Myanmar will hold the first phase of a general election on Sunday, its first vote in five years and an exercise that critics say will neither restore the country’s fragile democracy undone by a 2021 army takeover, nor end a devastating civil war.
The military has framed the polls as a return to multi-party democracy, likely seeking to add a facade of legitimacy to its rule, which began after the army four years ago ousted the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi.
The takeover triggered widespread popular opposition that has grown into a civil war. The fighting has complicated holding the polls in many contested areas.
Voting will be held in different parts of the country in three phases, with the second on January 11 and the third on January 25.
Human rights and opposition groups say the vote will be neither free nor fair and that power is likely to remain in the hands of military leader Senior General Min Aung Hlaing.
Richard Horsey, a Myanmar analyst for the International Crisis Group, noted the vote is being run by the same military that was behind the 2021 coup.
“These elections are not credible at all,” he told The Associated Press.
“They do not include any of the political parties that did well in the last election or the election before.”
Horsey says the military’s strategy is for its favoured Union Solidarity and Development Party to win in a landslide, shifting Myanmar from direct military rule to a government with a “civilian veneer” that perpetuates army control.
Western nations have maintained sanctions against Myanmar’s ruling generals because of their anti-democratic actions and brutal war on their opponents.
The army seized power on February 1, 2021, claiming the 2020 election – won in a landslide by Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy – was illegitimate because of alleged large-scale voter registration irregularities. Independent observers, however, found no major problems.
On Sunday, ballots will be cast in 102 of the country’s 330 townships. Further rounds will follow on January 11 and January 25, leaving 65 townships where there would be no voting because of the ongoing conflict with ethnic guerrilla groups and resistance forces.
Though 57 parties have fielded candidates, most are posting candidates only in their own home states or regions. Six parties are competing nationwide and have a chance of winning enough seats to wield political power, but the rules make it likely the pro-military USDP will emerge in position to lead a new government.
In total, nearly 5000 candidates are competing for more than 1100 seats in the two chambers of the national legislature and in state and regional legislatures, though the actual number of seats that will be filled will be less where constituencies are not voting.
The Union Election Commission has yet to release the total number of eligible voters, but in 2020, there were more than 37 million.
Myanmar’s 80-year-old former leader and her party are not taking part in the election. Suu Kyi is currently serving a 27-year prison term on charges widely seen as bogus and politically motivated. Her National League party was dissolved after refusing to officially register under the new military rules.
Other parties are also boycotting the vote or have declined to run under conditions they say are unfair. Opposition groups have also called for a boycott by voters.
An Election Protection Law with harsh penalties enacted this year put even more restrictions on political activity, effectively barring all public criticism of the polls. More than 200 people have been charged for leafleting or online activity over the past few months.
All this likely sets the stage for the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party to dominate the polls – and for 69-year-old Min Aung Hlaing to take over as president.
