It feels like every year we’re told this is one of the worst flu seasons on record.
But this time around, doctors really mean it.
We’re only part-way through July and the rate of infections is already nearing full-year figures for previous years.
There are fears the horror flu season will place more pressure on the health system. (ABC News: Keane Bourke)
It’s worrying experts, including the Australian Medical Association, whose president said West Australians should buckle up for a “difficult couple of weeks ahead”.
‘More pathogenic’
Professor Yuben Moodley is a professor of respiratory medicine at the University of Western Australia, and said he expected this year to be the second-worst flu season in the last decade.
“The virus evolves and mutates every flu season and the aim of the virus is to avoid our immune response and to then infect cells more efficiently,” he said.
“There’s certain times and certain flu strains which are more effective in doing that than others.
“I think unfortunately we are in a situation where that virus mutation and the more pathogenic strain is what we have at the moment.”
Ageing population fears
That does not necessarily mean the flu is getting more severe, however.
‘Disaster waiting to happen’: AMA sounds alarm on ‘horror’ WA flu season
“What happens though is that we have an increasing ageing population who are becoming more susceptible to the flu,” Professor Moodley said.
“The flu in a young, healthy person is not going to have major consequences, but if you have much more aged people, it certainly will result in more hospitalisations than previously.
“So an increase in the ageing population will result in increased presentations to the doctor or to hospital.”
It comes as national data showed a 50 per cent increase in hospital admissions over a fortnightly period due to the winter surge.
Infections ramping up
Those increased presentations have been blamed for increased pressure on hospitals, as shown by ambulance ramping figures.
Ambulances are considered “ramped” when they spend more than half-an-hour waiting outside a hospital to hand over a patient.
The average hours paramedics have spent ramped each day has been increasing significantly in WA since May, and is currently sitting just shy of records set at the peak of the pandemic.
System ‘performing well’
Premier Roger Cook said it was not surprising the system would be under pressure at this time of year.
He also denied St John Ambulance struggling to meet its response time targets showed there needed to be extra capacity in the health system.
WA has endured what the AMA described as a “horror flu season”. (ABC News: Keane Bourke)
“We need to make sure that we deploy taxpayers’ funds in an efficient manner, so you don’t want to have too much extra capacity, you don’t want to have too little extra capacity,” he said.
“It’s a matter of balance.
“But [the system’s] performing well … and we’ll continue to look at how we can improve hospital services.”
Roger Cook insists the system is performing well despite the surge in flu cases. (ABC News: Keane Bourke)
Cook’s view is in stark contrast to medical groups, including the Australian Medical Association, who suggest the state is at least 1,000 hospital beds short of being able to meet demand.
“While demand on our hospitals is high, it is being managed and pausing elective surgeries is not something that is being considered,” Health Minister Meredith Hammat said during the week.
Early start to season
Compounding issues is that WA’s flu season started earlier than usual.
“This year in particularly, possibly because of increased travel over the last six months, we have seen a worse flu season earlier than we expected,” WA Health Director General Shirley Bowen told budget estimates earlier in July.
“Normally in Western Australia we might see a flu peak in July, August or September, often more in the August period.
“This year we saw new cases in January. That is sort of an overflow from the situation in the UK and Europe.”
The solutions, of course, seem simple: vaccination and staying home when sick.
Actually getting people to do either of those things is much more difficult.
Western Australia’s flu vaccine coverage was 25.4 per cent at the end of June — one per cent behind the national average and tied for second-last with Queensland.
Vaccination push
Asked on Friday if she was happy with the uptake of the vaccine, Seniors Minister Simone McGurk would only the say the government was “sending a very, very strong message that we want people to be vaccinated” by making it free.
Professor Moodley thinks more needs to be done.
“I think it is important to address vaccine scepticism a little more strongly,”he said.
Yuben Moodley is a professor of respiratory medicine at the University of Western Australia. (Supplied)
“Perhaps we can actually improve our outreach to people and to educate people better.
“I think governments are faced with a lot of vaccine scepticism due to social media and other issues.”
Preventative Health Minister Sabine Winton said earlier this month apathy was an issue.
“I am told the rate is about two per cent better than the case last year,” she said.
Sabine Winton is urging people to make sure they are vaccinated. (ABC News: James Carmody)
“I do not want anyone to be complacent. We need to be doing much better than that to really have an even better impact on keeping people healthy and out of hospitals.”
Like anything in health, that’s likely to be expensive and take a long time.
It means at this stage, as cases continue to grow, there’s little to do but stick to the basics and manage the pressures that result.
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