In 2023 Robertson secured the top job and, with it, the intensive expectation and pressures over Joseph. Four years earlier Ian Foster was preferred over Robertson. And in 2011, Steve Hansen earned promotion from long-serving All Blacks assistant ahead of Cotter.
This time around, Joseph was marked by many as the clear front-runner to assume Robertson’s post after leading the All Blacks XV to Europe last year and returning home to coach the Highlanders.
Drill a little deeper, though, and Rennie should be the preferred option.
From Wellington to Manawatū, the Chiefs, Glasgow, the Wallabies and Kobe in Japan, Rennie’s impact on every team he’s coached is widely evident.
His CV features a proven track record – and is accompanied by playing and coaching support from those he’s worked with.
Rennie’s rise started by delivering Wellington their first provincial title in 14 years. He then guided Manawatū from bottom of the table to the Championship final in 2011, and he led the New Zealand under 20s to three unbeaten World Cups – winning 15 straight matches.
Rennie assumed charge of the Chiefs in 2012, alongside the influential Wayne Smith and Tom Coventry. He immediately rebuilt a squad that finished 11th and 10th their previous two years, recruiting the likes of Aaron Cruden, Ben Tameifuna, Brodie Retallick and Sonny Bill Williams.
While those were headline figures, Rennie trawled through data to prioritise his Chiefs squad on workers and those he identified through the national 20s as possessing strong character.
One of Rennie’s great strengths is his ability to foster an inclusive culture and connection with players and coaches – many of those remaining prevalent. His success at the Chiefs was first and foremost predicated on taking the Chiefs back to their roots by rekindling meaning with their wider region through Māoritanga.
Rennie and Smith had their squad hitchhike from Hamilton to Ōhope to connect with their local communities. They also ensured players had skin in their home by knocking down walls, sanding and painting their training base at Ruakura.
Through this process, Rennie gained all-important buy-in across the board. The Chiefs knew who they represented, who they were playing for. The result was successive Super Rugby titles in Rennie’s first and second seasons at the helm.
After the Chiefs, where Rennie finished with a 66.7% win rate (71 from 106 matches), second only to Clayton McMillan, he led Glasgow to No 1 in Pro 14 for two years running.
Glasgow lost the 2019 Pro 14 final to Irish powerhouse Leinster, a club with a significantly larger budget and depth, in Rennie’s final season before he joined the Wallabies.
Speaking at the Wairarapa Bush rugby sports award function, Graham Henry bemoaned NZ Rugby letting Rennie go to the Wallabies, stating he should instead have been All Blacks coach.
On the face of it, Rennie endured a difficult time in Australia. He finished with a 38.2% win record after his tenure was brutally cut short by former Rugby Australia chairman Hamish McLennan in his blind desperation to hire Eddie Jones.
Rennie’s Wallabies did, however, defeat Rassie Erasmus’ Springboks in three of their four tests.
Despite their struggles for results, many senior Wallabies publicly voiced their frustration with Rennie’s ousting to indicate strong support among their playing group.
Under Jones, the Wallabies bombed out in the 2023 World Cup pool stages for the first time and, in a clear pointer to failed decision-making, he finished with a 22% win rate from his ill-fated return.
Schmidt has been widely credited for vastly improving the Wallabies in the last two years after presiding over one memorable win in South Africa and a highly competitive British and Irish Lions series in Australia.
Schmidt, though, ultimately boasts a 39.2% win rate which includes 14.2% success against the world’s top four teams, to underline how difficult it is to generate consistent results with the Wallabies.
Results aside, Rennie is widely regarded by many leading players as a genuine, fair leader with a strong rugby IQ. His experience outside the professional rugby realm as a teacher and publican also provides valuable life perspective.
Rennie finishes his four-year stint with Japanese club Kobe in May – and is this year coaching All Blacks Ardie Savea, Anton Lienert Brown and Brodie Retallick.
Joseph’s extensive coaching experience with Wellington, the Highlanders, whom he guided to their sole Super Rugby title in 2015, New Zealand Māori and Japan presents an alternative proposition.
