Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll Result 2026 LIVE Updates: The exit polls for Tamil Nadu’s high-stakes Assembly election are being released, giving projections of seats and voting percentages among the DMK-led alliance, the AIADMK, Seeman-led NTK, and actor Vijay’s TVK.
Polling was held across Tamil Nadu on April 23 for all 234 Assembly seats, with over 4,000 candidates contesting. The state recorded a voter turnout of 84.6 per cent, the highest since the 1952 elections.
Story continues below this ad
The total electorate stood at around 5.73 crore, including over 2.93 crore women and 2.83 crore men. Third-gender voters accounted for about 7,728.
2021 exit poll accuracy: In 2021, exit polls predicted that the DMK would unseat the then-ruling AIADMK. While three surveys estimated that the DMK would win between 143 and 152 seats, several others overestimated the party’s performance, with India Today-Axis My India projecting as many as 175 to 195 seats.
Key Contenders: The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led alliance and the opposition All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam front are the key players in the Tamil Nadu elections, alongside other parties.
The DMK has projected Udhayanidhi Stalin as the face of the next generation in these elections. The party has fielded several new faces, especially in the constituencies it lost in 2021. It has announced a total of 164 candidates out of 234 constituencies.
The DMK-led alliance includes DMDK, led by Premalatha Vijayakanth, which has been allotted 10 seats.
The AIADMK is contesting 172 seats, while the AMMK, led by TTV Dhinakaran, is contesting 11 seats. The BJP has been allotted 33 seats, while the PMK is divided between rival factions.
While the BJP and Makkal Needhi Maiam are attempting to win over DMK’s stronghold in Chennai, the AIADMK’s win in the western belt remain crucial.
Past trends: With power alternating between the DMK and AIADMK, Tamil Nadu has witnessed the dominance of Dravidian politics for the past 37 years. The entry of actor-turned-politician Vijay and his party TVK has gained traction in the state’s political landscape.
Some of the key candidates include Chief Minister and DMK leader MK Stalin from Kolathur, Edappadi K Palaniswami from Edappadi, TVK president Vijay from Perambur and Tiruchirappalli (East), and NTK leader Seeman from Karaikudi.
Tamil Nadu Assembly Election 2026
Exit Polls Releasing
Tamil Nadu election exit poll 2026 Battle for Tamil Nadu 234 seats · 118 for majority · Results: May 4, 2026
Voting ✓ Apr 23 Single phase · 234 seats
Exit Polls ● Apr 29 Releasing at 6:30 PM IST
Counting May 4 Results declared
DMK+ MK Stalin
AIADMK Edappadi K Palaniswami
TVK Vijay (Thalapathy)
NTK Seeman
01 Overview 02 2021 Exit Polls 03 2021 Results 04 Key Issues
Key Numbers
234 Total Seats 118 for majority
85.10% Voter Turnout Highest since Independence
4,023 Candidates Across 234 seats
Contesting Alliances
DMK+ Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA) ▸ MK Stalin Incumbent · Welfare schemes · Anti-Hindi imposition · Dravidian identity · Udhayanidhi Stalin factor 2021: 159 seats (DMK: 133)
AIADMK All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam ▸ Edappadi K. Palaniswami (EPS) Principal opposition · Anti-incumbency · OPS faction lost to DMK · BJP+PMK allies 2021: 66 seats (AIADMK+ total: 75)
TVK Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam ▸ Vijay (Thalapathy) Electoral debut · All 234 seats solo · Youth vote · Anti-corruption · Star power wildcard 2021: — (did not exist)
NTK Naam Tamilar Katchi ▸ Seeman (from Karaikudi) Tamil nationalist · Contesting solo · Anti-federal politics · Consistent vote-splitter 2021: 0 seats
2021 Exit Polls — Seat Projections (234 seats)
⏳ 2026 Exit Polls: Releasing at 6:30 PM IST, April 29
Under ECI Section 126A embargo until all state voting concludes. This tab shows how 2021 exit polls fared vs actual results — a key context for reading today’s projections.
Axis My India DMK+ 175–195 · AIADMK+ 38–54
Today’s Chanakya DMK+ 164–186 · AIADMK+ 46–68
ABP Ananda-CVoter DMK+ 160–175 · approx
Poll of Polls Average AVG
118 — MAJORITY MARK DMK+ avg +57 above
Actual Result (May 2, 2021) FINAL
⚠️
Polls got direction right, margin wrong in 2021
Poll avg gave DMK+ 175, actual was 159 (−16). AIADMK+ was projected at 55 but won 75 (+20). All agencies correctly predicted a DMK win — but overstated the landslide.
⚠️ WHY IT MATTERS FOR 2026:
TVK (Vijay) is contesting all 234 seats for the first time with zero historical data. Every 2026 exit poll is modelling unknown territory — vote transfer patterns from TVK are uncharted. Treat single-agency numbers with extra caution.
2021 Assembly Election — Final Results
AIADMK+ EPS / Palaniswami
2021 Result Cards
DMK+ MK Stalin (Kolathur)
159 Seats
~47% Vote share
✓ Won majority
AIADMK+ EPS (Edappadi)
▼ 134 → 66 seats
NTK Seeman
0 seats, strong base
Campaign Battlegrounds
🎬 Wildcard TVK — Vijay’s Electoral Debut Actor-politician Vijay contests all 234 seats in TVK’s first election. No historical vote data makes him the biggest unknown — a spoiler for both DMK and AIADMK, or a washout?
✂️ AIADMK AIADMK Split — OPS Joins DMK O. Panneerselvam and Ayyappan resigned from AIADMK and joined DMK in Feb 2026, weakening EPS. The party also lost Sengottaiyan (now TVK) and Manoj Pandian.
💰 Governance DMK’s Welfare vs Anti-Incumbency Kalaignar Magalir Urimai (₹1,000/month for women) anchors DMK’s campaign. Opposition counters with corruption allegations, sand mining scandals, and youth unemployment.
🗳️ Electoral Delimitation — Centre vs States The DMK framed Parliament seat delimitation as anti-Tamil and anti-South. AICC’s TN in-charge Girish Chodankar claimed it actually benefited DMK by consolidating opposition voters.
🗣️ Identity Language Politics & Dravidian Identity Hindi imposition fears and Tamil identity politics remain DMK’s core plank. BJP contesting in NDA alliance faced backlash over Centre’s language policy, limiting NDA’s seat potential.
👑 Leadership Udhayanidhi Stalin Factor Deputy CM Udhayanidhi Stalin’s growing profile and “Kalaignar 2.0” narrative is both a strength and a vulnerability — feeding opposition’s dynastic politics attack line.
