Brazil’s main Carnival cities are expected to generate more than R$12 billion during Carnival 2026, reflecting increased tourist flows, higher consumption of services, and job creation. To stage the festivities, municipalities are relying on millions of reais in public and private investments for infrastructure, security, and cultural programming.
Home to the world’s largest trio elétrico Carnival, Salvador expects an initial investment of R$60 million to hire performers, according to the city government. In 2025, the festival generated R$1.8 billion for the local economy, and the municipal administration expects to surpass that figure in 2026. Total costs, including infrastructure and public services such as health care, sanitation, and security, will be disclosed after the celebrations.
Recife’s city government projects an economic impact of R$2.7 billion during the Carnival period. The city expects to receive more than 300,000 passengers at its airport and to generate around 60,000 jobs. During the previous Carnival, Recife recorded approximately 3.5 million revelers.
Also in Pernambuco, Olinda aims to maintain the economic performance of last year’s Carnival, when the festivities generated R$1.5 billion, according to Pix transfer data. For 2026, the city plans to invest between R$15 million and R$20 million in the event.
In Belo Horizonte, the municipal government plans to invest R$28 million in Carnival 2026, up from R$20 million the previous year. In 2025, the festival generated R$1.2 billion for the local economy and created about 20,000 direct and indirect jobs. City officials expect a similar economic impact this year.
The capital of Minas Gerais estimates an audience of 6.2 million revelers, reflecting total participation across Carnival blocks and events. The methodology allows the same individual to be counted more than once if they attend multiple festivities.
In Rio de Janeiro, Carnival is expected to exceed the R$5.7 billion generated in 2025. According to Riotur, around 8 million revelers—including residents and tourists—are expected to take part. The federal government has allocated R$12 million for the Special Group samba school parades, while an additional R$40 million has been raised from the private sector.
In São Paulo, the street Carnival is expected to draw 16 million revelers and more than 650 street blocks, according to the city government. In the most recent edition, the event generated R$3.4 billion for the local economy and created around 50,000 jobs. For Carnival 2026, the festivities will receive R$29.2 million in private sponsorship, allocated to logistics, security, sanitation, and infrastructure.
Economist and Insper professor Juliana Inhasz notes that there is always a risk that projected revenues may not fully materialize, but stresses that this is inherent to estimates of this nature.
FGV professor Roberto Kanter highlights that the reliability of such projections depends on “methodological coherence” and the convergence of multiple indicators. “In an essentially physical, large-scale, and diffuse event such as Carnival, economic analysis becomes more robust when it combines different sources of evidence rather than relying on a single aggregate figure,” he says.
According to Kanter, Carnival helps bring forward revenues, reduce seasonality in the sector, and strengthen Brazil’s position as a global cultural destination. Inhasz also emphasizes that the event boosts the hotel, food, and transportation sectors, as well as formal and informal commerce, while contributing to higher income and employability, even if primarily in the short term.
“No other cultural, sporting, or business event concentrates, in such a short period, comparable volumes of movement of people between cities, states, and countries,” Kanter says. “Carnival should be understood not only as a cultural manifestation or popular celebration, but as the country’s main isolated driver of tourist attraction and economic circulation, with relevant effects on income, employment, and international visibility.”
Inhasz believes that diversifying funding sources is also crucial to staging the festivities, both from an economic and a public management standpoint. According to her, public and private budgets play complementary roles.
“If we relied only on public funding, the quality would be much lower. The government would not be able to afford or guarantee everything that is delivered today at these festivals,” she says. “And the private sector alone would have no incentive to do so, nor would it be able to ensure adequate security, urban order, and the infrastructure needed for events to run properly.”
