The Brazilian government signaled it intends to seek compensation from China for the imposition of safeguard measures on imported beef. One possibility to be negotiated with Chinese authorities is the opening of another market for Brazil, such as access for beef offal and pork offal.
The signal was given by Luis Rua, the secretary for Trade and International Relations at the Agriculture Ministry (MAPA), shortly after China confirmed on Wednesday (31) the imposition of an additional 55% tariff on beef imports, along with a quota for Brazil taxed at 12% for up to 1.106 million metric tonnes (about 1.22 million short tonnes). The safeguards took effect on Thursday (Jan. 1) and will remain in place for three years.
“There is a possibility the Chinese will offer some kind of compensation,” Rua said. “They could grant the opening of a market—for example, markets for beef offal and pork offal. That could be a way to work toward opening these markets.”
In a statement, the ministries of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC), Foreign Affairs (MRE), and Agriculture said the government is acting “in coordination with the private sector” and will remain in dialogue with Chinese authorities, both bilaterally and at the World Trade Organization (WTO). The goal, they said, is to mitigate the effects of the safeguard measures.
Agriculture Minister Carlos Fávaro downplayed the impact of the measure on the sector and said that “the relationship between Brazil and China has never been better—and it will remain that way.”
Behind the scenes, however, private-sector members are already discussing the possibility that the congressional agribusiness caucus (FPA) could pressure the government to apply Brazil’s Economic Reciprocity Law against China. One option, a source said, would be to create import quotas for Chinese electric vehicles.
China is currently the largest destination for Brazilian beef exports. In 2025, Chinese imports of Brazilian beef totaled 1.7 million metric tonnes, representing 48.3% of Brazil’s export volume, according to the Brazilian Beef Exporters Association (ABIEC). That volume is about 500,000 metric tonnes higher than the new quota.
The sector could forgo about $3 billion in exports under the new tariff, according to Paulo Mustafaga, president of the Brazilian Association of Meatpacking Plants (Abrafrigo).
The government now wants to hold talks with China to assess the possibility of Brazil filling quotas allocated to countries that fail to meet their export targets. China also set quotas for Uruguay, Australia, New Zealand, and the United States. “The United States didn’t export to China last year,” Fávaro said, by way of example.
Brazilian authorities will also ask China to count shipments already in international waters toward the quota, Rua said.
As Valor reported on Dec. 26, roughly 300,000 metric tonnes of beef had already been sold and were in transit, with arrival in China scheduled around the turn of the year. That would leave just over 700,000 metric tonnes available for negotiation, excluding the additional tariff.
Rua emphasized that Brazil has access to more than 150 export markets for beef and has opened seven new markets since the sweeping U.S. tariffs, giving the country, he said, the ability to redirect some of the shipments that would have gone to China to other destinations.
“After the tariff shock, we opened seven markets, including the Philippines and Indonesia—both for bone-in beef and offal—which have a profile similar to the Chinese market and allow for shipments to be reallocated. We recently entered the Guatemala market. That helps minimize this reduction of 500,000 metric tonnes that will no longer be able to be sent to China,” he said.
One concern in the industry involves how the quotas will be allocated. There are questions about which country will be responsible for distributing the quotas and what criteria will be used. “It could be a criterion that, for example, favors large groups. And it has to be an equitable criterion,” said the head of Abrafrigo.
According to industry sources, a meeting between government officials and ABIEC is scheduled for next week in São Paulo to assess how the quotas will be implemented.
The most immediate effect is expected to be a decline in prices paid to ranchers, along with a cap on the expected rise in domestic beef prices this year. “The [consumer] price may not fall, but perhaps it won’t rise as much as it would have if we were exporting the same volume,” Mustafaga said.
According to Fernando Iglesias, markets coordinator at Safras & Mercado, the measure limits the sector’s expansion and changes the pricing dynamics in the domestic market. “In an initial analysis, it’s a bearish scenario,” he said.
For Oswaldo Ribeiro Júnior, president of the Mato Grosso Cattle Ranchers Association (Acrimat), the impact will be limited in the short term. “I believe there will be an initial impact in the first few months, but with a quick return to previous levels. For ranchers, the impact should be immediate here, with prices per arroba (about 33 pounds) stagnating, unfortunately,” he said.
(Rafael Walendorff in Brasília and Camila Souza Ramos in São Paulo contributed to this report.)
Translation: Melissa Harkin, CT
