Gaza (1). The Diplomatic-Security Cabinet is set to meet Thursday evening to discuss the future of the war in Gaza. The options are familiar: maintaining the current situation; intensifying the encirclement and carrying out raids, as proposed by the Israel Defense Forces; or conquering more areas of the Strip, first and foremost Gaza City and the central refugee camps, as demanded by several ministers, with Netanyahu’s support.
The IDF favors the middle path, with several arguments to back it.
Northern Gaza Strip. Photo: Reuters Reuters
The first is concern for the hostages’ lives. Most are held in those areas. Netanyahu claims that this strategy will improve the chances of rescuing them. It’s an interesting argument, but there’s no evidence to back it up. In fact, the IDF hasn’t rescued a single living hostage since Operation Arnon in June 2024. The opposite is true: in several cases, troop movements near the hostages endangered their lives and even led to their deaths, the most infamous being the killing of six hostages in Khan Younis in August 2024.
The second argument is the troop’s fatigue. It’s doubtful that the cabinet fully grasps the severity of this issue, or that the IDF is willing to present the data publicly. Reserve duty turnout, which stood at 130% at the start of the war, has dropped to 70% according to official IDF figures, and likely even lower in practice. Many reservists aren’t refusing to serve, they simply aren’t showing up.
The reasons vary – family, work, studies, psychological burnout – but the result is the same. The IDF cannot solve this alone, especially while the government is simultaneously advancing draft exemption legislation. Assuming the conquest of these areas in Gaza would require five to six divisions, one has to wonder where those troops will come from, particularly as the standing army is already under immense pressure, evident in the physical and emotional toll on soldiers.
IDF troops in the Gaza Strip. Photo: IDF Spokesperson’s Unit IDF Spokesperson’s Unit
The third reason is humanitarian. Around one million Palestinians live in Gaza City. The central refugee camps house another 400,000 to 500,000.
It’s unclear where they could evacuate to, or who would supply them. The organization set up for that purpose, GHF, has proven a total failure. It’s unclear how it could be replaced without involving the UN or the IDF. The first option is problematic, as it would mean aid would likely reach Hamas. The second is even worse: Israeli soldiers distributing food to Gazans. The so-called “humanitarian city” still being entertained by some ministers is a recipe for disaster, a humanitarian disaster that would quickly become an Israeli one, potentially alienating even countries that have so far refrained from turning against Israel.
It’s doubtful most Israelis understand just how dire Israel’s international standing has become, or how short the road is to total isolation. Sadly, the same applies to many ministers. If the cabinet were holding a truly serious debate, it would be presented with in-depth research from the National Security Council on the international arena and the economic implications of the proposed course of action. The first would point clearly to a dangerous, possibly irreversible historic low. The second would detail a significant economic burden, one that could become untenable if Israel is forced to administer Gaza under prolonged military rule.
Anti-Israel Protest in Stockholm. Photo: Reuters Reuters
The international issue is worth a few more words. Israel is becoming a pariah state. It’s not just the recent protests in Greece or earlier this week in Sydney. Every Israeli traveling abroad feels it, in the hostility, the coldness, the distancing. Many are now hesitant to say they’re from Israel, citing other countries of origin instead. The next step, already under discussion, is restricting entry for Israelis. The European Union is considering removing Israel from its visa waiver agreement, meaning anyone wishing to travel to an EU country would need to go through embassies or online applications.
It’s likely that one of the required questions on these applications will be whether the applicant served in the IDF, and where and when. Australia already asks this. Many will fail this filter, and be denied entry to Europe. Anyone thinking they can game the system is underestimating today’s technology: governments can easily cross-reference data from countless sources, aided by anti-Israel organizations already gathering information, courtesy of those who post it on social media, which will then be used to file mass legal complaints.
Thousands march in protest against Israel on Sydney Harbour Bridge, Australia. Photo: AP AP
An Israeli soldier arriving for vacation in Europe could be arrested. It’s doubtful Israel is prepared to mount a legal defense against this wave.
And this won’t stop at the personal level.
