Nairobi — Public approval of the Broad-Based Government arrangement has surged sharply in the months following the death of veteran opposition leader Raila Odinga, but nearly half of Kenyans remain uneasy, warning that the political pact could weaken democratic accountability, a new national survey shows.
The survey by TIFA Research, conducted in mid-November 2025, found that support for the cooperation between President William Ruto and the late former Prime Minister has doubled from 22 per cent in May to 44 per cent in November.
The findings suggest a country cautiously embracing political stability, even as concerns persist that the arrangement is blurring the line between government and opposition.
According to the poll, the rise in support for the broad based government is driven overwhelmingly by a desire for national cohesion rather than confidence in government policy or economic performance.
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Among respondents who back the arrangement, 72 per cent cited the promotion of national unity and the reduction of ethnic tension as their main reason for support.
“Many Kenyans appear willing to prioritise peace and stability over traditional political competition,” the TIFA report notes.
Another 11 per cent of supporters said the broad based government has enhanced the legitimacy and stability of governance, while 10 per cent believe it could improve the fairness of resource allocation across regions.
The shift has been particularly pronounced in former opposition strongholds. In Western Kenya, support for the broad based government jumped by 31 percentage points to 62 per cent, while in Nyanza it rose by 25 points to 59 per cent.
“These regions appear to have reassessed their relationship with the state following Raila Odinga’s final political choices and subsequent passing,” the report observes.
Deep Unease
Despite the surge in approval, opposition to the broad based government remains strong. The poll shows that 48 per cent of Kenyans still oppose the arrangement, viewing it as a threat to democratic checks and balances.
Among critics, corruption emerged as the dominant concern. Thirty-five per cent of opponents said the broad based government has encouraged personal enrichment and rent-seeking within government.
Another 31 per cent warned that the effective absorption of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) into the ruling coalition has undermined the role of the opposition.
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“The swallowing of the largest opposition party has weakened oversight and created confusion about who is responsible for holding government accountable,” the report states.
A further 16 per cent of critics cited lack of transparency and insufficient public participation in decision-making, while 13 per cent said the broad based government has failed to address the real economic pressures facing ordinary citizens.
Silence on Government Flagships
One of the most striking findings in the survey is the absence of policy achievements from the public’s justification for supporting the broad based government.
Despite the government’s aggressive promotion of flagship programmes including the Hustler Fund, Social Health Authority (SHA) reforms and the Affordable Housing initiative — none of the broad based government supporters mentioned these projects as reasons for backing the arrangement.
“This suggests that support for the Broad-Based Government is largely symbolic and political, rather than performance-driven,” the report noted.
