MultiChoice entered December bracing for a difficult renegotiation with Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD). What it did not anticipate was a global takeover fight that would destabilise its content backbone and plunge DStv and Showmax into unprecedented uncertainty.
The shock began when Netflix announced a $72 billion agreement to buy WBD’s studio and streaming assets, including Warner Studios, HBO and the DC entertainment catalogue.
For Africa’s biggest broadcaster, which has long relied on Warner and HBO titles to anchor its premium tiers, the development struck at the heart of its value proposition. An internal Showmax analysis dated December 7 shows the platform currently carries 191 HBO series.
The situation grew even more dramatic when the BBC confirmed that Paramount Skydance had launched a hostile $108 billion all-cash bid for the entire WBD group.
David Ellison, CEO, Paramount, publicly dismissed Netflix’s deal as ‘an inferior offer,’ insisting that Paramount’s approach provides “greater certainty and far more cash value for shareholders.”
WBD responded that its board would review Paramount’s proposal but maintained its recommendation in favour of Netflix’s deal.
At a UBS media conference in New York on December 8, Ted Sarandos, Netflix co-CEO, reacted with calm confidence.
“Today’s move was entirely expected,” he said. “We’re super-confident we’re going to get it across the line.”
He also rejected concerns that the takeover would trigger layoffs, insisting that Netflix intends to continue both theatrical and streaming releases for Warner’s slate. “Where do you think synergies come from? Cutting jobs? So, we’re not cutting jobs. We’re making jobs.”
Read also: Netflix agrees to acquire Warner Bros., streaming assets for $82.7bn
Multichoice’s unprecedented challenge
For MultiChoice, the bidding war has turned a tough December into a chaotic one. Until late November, the company’s biggest worry was the potential loss of 12 Warner channels, including CNN, Cartoon Network, TNT Africa, HGTV, Food Network and Investigation Discovery, after renewal talks with WBD stalled.
MultiChoice had warned subscribers the channels could go dark from December 31, heightening fears of cancellations. The broadcaster was also set to lose BET Africa, MTV Base, CBS Justice and AMC Networks feeds by year-end as Paramount withdraws several African linear channels.
Netflix’s bid and Paramount’s aggressive counter have now turned MultiChoice’s challenge from a tough negotiation into a structural survival test.
If Netflix acquires WBD’s studio library, it would gain exclusive control over the titles that define Showmax’s premium value such as Game of Thrones, The Sopranos, House of the Dragon, The Big Bang Theory, The Last of Us and the entire DC Universe.
One analyst quoted by TechCentral put it bluntly, “Showmax without HBO is not Showmax.”
TechCentral also reported that December’s negotiations between MultiChoice and WBD reached ‘a breaking point’ with one executive saying the Netflix announcement “changed the entire playing field overnight.”
Read also: DStv may drop 11 major TV channels by December 31 as MultiChoice–Warner Bros. deal stalls
The timing could hardly be worse. MultiChoice has lost more than one million subscribers in two years, a decline driven by inflation, intensifying competition and a weakening South African rand.
Netflix now leads in several urban markets across Nigeria, Kenya and South Africa. Analysts warn that even the perception that HBO content is at risk could accelerate churn over multiple quarters.
Meanwhile, uncertainty around WBD’s ownership has compounded the anxiety. Paramount is trying to convince WBD shareholders that regulatory approval for a Netflix takeover could take 12 to 18 months, a timeline it describes as ‘unrealistic.’ The Financial Times reported that if WBD pulls out of its agreement with Netflix, it could face a $2.8 billion break fee.
Political scrutiny is adding further unpredictability. Donald Trump, United States president, said the Netflix-WBD deal “could be a problem” due to Netflix’s “very big market share,” though he also described Sarandos as ‘a great person.’
Paramount’s Ellison warned that a Netflix-controlled WBD would leave Hollywood with ‘no more competition.’
Whichever bidder prevails, or even if both deals stall, analysts say MultiChoice’s position is weakened. If regulators delay approvals, MultiChoice gains time but not stability, as global content trends move toward exclusivity and consolidation.
Sources say the company is now modelling every scenario, while considering pricing adjustments, bouquet simplification and a faster pivot toward local originals. Under Canal+ ownership, MultiChoice has already begun what insiders describe as a structural simplification of the business, but the success of those efforts depends on the premium-content spine now under threat.
The deeper reality, analysts argue, is that MultiChoice’s model assumed global studios would continue licensing content regionally. Hollywood is moving in the opposite direction. As one Johannesburg media consultant put it, “The world where DStv could simply buy HBO every three years is over. The model itself is expiring.”
For now, MultiChoice can only watch as WBD shareholders evaluate two competing global visions. Paramount’s tender offer closes on January 8, though extensions are expected as regulators, investors and governments weigh in.
What is clear is that decisions made in New York, Los Angeles, Washington and Riyadh will determine the future of millions of African households.
Whether Netflix or Paramount prevails, or whether both deals stall, MultiChoice is no longer negotiating from a position of strength. And the longer the uncertainty persists, the more vulnerable Africa’s largest pay-TV operator becomes.
As one South African analyst observed, “This is not about channels or bouquets. It is about whether MultiChoice can adapt to a world where the biggest content is simply not for sale anymore.”
Even if linear channels remain available through Discovery Global, the on-demand catalog could shift to Netflix starting January 1, 2026. Experts says this could reduce the appeal of DStv and Showmax, especially for titles that attract Nigerian and broader African viewers. MultiChoice relies on these imports to supplement local and sports content.
