1 Japan and Australia refuse Trump’s Hormuz naval coalition call — PM Takaichi says “no decisions whatsoever” about dispatching escort ships; Brent above $104; South Korea “carefully deliberating”; IRGC says strait is “not blocked, merely under control” — Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said on Monday that Tokyo has made “no decisions whatsoever about dispatching escort ships” to the Middle East after President Trump called on China, France, Japan, South Korea, the UK and others to send warships to keep the Strait of Hormuz “open and safe”; Australia also confirmed it would not send naval forces; South Korea’s government said it had received a request and was “carefully deliberating a response”; China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said Beijing is “in communication with various parties” and called on all sides to “immediately stop military operations”; the IRGC’s naval commander Alireza Tangsiri responded that the strait “has not been militarily blocked and is merely under control”; Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told CBS that Tehran has been “approached by a number of countries” seeking safe passage for their vessels; Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that he had demanded “about seven countries” join the coalition but declined to name them; the Wall Street Journal reported the administration plans to announce the coalition as early as this week; Brent crude opened above $104.50 on Monday, up more than 40% since the conflict began on February 28; at least 10 oil tankers have been hit or attacked since the war started according to UK Maritime Trade Operations data; IEA updated its emergency release to nearly 412 million barrels with Asian members releasing stocks “immediately”
2 US-China Paris talks produce “remarkably stable” framework ahead of Trump-Xi summit — Bessent and He Lifeng met for six hours at OECD headquarters; China open to purchasing US agriculture, Boeing jets, coal, oil and gas; proposed “Board of Trade” and “Board of Investment” mechanisms — US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng held “remarkably stable” talks at OECD headquarters in Paris on Sunday, touching on agriculture, critical minerals and managed trade ahead of Trump’s expected state visit to Beijing from March 31 to April 2; sources told Reuters and CNBC that the Chinese side showed openness to purchasing US poultry, beef and non-soybean row crops; Bessent also pushed for Chinese purchases of Boeing jetliners and US coal, oil and natural gas; the two sides discussed new formal mechanisms — a proposed “Board of Trade” and “Board of Investment” — to manage bilateral commerce; technical talks on both proposals continued Monday; Wang Yi said last week it would be a “big year” for China-US relations; however, Trump told the Financial Times he could delay the Beijing summit if China does not help unblock the Strait of Hormuz, through which China receives 45% of its oil; Xinhua called for “meaningful progress” in economic cooperation to restore confidence; trade analysts cautioned that with Washington focused on the Iran war, prospects for major breakthroughs were limited; the meetings follow a series of Bessent-He encounters in Geneva, London, Stockholm, Madrid and Kuala Lumpur over the past year
3 India secures Hormuz passage via direct diplomacy with Iran — two Indian-flagged gas tankers transit Saturday; Jaishankar tells FT “my talking has yielded some results”; Tehran says it is “open” to countries seeking safe passage — India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar told the Financial Times that negotiations between New Delhi and Tehran had allowed two Indian-flagged gas tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday — the most concrete result of any bilateral diplomatic effort since the war began; “I am at the moment engaged in talking to them, and my talking has yielded some results. This is ongoing,” Jaishankar said; a Liberia-flagged tanker carrying Saudi crude to India via the strait also arrived at Mumbai Port on March 12 after transiting without electronic navigational equipment; Jaishankar spoke ahead of attendance at a meeting where he was expected to discuss the crisis further; France and Italy are among European countries that have separately opened diplomatic channels with Tehran about allowing energy shipments to restart; Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi told CBS that Tehran is “open” to discussing safe passage; the Indian approach stands in sharp contrast to Trump’s demand for a military coalition — New Delhi is pursuing diplomacy rather than risking being drawn into the conflict; India imports approximately 85% of its crude oil needs and the Hormuz chokepoint is critical to its energy security
4 Vietnam braces for flight cuts from April after China and Thailand ban jet fuel exports — Jet A-1 tripled from ~$85/bbl to $231/bbl since February; Vietnam imports 70% of aviation fuel; airlines warn of losses on every flight; CAAV proposes emergency tax waivers — Vietnamese authorities warned the aviation industry to prepare for potential flight reductions from April after China and Thailand halted exports of jet fuel due to the Iran war; the Civil Aviation Authority of Vietnam (CAAV) said Jet A-1 aviation fuel prices in the Singapore market surged from approximately $83–89 per barrel in January–February to $231.42 per barrel in early March — nearly tripling in two weeks; Vietnam imports about 70% of its aviation fuel demand, with more than 60% sourced from Thailand and China; fuel suppliers Skypec and Petrolimex Aviation indicated current supply is sufficient only through end of March; Vietnam Airlines warned that if jet fuel remains between $200 (~$200) and $230 (~$230) per barrel, operating costs could increase by 30–60% per month, with executives estimating the airline could lose money on every flight; routes between Vietnam and Europe are being rerouted away from restricted Middle Eastern airspace, adding flight time and fuel burn; CAAV proposed waiving environmental protection tax on aviation fuel, reducing VAT, and allowing flexible fuel surcharges on domestic tickets; Singapore gasoil prices have risen 57% and jet fuel prices have more than doubled at +114% since late February
5 China economic data beats expectations but property crisis deepens — factory output +6.0% y/y; retail sales +2.8% (beating 2.5% forecast); exports surged 21.8% Jan–Feb; but new home prices fell 3.2% y/y, steepest in eight months; GDP target lowered to 4.5–5% — China’s economy showed a stronger-than-expected start to 2026 with industrial production rising 6.0% year-on-year and retail sales gaining 2.8% in the January–February period, beating the 2.5% consensus forecast; consumption was buoyed by Lunar New Year spending on tobacco, alcohol, gold and jewellery; exports surged 21.8% in dollar terms, far exceeding the 7.1% forecast, driven by integrated circuits and technology shipments; however, the property sector continued its prolonged decline: new home prices across 70 major cities fell 3.2% year-on-year in February — the steepest drop in eight months — and property investment declined 11.1%; a Reuters poll on Friday forecast prices would fall faster than previously expected before stabilising in 2027; Premier Li Qiang announced a GDP growth target of 4.5–5% for 2026, down from last year’s 5%; urban unemployment rose to 5.3% in the first two months from the 2025 average of 5.2%; analysts at CNBC noted China may be more insulated from the Hormuz closure than other Asian economies, holding an estimated 1.2 billion barrels of onshore crude stockpiles — sufficient for three to four months — with seaborne Hormuz oil accounting for less than half of total imports
