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The catchphrase going into Tuesday’s coalition of the willing meeting on Ukraine in Paris appears to be: expect the unexpected.
That was clearly the vibe as leaders from the 30-or-so countries, including Prime Minister Mark Carney, gathered in the French capital.
While European leaders were trying to square the implications the U.S. military action in Venezuela will have on efforts to achieve a ceasefire in Ukraine, Carney was dealing with the political fallout of Chrystia Freeland’s acceptance of a role advising the Ukrainian government while still a sitting member of Parliament.
The former cabinet minister will be a special, unpaid economic adviser to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. She was Canada’s envoy to Ukraine for reconstruction but has resigned that position and will quit as an MP in the near future.
But, by far, the capture and planned prosecution of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores under U.S. law was the event that rattled European leaders on the eve of discussing specific security guarantees for Ukraine.
WATCH | Venezuela and Trump’s security strategy:
How Venezuela plays into Trump’s national security strategy
The capture of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces and President Donald Trump’s plan to reinvigorate the Venezuelan oil industry could be seen as a page out of his new national security strategy. CBC’s Eli Glasner breaks down the strategy’s goal to dominate the Western Hemisphere and what it could mean for Canada and the world.
Adding to that unease, U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated his desire to annex Greenland from Denmark in an interview with The Atlantic.
“I have to say this very directly to the United States: It makes absolutely no sense to talk about the need for the United States to take over Greenland,” Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said in response on social media.
“I would therefore strongly urge the United States to stop the threats against a historically close ally and against another country, and another people, who have said very clearly that they are not for sale.”
Trump told reporters on Air Force One that European leaders know the United States needs to have Greenland.
A number of Nordic nations, however, including Finland, have expressed support for Denmark retaining control of the Arctic territory.
A measured response
Carney is expected to meet separately with both Frederiksen and Finnish President Alexander Stubb on the sidelines of the Ukraine meeting.
But it’s unlikely European Union leaders will want to address the question of Venezuela directly over the next few days for fear of angering Trump and his delegates in Paris — and perhaps jeopardizing U.S. support for the coalition and Ukraine.
Carney adopted a measured response to Maduro’s arrest, noting Canada had not recognized Maduro’s “brutally oppressive and criminal regime” since the 2018 election which many in the international community say was stolen from the opposition.
Carney welcomed “the opportunity for freedom, democracy, peace and prosperity for the Venezuelan people,” who have the “sovereign right to decide and build their own future in a peaceful and democratic society.”
However, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told several American political shows on Sunday that a transition to democracy is on hold for the time being and that Washington will work with Maduro’s subordinates. He said the reality is that many of Venezuela’s opposition figures had fled the country and it will take time to re-establish their presence.
Both Trump and Rubio invoked the Monroe Doctrine — or the “Donroe Doctrine” as Trump is now calling it — which asserts that Washington has the right to exert its authority within the Western Hemisphere.
WATCH | UN Security Council on Maduro arrest:
UN Security Council largely condemns U.S. action against Maduro in Venezuela
The 15-member United Nations Security Council met at UN headquarters in New York just hours before Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro appeared in a Manhattan federal court on drug charges, including narco-terrorism conspiracy. Most member countries explicitly condemned the U.S. for its actions, and Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, in a statement read by UN political affairs chief Rosemary DiCarlo, said ‘I am deeply concerned about the possible intensification of instability in the country.’
Trump, in his remarks on Greenland, claimed that Russian and Chinese ships were surrounding the island territory.
Russia has used similar logic to justify the invasion of Ukraine.
Whether Trump’s actions in Venezuela, which has among the world’s largest proven reserves of oil, will embolden Moscow any further is an open question.
One U.S. defence expert said he believes there is momentum toward a ceasefire in Ukraine regardless of last weekend’s events.
“Russia has a reason to take a break from the fighting right now and retool its forces,” said Matt Schmidt, an associate professor and national security expert at the University of New Haven in Connecticut and a former instructor at the U.S. Army War College.
“It’s taken massive personnel losses and massive equipment losses it needs to replace. And that’s why it eventually needs to get to the table or win the war quickly.”
The coalition leaders hope to hammer out specific security guarantees for Ukraine that would deter Russia from simply using the ceasefire as a break.
The leaders will also focus on reconstruction.
