Shafaq News
There is no clear basis to conclude that 2026 will be
better than 2025, a year marked by wars, sharp economic volatility, severe
financial disruptions, and widespread living crises across many countries.
Recent global developments leave little room for
certainty about the direction of 2026. It is difficult to make accurate
predictions amid overlapping political and economic risks, including recession,
inflation, mounting debt, slowing growth, climate change, unemployment,
poverty, corruption, and persistent uncertainty.
Expectations that these risks might recede in 2026
remain weak. No firm indicators that trade disputes, tariff wars, or
protectionist policies, particularly those led by US President Donald Trump
against multiple economies, will ease, or that military spending will decline
in favor of investment in housing, education, and infrastructure.
War in Ukraine
Ukraine ceded additional territory in 2025 as the war
with Russia intensified, confronting Kyiv with increasingly stark options,
including the possibility of relinquishing lost areas to halt the fighting.
Despite expanding strikes deep inside Russian
territory to an unprecedented extent, Ukraine failed to stop Russian advances,
which continued at a slow but steady pace. Throughout the year, the conflict
was marked by heavier combat, a rising civilian death toll, and sustained
attacks on infrastructure in both countries, while front-line positions shifted
only marginally.
Russian forces seized about 4,669 square kilometers of
Ukrainian land in 2025, a 22 percent increase compared with the territory
captured in 2024. The gains included areas such as Orekhovo, Moskovka, and
Dolhynke.
Moscow intensified its offensive in eastern and
southern Ukraine, pushing forward gradually in the face of stiff Ukrainian
resistance. By early July, Russian troops had taken full control of Luhansk
province and captured scattered territories across Kharkiv, Donetsk,
Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kherson provinces, amounting to nearly 5,000
square kilometers, according to Kremlin statements.
Since the beginning of 2025, Russian forces have
sustained a campaign of missile and drone strikes across Ukraine. The
bombardment hit multiple regions, including Cherkasy, Poltava, Lviv, Mykolaiv,
and Zaporizhzhia. The attacks severely disrupted electricity, water, and
heating supplies in major cities such as Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Kremenchuk, while
inflicting damage on critical energy infrastructure, including the Trypilska
and Zmiivska thermal power plants.
Ukraine, meanwhile, struggled to mount successful
large-scale counteroffensives. The sole notable exception came in mid-December,
when Ukrainian forces reported recapturing most of the border city of Kupiansk
in eastern Kharkiv province.
By midyear, Kyiv redirected its efforts toward
striking Russian oil wells, refineries, export ports, and energy facilities
across multiple regions. On July 1, Ukraine said it carried out a high-profile
operation, dubbed “Spider Web,” deep inside Russian territory, targeting four
air bases. Ukraine’s Security Service said the operation destroyed 41 bombers
—around 34 percent of Russia’s strategic bomber fleet— and inflicted losses
estimated at no less than $7 billion.
Moscow responded by intensifying drone and missile
attacks on Ukraine’s power generation and transmission infrastructure
nationwide. The renewed campaign plunged cities back into darkness and forced
the reinstatement of emergency and scheduled power outages, echoing conditions
last seen in late 2022 and mid-2023.
The situation worsened as severe winter weather set
in, compounded by delays and disruptions to the heating season after Russian
strikes hit major gas storage facilities.
Following US President Donald Trump’s return to
office, Washington adopted a tougher posture toward Kyiv. Trump repeatedly
criticized and pressured Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, escalating
political tensions between the allies.
By the end of 2025, diplomatic efforts had failed to
yield any breakthrough or political settlement to end the war. A new US peace
initiative surfaced late in the year, but Russia has so far rejected it, with
the Kremlin saying it has not reviewed the latest revised version of the
proposal.
Meanwhile, Ukraine increasingly pivoted toward Europe,
which for the first time since the war began in February 2022 effectively
became Kyiv’s main channel for acquiring most of its needs from Washington
during the year.
Latin America on Edge
The Caribbean witnessed an escalation in US military
activity near Venezuela’s shores in 2025, with Washington announcing a series
of security and strategic operations it said were aimed at countering drug
trafficking networks.
Venezuela, however, condemned the moves as a direct
challenge to its sovereignty and warned that the buildup risked destabilizing
the broader region.
President Nicolas Maduro declined to address claims by
US President Donald Trump earlier this week that the United States had attacked
Venezuelan territory. Despite sidestepping the question, Maduro signaled a
willingness to engage with Washington, even as the United States has stepped up
pressure on Caracas in recent weeks.
