support for 2026-27.”
Details: The source says this figure is a rough estimate, and calculating the funding for military needs is even more complex.
“Military aid for Ukraine could amount to approximately US$60 billion annually during the war and about US$25 billion in peacetime. Depending on how the hostilities develop, these costs could exceed US$80 billion in two years. And this is on top of the €53 billion in budget support previously mentioned,” the source told European Pravda.
The total external support Ukraine may require could therefore reach €133 billion in 2026-27.
“If this support is not provided, it will most likely lead to Ukraine’s collapse, and that would result in a significant security threat to the whole of Europe,” the source emphasised.
The anonymous EU official pointed out the shift in the United States’ attitude towards financial aid for Ukraine, stating that it is now impossible to rely on significant contributions from the US.
“That is why we’ve returned to the issue of frozen Russian assets – and we seem to have found a way to do it. The European Commission has not yet drafted a proposal on this matter, but it’s important to emphasise right away that there is no intention of confiscation under any circumstances.”
The official mentioned the proposal put forward by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen that Ukraine be provided with reparation loans based on frozen Russian assets.
According to the source, the proposal is based on a European Council ruling dated 17 October 2024 which made it clear that under EU law, Russia’s assets must remain frozen until Russia ends its war of aggression against Ukraine and pays compensation for the damage it has caused.
The EU official said talks are currently underway with EU member states and external partners regarding the concept of reparation loans for Ukraine and how they might work.
The source suggested that a specific proposal from the European Commission will be drafted after EU leaders have discussed this issue at the European Council meeting in Brussels on 23-24 October.
Background:
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has said he expects a decision to be made this month on the use of frozen Russian assets for further aid to Ukraine.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has acknowledged that many EU member states are hesitant to provide a reparation loan to Ukraine. Germany, Sweden, and Finland are among those who support the idea.
Copenhagen is convinced that it can be done despite the legal complexity of the issue.
Belgian Prime Minister Bart de Wever has asked other EU leaders to provide guarantees that they will share the risks if Ukraine receives loans financed with frozen Russian assets located in Belgium.
Hungary disagrees with the idea of giving Ukraine reparation loans based on funds from Russia’s frozen assets.
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