While Joseph was the early favourite to land the All Blacks head coach role, Brown’s commitment to the Springboks is a significant blow as he brings world-renowned attacking creativity and a contrasting, softer approach.
Joseph is a strong, uncompromising, authoritative personality.
Maybe the All Blacks would benefit from such a direct figurehead but there could also be concern at the list of assistant coaches, including Kendrick Lynn (now Pumas attack coach), Tom Donnelly (Wallabies lineout), Dave Dillon and Riki Flutey, who have departed his ranks in recent times.
Some players also struggle with Joseph’s penchant for heavy, old school, physical training loads.
Former Springboks captain Victor Matfield, who joined Eddie Jones’ Japanese coaching team following Joseph’s exit after the last World Cup, offered this recent view.
“One thing I must say from the Japanese players, they weren’t too happy with Jamie Joseph at the end. Why that is, it sounded like he was very strict and very set in his ways. But he understands the New Zealand culture. He played, he looks like a rugby man, so it will be interesting.”
Wellington-born Japanese lock Warner Dearns, who will this season play for the Hurricanes, made his test debut in the final two years of Joseph’s Japan tenure.
“I think he would suit [it] to a degree,” Dearns said this week when questioned about Joseph’s style. “I, as a young fellow in his system, had a bit of a tough time but, I know that he has the sort of the players’ best interests.
“The way he coaches is very old school but it’s very effective if the players buy into it. And yeah he demands a physicality, he demands a standard of play which if the All Blacks had I mean they’d definitely be a tough forward pack to play against especially with Jamie trying to get that sort of physicality out of them.”
Joseph built his success at the Highlanders on recruiting talent and extracting the best from those fringe prospects which culminated in their 2015 underdog triumph.
The Highlanders have long struggled to consistently compete with other New Zealand franchises for recruitment and resources which adds context to Joseph’s 49.5% win rate (57 of 115 matches) with the southerners.
Joseph’s initial return to Dunedin, however, didn’t deliver an instant bump as the Highlanders finished last year with three wins and 11 losses.
At test level Joseph guided Japan to their first World Cup quarterfinal appearance in 2019 after topping their pool with notable wins against Ireland and Scotland.
After that success most of Joseph’s 45% win rate (23 victories from 51 attempts) with Japan stems from victories against tier two nations – Uruguay, South Korea, Hong Kong, Georgia, Romania, Tonga, Russia, USA, Samoa, Portugal and Chile.
Joseph (forwards) and Rennie (attack) have been proposed as a possible coaching partnership for the All Blacks. Insiders, however, suggest that scenario is unlikely to eventuate.
At this stage, Rennie is yet to formally apply to lead the All Blacks but NZ Rugby, led by chairman David Kirk, should do everything in its power to entice him home.
No coach is without flaws, and no one coach can be expected to immediately remedy the All Blacks, but in a head-to-head choice, Rennie is the compelling candidate.
Dave Rennie coaching record:
Chiefs:
66.7% win percentage (71 of 106 matches)
Highest win rate against SA teams
Successive titles with a team that finished 11th and 10th previous two years
NZ under-20s:
Won 15 out of 15 matches
Won three World Cups
Glasgow Warriors:
65% win rate in two seasons
Finished No. 1 in the league in both seasons
Lost 2019 final to Leinster
Wallabies:
Overall win percentage: 38.2%
34.3% vs top 8 teams
33.3% vs top 4 teams
Defeated World Cup winning Springboks team in three out of four tests
Jamie Joseph coaching record:
Highlanders:
49.5% win percentage (57 of 115 matches)
2025 season: 3 wins, 11 losses
Japan:
45% win percentage (23 of 51 matches – 21 of those against tier two nations)
All Blacks XV on 2025 tour:
3/3
Beat the Barbarians (33-19), England A (31-14) and Uruguay (45-21)
Liam Napier is a Senior Sports Journalist and Rugby Correspondent for the New Zealand Herald. He is a co-host of the Rugby Direct podcast.