Israeli companies are already reporting a chill in dealings with international firms. The moment Israel is officially branded a pariah statem which could happen if it orders the evacuation of Gaza residents, the diplomatic tsunami will intensify. It won’t end with formal recognition of a Palestinian state. There will be calls, some of which will be answered, to impose economic sanctions. Companies will comply, canceling contracts or investments, the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund, the largest in the world, has already announced it is reviewing its holdings in Beit Shemesh Engines.
Pressure will mount on major firms, like Google and Microsoft, to reduce ties with Israel. Yesterday’s report in the British Guardian about the IDF’s Unit 8200 using European cloud servers to store data on the Palestinian file, some of which supported offensive operations, could prove decisive. The current US administration may not be able to put a stop to this trend for long.
Then there’s the legal issue. Prof. Eliav Lieblich, a leading expert in international law, posted a lengthy warning Tuesday that the world may interpret a full occupation of Gaza as, “at best, a crime against humanity; at worst, genocide.” Anyone involved, he said, could be implicated. The proof, the international community will argue, lies in statements by several ministers who openly spoke of expulsion and annihilation. From there, it’s a short path to the UN ordering Israel to end the war – and again, the US may not be able to stop it.
The consequences won’t just endanger every Israeli and Jew abroad or every company engaged in global trade (thanks to successive Israeli governments that systematically dismantled industry and agriculture). They will also impact Israel’s security. An arms embargo would limit both the purchase and sale of weapons, severely constraining the IDF’s operational capacity. Assuming regional threats do not recede in the coming years, Israel could find itself dangerously exposed. That, after all, was precisely Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar’s goal when he launched the October 7 “Al-Aqsa Flood” massacre.
This week, I asked a very senior and well-informed official what Netanyahu and his ministers think about all this. Here is the answer in full: “Some don’t care. They’re messianic and believe everything will work out in the end.” And the rest? “They think they’ll deal with it later.” And can they? “I’m afraid not. We are one step away from total victory becoming total defeat.”
Palestinians with humanitarian aid in the Gaza Strip. Photo: AFP AFP
Gaza (2). The situation is still reversible. Israel can change course. Its room for maneuver has significantly narrowed, largely due to Hamas’s successful starvation campaign, but there is still a considerable space for action. It requires a grand strategy, not piecemeal improvisation. Two such improvisations stood out recently: Netanyahu’s abrupt shift from supporting partial hostage deals to insisting on one comprehensive agreement; and Israel’s sudden pivot from restricting humanitarian aid to flooding Gaza with it.
The cornerstone of any solution lies in the question of the day after. Netanyahu has been fleeing from it since the war began. It will haunt him until the end. Even hostile European governments agree on two points: Hamas must not rule Gaza, and the Strip must be demilitarized. That is a good starting point. Israel must build on it, by clarifying who will govern Gaza, when, and how it intends to transfer authority. As long as Israel avoids answering those questions, the world sees it as responsible.
The threat of territorial conquest may be significant for Hamas, but losing power is an even greater one. That is what drives every regime and organization of its kind (see: Iran). That is the main leverage Israel holds. And it’s the only way out of the crisis Israel has brought upon itself through its own actions and failures. These failures are piling up and already demand a separate state commission of inquiry into everything that has happened since October 7.
In its bid to evade responsibility, the government is passing the blame onto others. The current scapegoat is IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, who is now under attack from ministers and even members of Netanyahu’s family. It won’t help them: just as dismissing Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, Halevi, and Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar didn’t change reality, firing Zamir – something they are apparently hoping for – won’t change anything either. It would only harm the IDF, its soldiers, and Israel’s national security.
The current trend is to blame the victims. Hostage families are told to keep quiet, as they’re “interfering” with efforts to free their loved ones. Reservists are told to keep quiet, as they’re “scaring off” potential Haredi recruits. Academia is told to keep quiet, lest it fuels boycotts. The opposition is told to keep quiet, as it “hurts the war effort.” And so it goes, antisemitism around the world, pro-Palestinian sentiment, international condemnation, everything has culprits, except those truly responsible.
But our reality, the devil that it is, refuses to budge. And the mirror on the wall will always remind them who’s really to blame.
