Welcome to The Athletic’s daily World Cup Predictions.
This article gives you the lowdown on all today’s games but with the bonus of some friendly competition…
Throughout the tournament, we will have two Athletic writers (Andy Jones or Elias Burke — with help from our experts from each of the 48 countries) pitting our soccer knowledge against a different Athletic subscriber each day and ‘Algo’, the shiny new algorithm from The Athletic, which is making its computerised debut during the 2026 World Cup.
Oh, and a dog called Stanley and a six-year-old called Wilfred (who some of you may remember from last season’s Premier League predictions).
Our guest subscriber today is Nathaniel, from the U.S., who supports the USMNT, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Seattle Sounders. Good luck, Nathaniel!
If you would like to apply to be our guest subscriber for a day during this tournament, please follow the instructions in the article here.
What happened on Matchday 23?
On paper, Australia-Egypt was the most evenly matched tie of the World Cup, with FIFA’s pre-tournament No 27-ranked side meeting No 29. It should probably come as no surprise, then, that there was nothing to split them after regular time, with Emam Ashour having put Egypt ahead before Mohamed Hany’s own goal levelled the scores in the second half.
As the extra time clock ticked down towards penalties, Australia coach Tony Popovic made the bold move to replace starting goalkeeper Pat Beach with the experienced Mat Ryan. Whether Ryan was considered a technically superior goalkeeper in shootouts, or Popovic was just trying to mess with Egypt’s heads, the switch had no positive effect. Egypt were perfect from the spot, converting all four attempts, enough to progress after Australia missed twice, giving Algo and the experts a strong start.
Mat Ryan comes on for Patrick Beach (Stefan Koops via Getty Images)
If the first tie of the day was the most even, the next, in theory, should have been the most imbalanced. Argentina started the tournament as the No 1 team in the world, while World Cup debutants Cape Verde sat way down in 67th. But if this was supposed to be a walk in the park, goalkeeper Vozinha and his Cape Verde team-mates did not get the memo.
Results from July 3, 2026
Lionel Messi put Argentina in front with a brilliantly taken goal in the first half, but Deroy Duarte shocked the world by levelling the scores in the second half. Cape Verde hung on to a 1-1 draw in regular time, but it took just two minutes of extra time before Lisandro Martinez fired the world champions ahead, ending any chance of the greatest World Cup upset ever… until! Cape Verde’s star, Sidny Lopes Cabral, scored a goal-of-the-tournament contender in the 103rd minute, spectacularly curling past Emiliano Martinez from an improbable angle.
But Cristian Romero, with some help from the arm of Cape Verde centre-back Diney, had the last laugh, heading past Vozinha in the 111th minute to finally kill the game off. No surprise Stanley was the only one to back Cape Verde, and it was so nearly the unbeatable call of the tournament.
Following that was an impossible task for Colombia and Ghana, and the South Americans progressed with a 1-0 win. Ex-Wolverhampton Wanderers forward Jhon Arias scored the only goal in the 14th minute. Bayern Munich forward Luis Diaz, formerly of Liverpool, was inspired. A clean sweep of correct calls for all of us at Predictions HQ on that one, leaving Algo ahead of the experts by one on the leaderboard, as its ominous 13-game winning streak continues.
Overall
accuracyCorrect
picksBest
streakThe algorithm68%6013TA experts67%5911Wilfred (age 6)65%577Reader picks61%545Stanley the dog39%344
How do the predictions work?
It’s pretty simple: we will give you some background on each game, players to watch and facts on the two teams. Then we will predict the outcome.
We will maintain a leaderboard of how everyone gets on with their predictions (ranked by the percentage they get correct) but we’ll also keep a record of “streaks” — the number of predictions everyone gets right in a row. These streaks also form a crucial part of The Athletic’s interactive Soccer Pick’ems feature, allowing you to make your own picks every round as well.
