Shafaq News
The Middle East is once again on edge, and Iraq finds itself
uncomfortably positioned between Iran and Israel as the two regional powers
trade unusually sharp warnings.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz escalated the rhetoric
with a message to Tehran — “Our long arm will reach Tehran again with even
greater power, and this time personally to you too” — a direct threat to Iran’s
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
reinforced that stance, stressing that Israel remains determined to neutralize
Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities.
Iran has answered with uncompromising rhetoric of its own.
Major General Abdolrahim Mousavi, Chief of Staff of Iran’s Armed Forces,
promised a “harsh response” to any aggression, warning that Israel would face
“an even harder slap in the face” than during the previous 12-day
confrontation. Tehran insists it is in “unprecedented readiness” and prepared
to defend its territory decisively.
The warnings underscore a grim reality: a new confrontation
is not distant or hypothetical. Both powers are openly posturing and preparing
for escalation, and Iraq, situated at the crossroads of these tensions, faces
the prospect of becoming a corridor—or worse, a battlefield.
Danger Corridor Opens
Speaking to Shafaq News, Saeed Shawrdi, a political analyst
specializing in Iranian affairs, argued that Tehran sees the current escalation
as a response to ongoing US and Israeli provocations. “Washington and Tel Aviv
started a 12 day war and continue to issue threats,” he said, describing Iran’s
posture as a reaction to what it views as an existential danger.
He added that references to a “devastating war” are not
rhetorical; Iran demonstrated in the previous confrontation its capacity to
strike the United States and Israel, and today it is in a state of
“unprecedented readiness.”
In the past few months, Tehran has intensified efforts to
address vulnerabilities exposed during the 12 day war. Reports indicated that
Iran has upgraded its air defense networks, expanded radar coverage to monitor
broader airspace, reinforced missile command and control systems, and deployed
advanced drone and missile interception technologies.
Additionally, Tehran has improved coordination between its
conventional forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), while
investing in cyber defenses to protect critical infrastructure and military
systems – steps aimed to reduce the gaps that previously allowed Israeli
airstrikes to reach sensitive Iranian targets with relative ease.
Shawrdi warned that any future conflict could be extensive.
Israel, he contends, has already used the airspace of multiple countries,
including Iraq, to strike inside Iran, violating sovereignty in Tehran’s eyes.
Allowing Israel to operate from these spaces, he argued,
would draw those states directly into the conflict, raising the risk of
destabilization inside Iraq.
Read more: War of Isolation: US–led pressure collides with Iran’s push to reinforce influence
Factions Defy State?
Iraq’s territory, particularly its airspace, is at the
center of this calculus. Each round of regional tension has tested Baghdad’s
neutrality, and each time the margin for maneuver has grown smaller.
Baghdad is squeezed between its strategic relationship with
Washington, its historical ties with Tehran, and the influence of domestic
armed factions aligned with Iran. Trying to stay neutral has become a delicate
balancing act performed under increasing pressure.
Kadhim Al-Fartousi, spokesperson for Kataib Sayyid
al-Shuhada, one of the country’s prominent armed factions, stressed that Iraq
must not become a passageway for attacks against Iran.
“Our position is firm, but any action in the field must
follow Iraq’s national interest first,” he said, noting that Iraq’s lack of a
credible deterrent — from modern air defenses to reliable radar networks —
leaves the country exposed to threats from both Israel and the United States.
In his view, danger is unavoidable unless Iraq strengthens its ability to
protect its own sovereignty.
Read more: No peace vs. not our war: How Iran-Israel conflict divides Iraqi youth
These statements align with comments issued by
Iranian-aligned factions during the 12-day conflict. Nearly all factions
addressed the Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani directly or indirectly,
urging him to resist American pressure and prevent further violations of Iraqi
airspace.
Asaib Ahl al-Haq, led by Qais Al-Khazali, demanded that Iraq
acquire air defense systems and stop relying on US-controlled aerial oversight,
implying that Washington is obstructing Iraq’s right to self-defense.
While these factions have previously stopped short of
declaring immediate military retaliation, their language suggested that they
now view Israeli aggression on Iran as a direct threat to Iraq, raising
question if this is yet the clearest indication that the Iranian concept of a
“Unity of Fronts” — where aligned groups in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen
operate collectively — may be shifting from deterrent doctrine to active
strategy?
Read more: Iran-backed Iraqi factions signal escalation and unity following Israeli strikes on Iran
Neutrality Must Win
Former parliamentarian Mohammed Al-Shammari, a member of
Iraq’s Security and Defense Committee, described the current tensions as a
media-driven war carrying subtle messages of escalation.
He recalled the 12-day confrontation between Iran and
Israel, during which Iraq became a corridor for Iranian missiles and Israeli
aircraft. He then credited Al-Sudani for sustaining Iraq’s neutrality, noting
that Iranian-aligned factions refrained from launching retaliatory strikes on
Israel.
“This illustrates the government’s ability to exercise
control over internal actors,” he remarked, underscoring that as long as Iran
faces danger, Iraq faces danger as well — further signaling the need for
careful diplomacy.
Meanwhile, security analyst Ahmed Al-Sharifi characterized
the looming confrontation as a “zero-sum game,” in which each side views its
survival as threatened, prompting both to consider removing the other.
“Iraq lacks the institutional capacity to prevent armed
factions from taking action on Iran’s behalf,” he added, noting that this
leaves the country vulnerable to deeper involvement in regional conflict.
He argued that preventing external powers from using Iraq’s
territory or airspace is central to protecting national sovereignty, stressing
that lessons from past confrontations show that restraint and centralized
control can help avoid pulling Iraq into direct conflict.
The fragility of Iraq’s position mirrors its strategic
importance. Any miscalculation could place Baghdad on the frontline, yet
careful navigation can preserve Iraq’s neutrality and provide a buffer against
broader escalation.
Read more: Countdown to a wider war: Why Iraq is the most vulnerable link in regional escalation
Written and edited by Shafaq News staff.
