Galway West voters are streaming to the polls this morning Friday 22 May with data showing a frontrunner already.
While Fine Gael’s Seán Kyne has narrowly secured the top spot in terms of first preference intentions, the bookmakers are singing a completely different tune, backing a local Independent Ireland representative to ultimately take the seat.
According to the latest Ipsos data on first preference voting, Senator Seán Kyne is leading the pack with 17 per cent of likely voters pledging him their number one. Hot on his heels is Independent Ireland councillor Noel Thomas, who has captured an impressive 16 per cent of the first preference share.
The polling numbers highlight a massive battle for the seat, with Labour’s Helen Ogbu sitting in a strong third position at 12 per cent, followed by Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich of the Social Democrats at 9 per cent and Fianna Fáil’s Cillian Keane at 8 per cent.
However, despite Kyne holding the mathematical edge in the opinion poll, Boylesports have installed Noel Thomas as the odds-on favourite to win the bye-election.
The bookmaker currently prices the Independent Ireland candidate at 10/11 to claim the seat vacated by President Catherine Connolly, leaving Kyne as the second favourite at 6/5.
Boylesports odds before the polls opened on Friday 22 May 2026.
Candidate
Party
Odds
Chance
Noel Thomas
Independent Ireland
EVS
50%
Sean Kyne
Fine Gael
9/4
30.8%
Mide Nic Fhionnlaoich
Social Democrats
4/1
16.7%
Thomas Welby
Independent
9/1
10%
Helen Ogbu
Labour
12/1
7.7%
Cillian Keane
Fianna Fail
25/1
3.8%
Mark Lohan
Sinn Fein
25/1
3.8%
Mike Cubbard
Independent
33/1
2.9%
Niall Murphy
Green Party
100/1
1%
Orla Nugent
Aontu
100/1
1%
Sheila Garrity
Independent
200/1
0%
AJ Cahill
The Irish People
500/1
0.5%
Denman Rooke
People Before Profit
500/1
0.2%
Patrick Feeney
Independent
500/1
0.2%
Doran McMahon
Irish Freedom
500/1
0.2%
Analysts suggest that Thomas’s strong performance in the second preference polling, where he holds a distinct advantage among rural and non-party voters, makes him the more likely candidate to pull ahead once the transfer wheels start turning.
Further down the polling table, a tight scrap is emerging between the remaining progressive and independent candidates.
Non-party candidates Mike Cubbard and Thomas Welby are sitting alongside Sinn Féin’s Mark Lohan at 7 per cent and 6 per cent respectively, while the Green Party’s Niall Murphy tracks at 6 per cent.
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With the Tonn na Clé alliance heavily promoting transfer pacts among the left-leaning parties, candidates like Ogbu and Nic Fhionnlaoich could see significant boosts as the count progresses, though the bookies remain convinced that the final showdown will be a straight shootout between the top two.
Seán Kyne – Fine Gael.
The current leader of the Seanad will stand for Fine Gael in the forthcoming bye-election. Seán Kyne is the first person holding this office to hail from Galway after being appointed to the role in February 2025. Following his selection he said: “I am delighted to be selected by the party members in Galway West to contest the forthcoming by-election on behalf of Fine Gael.”
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Noel Thomas – Independent Ireland.
The former Fianna Fáil representative departed the party in 2024 after disciplinary proceedings when he claimed “The Inn is full” and declared Ireland should turn away any additional refugees following an arson attack at the Ross Lake House Hotel in Rosscahill, which had been designated to house 70 asylum seekers.
Thomas Welby – Independent.
Previously affiliated with Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats, Thomas Welby has operated as an independent since 2009. He achieved the highest vote in the Connemara electoral area during the 2009 local elections and replicated this success in the 2014 elections.
Sheila Garrity – Independent
Catherine Connolly’s former campaign manager, Sheila Garrity will also contest the election. Originally from Canada, Ms Garrity said of her decision to run: “In her [Catherine Connolly’s] absence, and not seeing that elsewhere on the landscape, I’ve decided to step forward.”
Mike Cubbard – Independent
The Mayor of Galway since June 2025, Mike Cubbard, is also listed on the ballot. He is currently serving his third term as mayor.
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Mark Lohan – Sinn Féin
Former city councillor and the chairperson of Sinn Féin’s Galway West branch, Mark Lohan, will appear on the ballot for Sinn Féin. He said that his current campaign will seek to deliver a “new progressive agenda for Galway”
Cillian Keane – Fianna Fáil
A councillor for the Athenry-Oranmore area, Cillian Keane became the 12th candidate when he was selected at the party’s convention in Salthill last month. Keane is the youngest candidate for the seat at just 25 years old. The 25 year old said: “I believe as someone young and energetic, I can offer a clear new voice for both Fianna Fáil and Galway West.”
Niall Murphy – Green Party
A former Galway City Councillor from 2020 to 2024, Niall Murphy also served as a board member of Leisureland and on the board of the University of Galway.
Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich – Social Democrats
A native Irish speaker, Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich told Galway Beo: “I want to be a strong principled voice fighting your corner in the Dáil and putting forward solutions on housing, healthcare, an Ghaeltacht, and cost of living that can make your lives better in Galway West.
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Orla Nugent – Aontú
A primary school teacher originally from Fermanagh, now residing in Terryland, Galway city. Following her selection, Orla Nugent said: “The upcoming by-election presents a unique opportunity for the voters of Galway city and Connemara to tell the government that enough is enough.”
Helen Ogbu – Labour
Born and raised in Nigeria, Helen Ogbu became the first person of colour to serve on Galway City Council. She has dedicated many years to working at the Galway Volunteer Centre and has served as Chair of the Galway Refugee Support Group.
Denman Rooke – People Before Profit
Following his selection, Denman Rooke, PBP candidate said: “Galway West, like so many other places in the country, faces a severe affordability and housing crisis as a result of successive Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil governments prioritising the profits of developers and landlords over the needs of working people.
AJ Cahill – Irish People Party
AJ Cahill serves as leader of the Irish People Party. He stood in the 2024 General Election in Galway West, garnering nearly 500 first preference votes.
Michael Ryan – Independent
Michael Ryan, widely recognised on TikTok as ‘Legal Eagle’, has announced his intention to enter the race. Mr Ryan, a Westside native, holds a law degree from University of Galway. This will mark his first foray into politics. His TikTok page boasts 14,000 followers.
John O’Leary – Independent
John O’Leary will contest both the Galway West and Dublin Central bye-elections. He stood in seven constituencies simultaneously during the last general election, accumulating 324 first-preference votes across all of them.
Patrick Feeney – Independent
Patrick Feeney stood in both the 2019 and 2024 elections. He notoriously received just one singular vote in the 2019 election. He has also previously sought nominations to contest the presidential election.
Néill Bairéad – Independent
Néill Bairéad is a teacher from Mionlach.
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