So come along and get involved, and check back each day to see how we are getting on in the leaderboard — and probably more importantly, whether you, the subscribers, or Stanley or Wilfred are beating us.
Or, worst of all, whether ‘Algo’ can prove data and statistics know all when it comes to predicting.
Good luck, and enjoy!
Predictions for Matchday 24 and 25
Canada vs Morocco, Round of 16, kick-off 1pm ET, 6pm BST
Where to watch: FOX (U.S.), ITV (UK)
Streak Risk Factor: 3/5. While they won’t be playing on home soil, Canada will be well-supported in Houston. Can they frustrate a favoured Morocco side?
Watch Rating: 3/5. Few would describe it as the standout fixture of the last 16, but at this stage of the tournament, every game is worth watching.
The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “It has been a strange tournament for Jesse Marsch’s side. The 6-0 win over Qatar will be remembered for its significance as their first, and for its sheer dominance, but they failed to convince in their opening 1-1 draw with Bosnia and Herzegovina and against South Africa, where a second-half added-time winner by Stephen Eustaquio proved the difference in a 1-0 win.
“The co-hosts were boosted by the return of Alphonso Davies in that game, who did not look entirely fit but showed his class in a second-half cameo from the bench. Judging from that brief outing, this fixture may come too soon for the 25-year-old to start, but Marsch will be hoping his side can hang around for long enough for Davies to make an impact as a substitute.
Alphonso Davies and Stephen Eustaquio during the win against South Africa (Fran Santiago/Getty Images)
“Morocco will hope to have the tie sealed by the time Davies enters the pitch, having needed 120 minutes plus penalties to eliminate the Netherlands in the last round. Achraf Hakimi and company have plenty of experience with going the distance, having knocked out Spain in 2022, but they should have enough to progress into the last eight in regular time here. Watch out for striker Ismael Saibari, who will want to add to his three goals so far to impress his new employers, Bayern Munich.”
The Athletic Soccer Experts: MOROCCO WIN
Guest Subscriber Nathaniel: MOROCCO WIN
Six-year-old Wilfred: MOROCCO WIN
Stanley the dog: MOROCCO WIN
Algo: MOROCCO WIN
Paraguay vs France, Round of 16, kick-off 5pm ET, 10pm BST
Where to watch: FOX (U.S.), BBC (UK)
Streak Risk Factor: 1/5. Famous last words: Paraguay have a near-zero chance of beating France, who have been by far the most impressive team at the tournament.
Watch Rating: 3/5. We don’t anticipate much competition, but it’s another two years before we can see France’s front four together in a major tournament, so enjoy them while you can.
The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “Paraguay served up one of the World Cup’s great underdog upsets in the round of 32, knocking out four-time winners Germany on penalties. Unfortunately, lightning rarely strikes twice at the World Cup, and they’re facing a far more formidable side in France.
Kylian Mbappe celebrates his second, and France’s third, goal against Sweden (Al Bello/Getty Images)
“It feels as though Didier Deschamps’ side has not kicked out of second gear, and yet they are the most impressive and coherent attacking unit the World Cup has seen in a long time. Kylian Mbappe has his sights set on the Golden Boot as he steps closer to realising the genuine prospect that he may one day be recognised as the World Cup’s greatest-ever player. With Michael Olise, who already has five assists, setting him up, there’s no telling what levels France can reach this summer and beyond.”
The Athletic Soccer Experts: FRANCE WIN
Guest Subscriber Nathaniel: FRANCE WIN
Six-year-old Wilfred: FRANCE WIN
Stanley the dog: FRANCE WIN
Algo: FRANCE WIN
Our picks for July 4, 2026
Brazil vs Norway, Round of 16, kick-off 4pm ET, 9pm BST
Where to watch: FOX (U.S.), ITV (UK)
Streak Risk Factor: 4/5. Brazil were slow out of the blocks against Japan, and Norway have the attacking talent to punish a similarly sluggish start.