Maduro said he was “ready” to hold talks with the
United States on drug enforcement, oil, and economic cooperation, underscoring
his openness to dialogue amid strained relations fueled by the deployment of US
warships in the Caribbean.
Since September, US forces have conducted roughly 30
operations in the Caribbean Sea and the eastern Pacific against vessels
Washington suspects of involvement in drug smuggling. The strikes reportedly
resulted in about 107 deaths.
To date, the United States has not provided evidence
to substantiate claims that the targeted vessels were transporting narcotics.
Caracas has accused the Trump administration of using
what it describes as unfounded drug trafficking allegations as a pretext to
weaken Maduro’s government and gain access to Venezuela’s vast oil resources.
Trump’s actions against Venezuela’s oil sector draw on
the “Project 2025” policy blueprint developed by the Heritage Foundation, which
revives the Monroe Doctrine in a more hardline form described by its authors as
tailored to a “Trump-era crisis.”
Project 2025 frames full US control over energy
resources in the Western Hemisphere as a strategic necessity to counter growing
Chinese and Russian influence. To legitimize this approach, the Venezuelan
government and its state oil institutions were designated under
terrorism-related classifications, a move that legally redefined Venezuelan oil
from a commercial commodity into an “illicit asset” subject to seizure.
This policy shift materialized in late 2025 with the
imposition of a maritime blockade and the interception of oil tankers carrying
Venezuelan crude.
While tensions between Washington and Caracas have
spanned decades, the new US administration has revived a traditional strategy
built on political, economic, and military pressure, accompanied by sharper
rhetoric toward the Venezuelan leadership. US officials have repeatedly accused
the Maduro government of corruption, drug trafficking, and posing a threat to
regional security.
United States and Global Politics
The United States and the wider world are also
approaching the US midterm congressional elections, which are expected to shape
President Trump’s political standing domestically and internationally.
The outcome could either consolidate his position or
result in the loss of a majority in the House of Representatives or the Senate.
Such a shift could have significant domestic consequences and may force changes
in US foreign policy positions or limit the administration’s ability to make
key internal decisions.
Asia and Strategic Rivalries
Despite ending quickly, the latest confrontation
between India and Pakistan is viewed as capable of resurfacing in different
forms, even as both sides and international actors appear determined to avoid
escalation into a nuclear conflict.
Tensions between China and Taiwan remained elevated
throughout 2025, marked by sharp rhetoric and sustained military signaling, but
stopped short of confrontation.
Both sides carried out repeated military exercises
over the year, using drills to convey strategic messages rather than escalate
into open hostilities. The standoff sharpened toward the end of 2025, when the
Chinese military concluded exercises around Taiwan aimed at simulating a
blockade of the island. Taipei responded by vowing to defend its sovereignty
“with resolve.”
In parallel, Chinese President Xi Jinping used his New
Year address to reaffirm Beijing’s position, saying the reunification of the
nation could not be prevented.
The latest escalation came last Tuesday, when the
Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army launched a
two-day live fire exercise around Taiwan under the name “Justice Mission 2025.”
The drills surrounded large parts of the island and followed less than two
weeks after the United States approved an $11.1 billion arms package for
Taipei, the largest military assistance package Taiwan has received from
Washington.
The exercise mobilized ground, naval, air, and missile
forces, including stealth fighter jets, destroyers, and missile-launch
platforms, underscoring Beijing’s growing operational reach.
In early 2026, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense
said it detected 31 Chinese warships and 16 coast guard vessels operating in
the area during the drills. The ministry also reported 207 sorties by Chinese
military aircraft, well above the 135 sorties recorded during a two-day
exercise in April and the 153 logged during a one-day drill in October.
Despite the surge in activity, deterrence dynamics
continue to prevent a direct clash. China views Taiwan as an inseparable part
of its territory and has never renounced the use of force to achieve
reunification. The United States, while not recognizing Taiwan as a sovereign
state, opposes any attempt to change the status quo by force and is legally
obligated to provide Taipei with defensive weapons.
By 2025, it had become increasingly clear that the
international system was operating under a new reality, one defined less by
decisive solutions and more by efforts to contain crises and prevent systemic
collapse. Conflicts dragged on without clear outcomes, political compromises
emerged stripped of fairness, and rivalry among major powers deepened, with no
evident vision for a more balanced and durable global order.
Written and edited by Shafaq News staff.