Watch Rating: 5/5. We’re very excited about this one at Predictions HQ — plenty of attacking talent with just enough defensive fragility to bring out the best in them.
The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “Brazil seemed to find their stride in the 3-0 win over Scotland in their final group game, but regressed in the first half of their last-16 tie against Japan, where they were outrun and outplayed. Brazil were much improved in the second period, though Japan appeared slightly overawed by the prospect of such a result against the five-time champions, and they must stay closer to that level if they are to overcome an impressive Norway side.
“Norway progressed through the groups at a canter. Their last-32 tie against Ivory Coast was among the most evenly matched of the round, and they battled well against a very competitive opponent, with Haaland netting his fifth of the tournament to win the game and stay in the Golden Boot race.
Erling Haaland after securing Norway’s 2-1 win against Ivory Coast (Julian Finney/FIFA via Getty Images)
“While you would be hard-pressed to find a more accomplished trio in defence than Gabriel, Marquinhos and Alisson, Brazil are not as formidable as one might expect, and Haaland will undoubtedly prove another strong test of their solidity. But the same can be said for Norway, who had trouble handling Amad once he was introduced from the bench in the second half against Ivory Coast.”
The Athletic Soccer Experts: BRAZIL WIN
Guest Subscriber Nathaniel: NORWAY WIN
Six-year-old Wilfred: BRAZIL WIN
Stanley the dog: BRAZIL WIN
Algo: BRAZIL WIN
Our picks for July 5, 2026
Mexico vs England, Round of 16, kick-off 8pm ET, 1am BST
Where to watch: FOX (U.S.), BBC (UK)
Streak Risk Factor: 4/5. England are significantly more talented than Mexico, but playing in front of a home crowd at the Mexico City stadium at high altitude is a big advantage for the co-hosts.
Watch Rating: 5/5. The sights of the Azteca. The roar of the crowd. A knockout tie between two proud footballing nations with great tradition is what the World Cup is all about.
The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “The only thing that truly matters in knockout football is making it into the next round, but Thomas Tuchel will undoubtedly be concerned with how England have performed. Aside from a brilliant 20 minutes at the start of the second half in their opening 4-2 win over Croatia, Tuchel’s side have looked disjointed in defence and overreliant on the brilliance of Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham in attack.
“On Wednesday, it was all about Kane, the England captain, who netted his 71st and 72nd goals of the season for club and country to save his team from an early elimination, beating the Democratic Republic of Congo 2-1 after going behind early.
“For England to reach the latter stages of the tournament, the rest of Tuchel’s attacking options must step up. Could this be the game where Bukayo Saka, who looked lively in his second-half cameo, arrives at the tournament? Or Anthony Gordon, who has started the last two matches on the bench but assisted both Kane’s goals after entering the pitch on the hour mark.
Are England over-reliant on Harry Kane? He scored a late winner against DR Congo (Zhang Chen/Xinhua via Getty Images)
“But they may face their stiffest challenge yet against a Mexico side in red-hot form. The co-hosts have scored eight goals without response, and have won all four of their matches. Julian Quinones has been a revelation on the left wing, while Raul Jimenez is in good form in front of goal, netting twice from three appearances. The omens are not great for England, as Mexico have lost only two competitive matches at the Azteca in 57 years, winning 70 times, though most of those victories have come against comparatively weaker Central and North American opposition.
“Part of that is the natural advantage of playing at home in front of a passionate crowd, but the other trickier aspect is the altitude. England will not have time to acclimate to the conditions, with the Azteca sitting 2,240m (7,220ft) above sea level.
“Tuchel spoke a lot pre-tournament about developing a game plan to be effective in the heat, but time will tell whether he has something up his sleeve for the… height.”
The Athletic Soccer Experts: ENGLAND WIN
Guest Subscriber Nathaniel: MEXICO WIN
Six-year-old Wilfred: ENGLAND WIN
Stanley the dog: MEXICO WIN
Algo: ENGLAND WIN
